955
FXUS62 KTBW 140527
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical
moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in
contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL
peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as
isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over
Central and N Florida.

The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at
least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will
then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops
again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall
is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how
much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated
the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and
Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for
water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and
DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening
looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the
next few hours.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the
trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens,
winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more
typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some
drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature,
at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime
conditions return and last into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers are beginning to develop across central terminals,
primarily PGD and SRQ. This trend will continue with a further
development of showers and the return of high IFR to low MVFR
ceilings across all terminals through the early morning hours.
After the mid morning, daytime heating combined with ample
moisture should allow thunderstorms to begin developing,
especially across SWFL. Convection is anticipated to be on and off
through the afternoon and early evening hours. However, some
guidance tries to keep it over southern terminals into the night.
Vicinity showers were kept into the late night hours in line with
this guidance and forecaster thinking. MVFR/IFR conditions along
with erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. South to
southwest winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  91  80 /  50  50  60  30
FMY  88  76  89  77 /  80  70  70  40
GIF  93  76  93  76 /  80  40  70  30
SRQ  91  77  90  78 /  50  60  60  40
BKV  95  72  95  73 /  50  40  60  30
SPG  91  81  91  82 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...LCH/Calhoun