Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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046 FXUS64 KEWX 192334 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 634 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill defined. The flow, while generally from the southern half of the compass, is best defined as light and variable over South-Central Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures and dewpoints are within a couple of degrees of where they were 24 hours ago. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east during the short term period. Models show the low level flow becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through the period. The above normal temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s. Some record warm lows will be possible both nights. High temperatures Friday will be in the 90s. Record highs are 100 and higher. While we do not have any records in the forecast, some places could be within a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper-level ridging will be at it`s strongest and centered over South Central Texas on Saturday. It should begin to flatten and weaken somewhat by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for a cold front to surge southward into the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau late Sunday. Our next shot at rain probably won`t arrive until at least Tuesday as another upper-level trough approaches from the west. What happens beyond Wednesday is very much in question. When guidance can get a better grasp on what sort of tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean and what to do with the 500mb High as it weakens and slides eastward, it will determine how the large scale pattern evolves next week. In any matter, it looks like we should see an end to the above normal temperatures and replace it with near normal highs by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Sea breeze showers have moved into the VCNTYs of SAT/SSF in the past couple hours with the partial help of a nearby 700 mb disturbance. This disturbance should drift west and bring a brief shower closer to DRT if anything at all; we`ll show no more convection to impact the TAF sites after 0030Z this evening. Breezy evening winds Wednesday picked up the amount of low level moisture and cloud cover to set up several hours of MVFR conditions for most of the area this morning. Our winds this evening may be slightly lower but with the warm dew points, we`ll keep with a near persistence pattern in regards to the onset and departure of the low clouds at each TAF site. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 98 80 97 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 97 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...18 Aviation...18