Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
046 FXUS62 KTBW 190744 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 344 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Strong easterly flow driven by the ridging to the north and the developing low in the Gulf will continue to dictate our weather for the next couple of days. A pocket of dry air is currently situated over the state, but a couple of waves of moisture with PWs approaching 2 inches will move westward across the peninsula throughout the day. Because of this we have slightly better chances for precipitation today compared to the past couple of days. Based on the timing of the moisture, the rain chances will be focused more during the earlier part of the day, with POPs generally offshore by the evening time frame. The elevated moisture and corresponding rain chances will lead to near normal high temperatures today with everyone seeing upper 80s to lower 90s. For the latter part of the week, a surface trough and upper level low pressure located east of the Bahamas will approach the southeastern coast of the US. While chances of further tropical development is low, it is expected to bring additional moisture to the state. POPs for Thursday and Friday are expected to tick up with elevated rain chances extending through the weekend. PWs throughout the weekend and even into early next week look to solidly reach around 2 inches. Even with decent rain chances for the peninsula over the next several days, QPF values are only in the 1-2 inch range. Temperatures for the end of the week/weekend will reach into the lower 90s for most, and into the middle 90s along the Nature Coast. The elevated humidity will also lead to heat index values over 100 degrees for much of the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 154 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Stout easterly winds continue this morning with gusts between 25-30 knots expected during the daylight hours. Some MVFR cigs possible this morning. Then, precipitation chances increase by midday. Left PROB30 in for the afternoon time frame. Activity will move west of the area by 22-23Z. Winds will diminish slightly overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Gusty easterly winds continue for the area leading to choppy seas through Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, with SCEC for Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds will begin to diminish some on Thursday afternoon. With the easterly flow, rain and storm chances will increase each evening as convection moves off- shore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Breezy easterly winds are expected for the next couple of days leading to elevated dispersion values. Substantial moisture remains in place over the region with minimum RH values between 50-60 percent each day. Rain chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 92 77 / 60 20 40 20 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 GIF 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 93 76 95 75 / 60 30 50 30 BKV 91 73 92 72 / 60 20 40 20 SPG 92 80 93 80 / 60 30 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Flannery