407
FXUS62 KILM 211731
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
131 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front remain north of the area today and tonight as weak
upper level energy approaches from the SW. This will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy
rain is possible but the storms should move quickly enough to
preclude widespread flooding concerns. Highs today should reach
the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A tropical air mass will maintain rain chances on Monday.
Subtle shortwaves streaming northeastward will focus the
majority of shower activity inland along the Piedmont trough.
Some isolated showers are likely to develop along the sea breeze
as well. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight
lows in the low and mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues this week despite a ridge creeping
into eastern portions of the area. Deep moisture will maintain
shower chances inland with daily initiation along the Piedmont
trough. Focus of showers appears to remain inland, but hard to
say at this point given the lack of organized lift. Generally,
expect a chance of showers and storms along the coast with
better chances of afternoon storms inland. Temperatures each day
in the lower 90s and lows in the low and mid 70s.

Ridge weakens late next week and shower chances may see a slight
increase as a surface trough approaches the region. While the
forecast does reflect this slight increase, its hard to say
showers will be more than scattered as this feature appears weak
in latest model guidance. Temperatures slightly cooler behind
the exiting ridge and approaching trough, upper 80s expected
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected but scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon could reduce visibilities to MVFR levels especially at
KLBT and KFLO. Also, a weak short wave will bring an impulse up
the coast mainly after 06 UTC. KILM has the best chance of
seeing TS and slightly less chances at KCRE and KMYR. So have
included a PROB30 for these storms.

After sunrise, the convection that is expected to the southwest
will move close to KLBT and KCRE so have a Prob30 for that
wave.

Extended Outlook... Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW
winds of 15 KT or less with seas of 2 to 3 FT today and 3 to 4
FT tonight.

Monday through Thursday Night... Bermuda high brings
consistency southerly flow during the afternoon between 15-20
knots. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely each night during
the diurnal maximum. Coverage will decrease during the middle
of next week as a mid level ridge over the western Atlantic
builds westward. SE swell remains 2-3 feet at around 9 seconds
through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...ILM