Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 270920
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
420 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The Nighttime Microphysics channel shows high clouds moving across
the area from east to west. The reasoning behind the flow aloft is
because of an upper level inverted trough pushing across the area.
The upper level inverted trough weakens as an upper level ridging
develops across the Hill Country this afternoon. At lower levels, a
southerly flow is in control with moisture increasing late this
afternoon and early evening. Some of the HiRes models suggest
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity affecting parts of the
western Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau later this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with
highs in the mid to upper 90s across most areas and up to 101 for
areas along the Rio Grande.

The weather pattern chances for Wednesday as another upper level
inverted trough associated with a tropical wave moves across the
area. With the increase of moisture across the area comes better
chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly during the Wednesday
afternoon period. Wednesday`s high temperatures are forecast to be
on the cool side of model guidance due to cloud coverage and the
potential for showers. Rainfall amounts should stay below the one
quarter mark with most places getting one tenth of an inch or less
during the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The upper level trough will be moving away to the west Wednesday
night allowing the ridge to build back over South Texas. There will
be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Rio Grande
Plains Wednesday evening. Then subsidence from the ridge will end
most convection over our CWA for the rest of the week. The exception
will be low chances for seabreeze showers and storms over the Coastal
Plains counties each afternoon Thursday through Saturday. With the
strong upper ridge any cells will not get very far inland. The upper
ridge will strengthen further and end all chances for rain Sunday and
Monday.

After slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday, highs will climb back
up through the end of the week. By Saturday all but the highest
elevations will see highs in the upper 90s to near 103. These hot
temperatures will continue Sunday and Monday. Some parts of the east
and south could reach heat advisory criteria with heat indices of 108
or higher Saturday through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  76  95  75  96 /  -   10  30  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  75  94  73  96 /  -   10  30  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  94  73  96 /  -   10  20  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  75  94  74  95 /  10  10  30  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78  99  76 100 /   0  10  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  75  94  74  97 /  10  10  30  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  94  73  94 /  -   10  20  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  74  95  73  96 /  -   10  20  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  76  94  75  97 /  10  10  30  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  75  94  74  95 /  -   10  20  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  95  75  96 /  -   -   20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...17
Long-Term...05


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