Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 020906
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
406 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will produce dry weather today. Low pressure
developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a soaking rain
to the Carolinas tonight into Wednesday. Milder and drier
weather develops on Thursday before a dry cold front brings
another shot of cool air on Friday. Low pressure may develop
this weekend with the potential for cool and unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc cold front to stall and orient itself east-west across central
Fl and into the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. High pressure
will briefly affect the Carolinas today with brisk NE winds. The low
and mid-levels dry out however a nice canopy of opaque ci/cs to
remain overhead as viewed with various model RH time height series.
Excellent CAA and drier air influx will result in widespread 50s for
max temps today...a far cry from the 70s and 80s the past 3 days!!
Winter, calender-wise, remains ongoing! Models indicate a potent mid-
level s/w trof to traverse along the Gulf Coast States with it`s
associated sfc low hooking up with the stalled front late today or
tonight. The sfc front is not expected to lift very far north due to
the upper s/w trof this far south and also it`s progged to remain
positively tilted. Thus, the low will pass by south and remain east
of the FA as it moves offshore by sunset Wed. As a result, looking
for a good soaking light to moderate stratiform rain with QPF from
this rain event ranging from 0.75 inches northernmost NC CWA, to
around 1.50 inches southernmost SC CWA. The rain will overspread
the FA from south to north tonight, and peak across the FA
around midday Wed, finally ending by dusk Wed. Stayed a degree
or 3 below guidance for tonights lows and Wed highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will track farther offshore Wed eve with
diminishing offshore winds and clearing skies into Thurs as high
pressure builds in from the west with weak WAA and fairly zonal
flow aloft. Temps should jump up above normal on Thurs well into
the 60s, under sunny skies. Overnight lows will be within a few
degrees of 40 both Wed night and Thurs night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep mid to upper trough running down the east coast will shift
offshore on Fri with deep NW flow following a dry cold front.
This CAA will keep temps closer near or below 60 on Fri with
plenty of sunshine. High pressure will will lose its grip on
the Carolinas heading into the weekend as low pressure system
takes shape over the Gulf Coast. Cutoff low swings
eastward across the Gulf coast opening up with sfc low
developing and tracking east across Florida. This low will
track off to the E-NE running south of the local forecast area.
Latest model runs are now showing GFS more aggressive in
northward extent of lift spreading clouds and pcp into the area
on Sat, while the ECMWF has now backed off. Overall, expect
clouds and low end rain chances on Sat, especially over SC and
coastal areas. Temps will remain on the cool side Fri and Sat with
mid 50s to near 60 for highs and 30s for lows. Dry high
pressure will build in on Sun as low tracks off to the east into
the Atlantic, with increasing sunshine and warming temps into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Secondary cold surge of N-NNE winds at 8 to 12 kts will
dominate early this morning. Tightened sfc pg during daylight
Tue will keep NE winds busy, especially at the coastal
terminals. With mid-level clouds currently sliding off the
mainland, a blanket of high level clouds will take it`s place
dominating the area terminals for the duration. The stalled
front south of the region today, will begin to meander
northward. Overrunning moisture in the mid-levels will reach the
3 SC terminals with a PROB30 group included for the potential
for patchy light rain.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and rain
will develop tonight and continue thru Wed as low pressure
quickly tracks across the SE States and then offshore.
VFR conditions will return Wed night and continue thru Fri with
high pressure dominating. Another area of low pressure moving
by to our south could bring IFR/MVFR conditions Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Tightened sfc pg and CAA and dry surge will result in SCA
conditions thru atleast midday for all waters. With the front
oriented east-west and stalled across Central FL, the center of
the sfc high will drop to the VA-NC region during today. This
may temporarily drop winds and resulting seas below SCA
thresholds for the ILM NC waters this aftn into this evening due
to the relaxed sfc pg. However, potent s/w trof aloft will help
ignite sfc low pressure development along the stalled front
tonight. Models indicate the low to intensify once it reaches
off the GA coast by daybreak Wed. It will further intensify as
it tracks ENE over the Atlantic offshore waters during Wed,
remaining south and east of the local waters during it`s
passage. The sfc pg tightens with SCA conditions across all
waters later tonight and continuing thruout Wed. The sfc low
remains compact but there is a threat for Gale force wind gusts
especially across the ILM SC Waters at it`s closest approach
Wed. Looking at mainly NE wind directions thru tonight, backing
to the north as the low pushes east of the waters during Wed.

Wednesday night through Saturday...
Stiff northerly winds on the back end of exiting low pressure
Wed night will produce SCA conditions, but will drop out
steadily through Thurs as low moves farther away from the
Carolinas. By Thurs night, light northerly flow will allow seas
to drop to less than 3 ft as high pressure extends down from the
Upper Great Lakes.

High pressure will migrate eastward off the Delmarva coast this
weekend as low pressure moves across the Gulf coast. The winds
between these two systems will veer winds around from the N on
Fri to the NE-E into the weekend. Intensity of winds will depend
on the exact location and strength of this low pressure system
as it tracks south of the area. Overall, it looks like low will
deepen enough to drive N-NE winds up to at least 15 to 20 kts
through late Sat which in turn will push seas up into SCA
thresholds late Sat into Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RGZ



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