Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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937 FXUS62 KTBW 190548 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 148 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail across most terminals overnight withe intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible, especially over SW FL through the morning. Showers over the water could be in the vicinity of coastal airports after around 09Z, but should dissipate by the late morning SRQ north. However, there is a chance for showers and storms to develop near PGD/FMY/RSW with a nonzero chance for LAL. Most of this activity should dissipate into the evening. LIght winds become west to northwesterly through the period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The persistent frontal boundary is finally washing out over N FL, but some residual convection has developed along the remnants of this boundary and is pushing through ECFL. THis is of no factor to our area, however. Locally, the only point of note is a few ongoing showers across central and SWFL. With the sun now setting, much of this activity is waning. However, moisture and instability remain higher over SWFL and the adjacent coastal waters. Cannot completely rule out a few overnight showers reforming off the coast, potentially drifting inland. Thus, keeping 20 to 30% POPs for much of the overnight. Right at the coast through the Tampa Bay area, rain chances increase towards tomorrow morning to around 30 to 40% with a light flow and a weak land breeze circulation to initiate convection. Some may drift onshore during the morning hours, quickly dissipating as they do so as the air becomes more stable. Most of the activity for inland areas is expected to initiate along the sea breeze later in the day as the boundary propagates inland. The best chances are from Manatee/Hardee/Highlands south. The flow looks light, so this will probably be slow to occur. However, overall moisture content remains limited and drier air continues to advect into the area in the mid- levels. This keeps rain chances near zero for the nature coast, with the highest POPs inland and across SWFL (50 to 60%). The main adjustments this evening have been to update the aforementioned POPs to reflect the current trends and expected setup for tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 90 74 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 90 75 91 75 / 60 30 50 20 GIF 92 74 93 73 / 40 20 20 10 SRQ 91 75 91 74 / 40 10 30 20 BKV 91 71 91 70 / 20 0 20 10 SPG 91 79 91 78 / 30 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis