Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
703
FXUS64 KEWX 080902
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The 07Z surface analysis shows a stationary front across the
southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country with a low pressure
system to the southwest of Val Verde County. Another stationary
front is analyzed from the Texas panhandle to the south and into the
northern part of Val Verde County. The latter frontal boundary is
forecast to slowly advance to the east-southeast overnight and
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
ahead and along the front through the period. Some strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
Edwards Plateau mid to late Friday morning and over parts of the
Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77 in the afternoon
and evening as the front pushes into east Texas. The main weather
hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. The convective
activity should stay isolated due to lack of large scale support,
but there is enough shear in place for rotating cells and therefore,
can`t rule out an isolated tornado. Also, winds are forecast to
increase within the boundary layer mid to late Friday morning with
pwats between 1.6 to 1.7 inches which could result in pockets of
heavy rain. The threat for heavy pockets of rain continues in the
afternoon mainly across the Hill County and along and east of
Highway 77 as the frontal boundary slows down is eastward
progression with pwats ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches based of GFS
and RAP forecast soundings.

With cloudy skies taking over the local area for most of the day,
high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s across
the Hill Country to mid and upper 80s across the coastal Plains. By
this evening, the frontal boundary is likely to be exiting our local
area. However, an upper level southwest flow is still through the
overnight hours as an upper level low pressure system pushes into
the central Plains resulting in isolated to low end chances for
showers and storms across portions of the eastern counties of south
central Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s
over the northern part of Val Verde to lower 60s along the coastal
Plains.

Saturday should stay dry for the most part with early clouds across
the coastal Plains and then dissipating during the afternoon for
mostly sunny skies. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to upper
70s and even lower 80s over portions of the coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Warmer conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday under zonal flow
aloft. High temperatures back into the low to mid 80s are forecast.
Tuesday night into Wednesday an upper level shortwave trough passes
through the Plains and deepens over the eastern CONUS Thursday. This
will send a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday. There
remains a large spread among the global models and their ensemble
members with how deep the shortwave trough becomes. Almost all of
the GFS and CMC ensemble members are dry with the cold front.
However, a handful of ECM members are still indicating precipitation
along the cold front. We will continue to watch model trends, but at
this time our forecast does not call for precipitation. Cooler
conditions are forecast Thursday, with low temperatures in the 40s
and 50s and highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Warm temperatures and uniform SE winds shut down the afternoon rain
chances early over most areas by early this evening. Intermittent
showers and a few storms will continue where the cold front is taking
shape over the Edwards Plateau. For the I-35 corridor, TAF sites
will show minimal activity overnight with a nod toward persistence on
cloud heights. A more moderate and steady SE sfc wind will probably
mean no LIFR clouds and a shorter period of IFR cigs. A drying trend
in the 00Z models has prompted a draw-down on PoPs, especially
SAT/SSF. We opted for Prob30 groups for that area while rain prevails
at AUS in the early part of the day. A few stronger storms could form
near the front which should approach AUS toward 23Z The cold front
from this storm system appears on track to reach DRT by mid mid-
morning and the I-35 corridor by 00Z. Some light post-frontal showers
will still be possible behind the front over I-35 Friday night, but
VFR cigs are still expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  58  76  57 /  50  50  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  58  75  56 /  50  50  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  60  79  59 /  30  40  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            78  53  75  55 /  60  30   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  54  77  57 /  70   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  56  74  55 /  60  50  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             80  58  78  57 /  60  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  58  77  56 /  30  50  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  61  75  59 /  30  50  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  61  78  60 /  30  20   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           85  63  80  61 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17