860
FXUS62 KILM 111143
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
643 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low system will exit off the coast this morning, bringing an
end to the wintry mix concerns. Bitterly cold and dry weather
takes over again later today, continuing through much of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The low pressure center has moved just off the coast of Hatteras
at 11 UTC and deepened to 999 mb. This has pushed the coastal
front back offshore and the temperatures in the lower 50s from
Wilmington to Georgetown are back in the 30s. Therefore will
update the temperatures along the coast.

The light rain has has shifted off the coast and expect the
rest of the day to be dry. Will drop the Winter Weather Advisory
just before 7 AM.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper-level trough is passing across the region this morning,
and at the surface, a low over coastal Northeast South Carolina
is moving to the northeast toward Hatteras by sunrise. In
response to this low, the coastal front has pulled onshore. In
response, the temperatures along the coast have rebounded from
the lower 30s over the coastal counties and have risen to the
lower 50s from Georgetown to Wilmington in the past several
hours. Inland, the temperatures have slowly risen above
freezing, mainly east of I-95 and near freezing west of I-95.
As the low moves to the northeast and deepens, the winds will
become northwest, and the coastal front will shift off the
coast. This wind shift will allow the cooler temperatures inland
to return to the coast.

As precipitation continues over the area at or near freezing,
the Winter Weather Advisory will continue into early Saturday
morning. The skies will clear by late afternoon, with the highs
expected to reach the mid-40s inland to the upper 40s on the
immediate coast. Winds are expected to be gusty this afternoon
before weakening after sunset. Lows tonight will drop in the
lower 20s inland and the mid-20s at the coast. Any water that
remains on the ground will likely freeze again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly quiet forecast period here. Cold high pressure sticks around
Sunday, allowing highs to only reach the mid 40s, albeit under
plenty of January sunshine. Lows Sunday night in the low-to-mid 20s
inland, near 30 at the coast.

Monday gets only slightly more interesting, with a cold front
pushing through the area. This brings increased moisture mostly in
the 600-400 mb layer, which results in an increase in high clouds.
Not much in the way of rain chances here, with only Williamsburg and
Georgetown Counties have a shot at a brief shower or two. Highs in
the upper 40s to near 50. Lows in the mid 20s inland, near 30 at the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much ado about nothing at this point, with bitterly cold and
dry conditions continuing. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 on
Tuesday drop down to the low-to-mid 40s Wednesday and Thursday,
after a series of dry cold fronts bring in more Arctic air.
Precipitable water values Wednesday may only be around a tenth
of an inch, which is near the climatological minimums seen among
MHX, HAT, and CHS soundings. Those PWATs represent something
you`d see out in Arizona or Wyoming, not the Carolinas.

Lows each night in the teens to mid 20s. Cold low temperatures and
elevated winds may lead to wind chills at 15 degrees or lower
Tuesday night, which would prompt a Cold Weather Advisory.

May finally start to have a warming trend on Friday, with highs in
the lower 50s. Ironic, because these values are still below seasonal
norms for mid-January.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure is deepening and has shifted to the northeast off
the coast of Hatteras. IFR ceilings are expected through the
first part of the morning with ceilings lifting to MVFR by late
morning and VFR by late afternoon. The biggest issue will be
the strong gusty northwest winds during the day with sustained
winds of 15 to 18 knots and gust in the mid 20 knot range. Winds
are expected to drop below 6 knots from the north Saturday
night.

Extended Outlook...High pressure
will bring drier air and a return to mostly VFR later Sunday
through Monday. A disturbance on Tuesday and Wednesday could
bring brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A coastal low along the Northeast South
Carolina coast will shift off Hatteras by sunrise. This low will
deepen, and the pressure gradient will increase the offshore
flow. The northwest winds will increase to 25 knots this morning
and diminish to 10 to 15 knots by sunrise Sunday. With the
offshore flow, winds will range from 3 feet near shore to 6 to 7
feet, 10 to 20 miles off the coast. Overnight, the seas will
subside to 3 to 4 feet by sunrise Sunday. Thus will continue the
small craft advisory over the coast waters.

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds out of the north at 5-10 kts Sunday
gradually back to the northwest by Monday, increasing to 10-15 kts
through the end of the extended marine forecast period. Seas mostly
1-2 ft, except for a slight build up to 1-3 ft Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...IGB/RH