Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240854
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms along a frontal boundary
is currently draped across Texas from Texarkana all the way into
Terrell County. This widespread feature is now entering our CWA with
a strong storm in Val Verde County. These storms are expected to
continue a south and southeastward progression throughout the day. An
area of upper level divergence as well as the position and
orientation of the boundary may lead to a training environment that
could lead to higher rain totals and possible flash flooding. A Flash
Flood is in effect from 7am this morning through this evening for
parts of the eastern Hill Country as well as the Austin Metro area.
Widespread totals for this area will be from 1 to 3 inches, with some
isolated areas getting up to 5 inches. For areas outside of the
Watch area, including the San Antonio metro, could see 1/2 to 2
inches with isolated higher amounts.

Along with the potential for heavy rain, there is also a slight risk
for these storms to be severe. After daybreak, diurnal heating,
although slow due to cloud cover, along with moist low level flow
will further destabilize the environment with CAPE values of 1500 -
2000 J/kg. Within these severe storms that may develop, damaging
winds and large hail (up to golf- ball size) are the main threats,
though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Timing for the
highest severe and heavy rain threat in the I-35 corridor, will be
from 2pm into the evening, likely affecting rush hour traffic.

As this feature progresses across the CWA, clearing of precip as well
as clouds from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Thursday will be mostly clear with highs in the upper 70s and low
80s with a northwest wind that will slowly bring in drier air.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Thursday night lows will be near average in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Heading into the weekend, sunny and dry with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Winds return out of the south on Friday and continue
through the week with clouds returning on Monday. Dry forecast for
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

UPDATE...
06Z Aviation forecast below.

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are developing across South Central Texas could become
IFR in some locations toward the early morning. The ceilings are
expected to rise back into MVFR 16Z-18Z, outside of convection. A
potent upper level storm system and associated cold front will
generate widespread showers and storms today into this evening across
South Central Texas. Several rounds of SHRAs are forecast through
the morning hours across the region and timing is problematic in the
TAFs. Does appear best area for TSRAs through the morning will be
near and north of a DRT-ERV-BMQ line. A line of storms may then
develop mid afternoon into the early evening farther southeast,
impacting the I-35 corridor including AUS/SAT/SSF. Some of these
storms could become strong to severe with wind gusts in severe storms
in excess of 50kts. A few storms could contain hail as well. The
system is forecast to move east of the TAF sites from west to east
in the evening. Winds E to SE through the overnight hours around
6-12 kts, with some gusts closer to 20 kts near DRT. Outside of any
convection, the winds are forecast to increase mid morning to around
10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. A N wind will develop behind
the cold front this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  59  80  59  83 / 100  80  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  59  79  59  83 / 100  80  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  58  80  59  83 / 100  70  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  57  77  57  80 / 100  80  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  57  86  59  88 /  80  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  58  78  59  81 / 100  80  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  55  83  58  87 / 100  40   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  58  80  58  83 / 100  70  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  59  78  60  84 /  80  90  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  58  81  60  85 / 100  60  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  57  83  60  84 / 100  60  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening
for Blanco-Burnet-Gillespie-Hays-Llano-Travis-Williamson.

&&

$$

Aviation...Runyen
Short-Term/Long-Term...YB


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