541
FXUS62 KTBW 221749
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
149 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weather remains pretty quiet across our area for Sunday and early
next week. Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the
Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. PWs will remain at or below 1.5. The
lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower
acitivty each day with only isolated chances across the area.

Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we
call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest. At the
same time models are showing possible tropical development in the
southern Carribean Sea. IF something develops it would head towards
this break. Right now timing, strength, and where this break will be
is still very uncertain. However, at a minimum we will see moisture
increasing which will result in better storm chances from Wednesday
through next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out
of the northeast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in
Southwest Florida but chances are even slightly lower then
yesterday so kept it out of the TAFs.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weather looks to be quiet for Sunday and early next week as
ridging remains to our north with winds out of the east or
northeast around 5 to 10 knots. There is still a lot of
uncertainity when it comes to possible tropical development in the
southern Carribean Sea and then lift north. At a minimum we will
see winds and seas increasing with hazardous boating conditions
starting on Wednesday through the end of the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  92  76 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  91  76  92  77 /  10  10  30  10
GIF  92  75  93  74 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  76  92  75 /  10   0  20  10
BKV  92  71  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  91  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn