Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260710
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a
dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
reach the area Monday night into Tuesday bringing good chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The front will retreat northward
Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms possible through late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high off the east coast and mid-level ridging will lead to
another dry day with very little in the way of cloud cover. Highs
near the coast will end up a little below climo, mainly from low
level easterly flow. Farther inland highs will be near to slightly
above climo where the ocean influence is less and subsidence aloft
is a little stronger. Mid-level ridge begins a slow weakening
process tonight, with increasing moisture throughout the column. The
increasing moisture and decreasing subsidence will lead to some
cloud cover after midnight, especially west of I-95. Lows tonight
near to slightly below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front should be crossing the Appalachians and moving into the
western Carolina 12Z Monday morning. Prefrontal surface flow will be
generally out of the south ahead of the front, which is expected to
cross the CWA roughly 07Z-11Z Tuesday, then stall just off the
coast. Winds will shift to NE and temps will fall below climo behind
the front, however precipitable water, which will surge to around 2
inches ahead of the boundary, will remain elevated through Tuesday
night. With the mid and upper-level trough axis remaining west of
the forecast area, and flow aloft remaining WSW, weak perturbations
will act to enhance convective potential on Tuesday. Potential will
continue through Tuesday night, however focus should eventually
shift offshore with loss of instability over land.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid-level trough will push off the coast Wednesday allowing
heights to rise as the surface boundary returns north. There will be
an opportunity for scattered diurnal convection to fire Wednesday
afternoon, but showers and tstms should be more isolated Thu-Sat as
dry air builds in aloft along with the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anticipate VFR conditions continuing through the next 24 hours.
Only possible exception would be MVFR fog at inland sites right
around daybreak. However, potential for this is very low given
limited boundary layer moisture (in most areas RH is lower at
this time compared to last night) while boundary layer winds
appear to be similar in strength. Winds will remain east to
southeast today with speeds increasing to around 10 kt in the
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Monday with possible MVFR
conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Surface high centered northeast of the waters
will maintain east to southeast flow today. Winds will veer to
southerly overnight as the center of the high shifts east-
southeast. Gradient will keep speeds on the low end of the 10 to
15 kt range. Seas 2 to 3 ft continue with an easterly swell
being slightly more dominant than a weak easterly wind wave.

Monday through Thursday: Southerly winds Monday ahead of a cold
front will be on the order of 10 kt in a rather weak pressure
gradient. The front looks to move off the coast late Monday night.
Although a shift to NE is expected in the early morning hours Tue,
the gradient will remain weak, so there may be some variability in
winds direction at times. The front is expected to stall just off
the coast, and depending on exactly where the boundary lies, winds
may vary between NE and ESE at times Tue night into Wed morning. The
front will move back inland Wed afternoon, but the gradient does
appear to remain notably weak into Thu, which could lead to some
temporary swings in wind direction.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/CRM


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