937
FXUS62 KTBW 190548
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
148 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail across most terminals overnight withe
intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible, especially over SW FL
through the morning. Showers over the water could be in the
vicinity of coastal airports after around 09Z, but should
dissipate by the late morning SRQ north. However, there is a
chance for showers and storms to develop near PGD/FMY/RSW with a
nonzero chance for LAL. Most of this activity should dissipate
into the evening. LIght winds become west to northwesterly
through the period.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The persistent frontal boundary is finally washing out over N FL,
but some residual convection has developed along the remnants of
this boundary and is pushing through ECFL. THis is of no factor to
our area, however. Locally, the only point of note is a few ongoing
showers across central and SWFL. With the sun now setting, much of
this activity is waning. However, moisture and instability remain
higher over SWFL and the adjacent coastal waters. Cannot completely
rule out a few overnight showers reforming off the coast,
potentially drifting inland. Thus, keeping 20 to 30% POPs for much
of the overnight.

Right at the coast through the Tampa Bay area, rain chances increase
towards tomorrow morning to around 30 to 40% with a light flow and a
weak land breeze circulation to initiate convection. Some may drift
onshore during the morning hours, quickly dissipating as they do
so as the air becomes more stable. Most of the activity for inland
areas is expected to initiate along the sea breeze later in the
day as the boundary propagates inland. The best chances are from
Manatee/Hardee/Highlands south. The flow looks light, so this will
probably be slow to occur. However, overall moisture content
remains limited and drier air continues to advect into the area in
the mid- levels. This keeps rain chances near zero for the nature
coast, with the highest POPs inland and across SWFL (50 to 60%).

The main adjustments this evening have been to update the
aforementioned POPs to reflect the current trends and expected setup
for tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  90  75  91  75 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  20  10
SRQ  91  75  91  74 /  40  10  30  20
BKV  91  71  91  70 /  20   0  20  10
SPG  91  79  91  78 /  30  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis