Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 030816
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
416 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures and humidity begin to increase today as high
pressure moves further offshore. Multiple shower chances this
week with the best chance on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
High pressure should bring cool and quiet weather next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5H ridge axis slides off the NC Coast by sunrise this morning.
Already evident is the increase in moisture thru the atm column
with winds aloft to become SSW in the low levels and SW above
during today. Should see more clouds than sun today especially
inland. A weak mid-level s/w trof will move from the mid-
Mississippi Valley to the DelMarVa Coast tonight. The far inland
counties, ie. along and west of the I-95 corridor, will be
closest to the dynamics associated with this upper s/w trof.
This will influence convection chances as well as it`s severity
this aftn/evening with isolated strong/svr wind gusts possible
and hail. Will include this isolated risk in the HWO. Flow aloft
veers to a WSW direction late tonight thru Tue with only an
indirect moisture feed from the Gulf. Low levels veer from SSW-
SW with moisture remaining avbl for cu development Tue but some
drier air in the mid and upper levels evident Tue in RH Time
Height series. Will still indicate a convective threat Tue but
not as robust or like the potential severity threat of today.
Temps will be highly marine influenced today given the dominant
S-SSW sfc wind direction heightened by the aftn/evening sea
breeze. Add a slightly more westerly component in the low levels
Tue, and max temps could break the 90 degree barrier inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shower chances will continue on Tuesday night ahead of a slow-
moving cold front. Instability should allow for isolated
thunderstorms into Tuesday night with wind fields likely to
limit our severe weather potential. Southerly winds ahead of the
front will continue to advect warm, moist air and keep dew
points elevated into Wednesday morning. As such, expect a humid
evening with overnight lows near 70. Very little movement with
the front on Wednesday as it remains to our west, providing a
fetch of warm air from our south. Dry advection in the upper-
levels on Wednesday will hinder widespread shower chances. Have
kept a chance of rain in the forecast, due to the additional
forcing from the frontal boundary as it pushes eastward, but
soundings show a large layer of dry air above 700mb that will be
difficult to overcome. Highs on Wednesday should still climb
into the upper 80s due to the southerly fetch despite overcast
cirrus and increasing shower chances. Cold front moves through
the area late Wednesday or Wednesday night and winds behind the
front will become northerly and northeasterly as a weak wedge of
high pressure attempts to build into the area. Slightly drier
and cooler air on Thursday morning as temperatures start the day
in the lower 60s or upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Slow-moving cold front will stall offshore early Thursday as a
weak wedge develops over VA, NC, and northern SC. Surface high
pressure will build into the area throughout the day and will
limit shower chances over most of NC given the dry mid and
upper-level environment behind the front. With the boundary in
the vicinity, will keep a slight chance of showers, mainly for
coastal SC near the higher dew points. On Thursday evening, an
upper trough will dig southward into the southeastern US. The
interaction with this upper trough will spawn a weak disturbance
along the deteriorating edge of the wedge over central NC and
SC. This low will strengthen as it races eastward along the
southern edge. The environment ahead of the digging trough is
quite dry with most of the moisture being advected into the area
by the trough itself. With this setup, expect scattered showers
across the area late Thursday into Thursday night, but QPF is
likely to remain below a tenth of an inch due to poor saturation
above 8k ft AGL. Northerly flow develops behind the exiting low
pressure system for Friday with cooler temperatures (well below
average) in the lower 70s. Quiet weather continues through the
weekend with high pressure dominating. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Saturday with a rapid warming trend taking place
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to start off the 06Z TAF period. Increasing chances of vcsh
and MVFR ceilings across the inland terminals as a warm front
develops and lifts north of the area. Main area of pcpn should
remain closer to the warm front during this morning. Increasing
moisture at all levels under SSW-SW flow thru the atm column.
Instability increases by midday and persists into the evening.
Will include 6 hour PROB30 group to account for best time for
convective threat. Winds SSE-S aob 10 kt will increase by
daytime mid-morning with SSW-SW 10-15 kt g20+ kt possible,
especially across the coastal terminals aided by the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with periodic MVFR/IFR threat
from convection Mon Night through Wed. Best convective threat
will occur Wed ahead of a CFP. Possible MVFR conditions again
Thu into Fri due to a stalled front in the vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night... CFP during the predawn Mon hrs will be
followed with winds veering to the WSW by daybreak and quickly
to WNW there- after...at around 15 kt with few gusts up to 20 kt
early on due to an influx of drier air. The gradient remains
tightened ahead of a secondary CFP slated for Mon evening. This
front drops down from the north. Winds become northerly after
FROPA again around 15 kt with g20 kt. The gustiness in response
to a quick CAA surge. The sfc pg will relax considerably Tue
aftn with winds nearly becoming variable in direction at 10 kt
or less. Seas thru today will be slow to subside eventhough a
decent offshore trajectory will occur. The slowness is due to
the "pseudo or fresh" southerly swell at 7 to 8 second periods,
taking longer to dissipate. Short period, wind driven waves,
will become the norm during Tue. Some underlying backswell from
the North Atlantic lows remains prevalent attm and may become
more noticeable and sneak back into the local waters beginning
late Tue.

Tuesday Night through Friday... A surface cold front will
slowly approach the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gradient
ahead of the front will produce southerly winds 15-20 knots
through Wednesday afternoon. Isolated gusts to 25 knots are
possible, but at the moment not expecting widespread impacts.
Seas expected to remain 3-5 feet. Front continues its slow push
eastward on Wednesday and will finally push offshore by early
Wednesday evening. Winds become NW behind the front and wind
speeds fall to 10-15 knots with building high pressure
overnight. Winds become NE during the day on Thursday and
westerly on Friday as a weak wave of low pressure passes to our
north. Seas improve to around 2-3 feet late Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21


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