939
FXUS62 KTBW 200911
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
511 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TONIGHT)...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A drier start to this morning compared to yesterday with ACARS
sounding showing PWAT values around 1.3 inches, and it is also
visible on the water vapor band on satellite. This is as trough
moving off the Northeast coast and associated boundary sagging
south continue to exit the area. At the same time, high pressure
begins to build from the north supporting north to northeasterly
winds along with drier air across the Sunshine State today. As a
result, showers and storms will be isolated to scattered this
afternoon with the highest chances for areas over the interior and
south of the I-4 corridor. Afternoon highs remain in the 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-THU)...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Going into the weekend, troughiness along the US East Coast and
over the state is pushed out by ridge of high pressure as it builds
through next week. This will keep northeasterly winds and
slightly drier conditions in place limiting showers and storm
coverage during the first half of the week. Then, model guidance
bring n increase in moisture fir later in the week and the
potential for an area of low pressure to develop over southern
portions of the Gulf of Mexico. We will continue to monitor and
update the forecast as needed.

In terms of temperatures, conditions remain fairly consistent
with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the triple digits
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions expected overnight across most terminals, except
there is potential for radiational fog to develop as skies clear
and moist enough conditions are in place, especially near LAL. On
the other side, north to northeasterly winds prevail pushing
slightly drier over the area. This should keep POPs low with LAL
having a nonzero chance of showers or isolated storm to be near
during the afternoon. However, confidence is not high enough at
this time with highest chances expected to be east of the site.
Going into the evening, winds become easterly and increase
slightly before diminishing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure begins to build in from the north into the weekend
keeping north to northeast up to 15 knots. An easterly surge is
anticipated each evening during this time. Though drier air should
keep lower rain chances over the weekend and into next week,
isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible during the
evening and early morning. No headlines are expected during this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Drier air is anticipated today as north to northeasterly winds set
up. This should limit shower and storm activity in most locations
with the highest chances over the interior and SW FL. High pressure
builds into the area through the weekend with drier air staying in
place and lower rain chances. Humidity values remain above critical
levels with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  74  91  74 /  20  10  20   0
FMY  92  74  92  75 /  40  10  30  10
GIF  92  73  92  74 /  30  10  30   0
SRQ  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  91  70  92  70 /  20  10  20   0
SPG  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...ADavis