Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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703 FXUS64 KEWX 080902 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 302 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The 07Z surface analysis shows a stationary front across the southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country with a low pressure system to the southwest of Val Verde County. Another stationary front is analyzed from the Texas panhandle to the south and into the northern part of Val Verde County. The latter frontal boundary is forecast to slowly advance to the east-southeast overnight and Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast ahead and along the front through the period. Some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Edwards Plateau mid to late Friday morning and over parts of the Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77 in the afternoon and evening as the front pushes into east Texas. The main weather hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. The convective activity should stay isolated due to lack of large scale support, but there is enough shear in place for rotating cells and therefore, can`t rule out an isolated tornado. Also, winds are forecast to increase within the boundary layer mid to late Friday morning with pwats between 1.6 to 1.7 inches which could result in pockets of heavy rain. The threat for heavy pockets of rain continues in the afternoon mainly across the Hill County and along and east of Highway 77 as the frontal boundary slows down is eastward progression with pwats ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches based of GFS and RAP forecast soundings. With cloudy skies taking over the local area for most of the day, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to mid and upper 80s across the coastal Plains. By this evening, the frontal boundary is likely to be exiting our local area. However, an upper level southwest flow is still through the overnight hours as an upper level low pressure system pushes into the central Plains resulting in isolated to low end chances for showers and storms across portions of the eastern counties of south central Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s over the northern part of Val Verde to lower 60s along the coastal Plains. Saturday should stay dry for the most part with early clouds across the coastal Plains and then dissipating during the afternoon for mostly sunny skies. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to upper 70s and even lower 80s over portions of the coastal Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Warmer conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday under zonal flow aloft. High temperatures back into the low to mid 80s are forecast. Tuesday night into Wednesday an upper level shortwave trough passes through the Plains and deepens over the eastern CONUS Thursday. This will send a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday. There remains a large spread among the global models and their ensemble members with how deep the shortwave trough becomes. Almost all of the GFS and CMC ensemble members are dry with the cold front. However, a handful of ECM members are still indicating precipitation along the cold front. We will continue to watch model trends, but at this time our forecast does not call for precipitation. Cooler conditions are forecast Thursday, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 Warm temperatures and uniform SE winds shut down the afternoon rain chances early over most areas by early this evening. Intermittent showers and a few storms will continue where the cold front is taking shape over the Edwards Plateau. For the I-35 corridor, TAF sites will show minimal activity overnight with a nod toward persistence on cloud heights. A more moderate and steady SE sfc wind will probably mean no LIFR clouds and a shorter period of IFR cigs. A drying trend in the 00Z models has prompted a draw-down on PoPs, especially SAT/SSF. We opted for Prob30 groups for that area while rain prevails at AUS in the early part of the day. A few stronger storms could form near the front which should approach AUS toward 23Z The cold front from this storm system appears on track to reach DRT by mid mid- morning and the I-35 corridor by 00Z. Some light post-frontal showers will still be possible behind the front over I-35 Friday night, but VFR cigs are still expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 83 58 76 57 / 50 50 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 58 75 56 / 50 50 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 60 79 59 / 30 40 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 78 53 75 55 / 60 30 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 54 77 57 / 70 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 56 74 55 / 60 50 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 80 58 78 57 / 60 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 58 77 56 / 30 50 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 61 75 59 / 30 50 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 61 78 60 / 30 20 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 85 63 80 61 / 30 20 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...76 Aviation...17