Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 190533
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1233 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through mid week bringing dry
weather and slowly warming temperatures. A cold front will
likely bring our next rain chances Thursday night and Friday
before drier and cooler weather returns to start the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with slowly dropping down through the 30s and
dense canopy of cirrus shifting eastward off the coast but
leaving some mid level clouds into today.

Updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cool and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure
prevails. Thick cirrus deck lingers overhead, with the edge of the
clouds over western Carolinas slowly inching eastward as an upper
shortwave moves across TN. Will see skies clear from west to east
after midnight, with calm winds at the surface allowing for quick
cooling to the low 30s by morning. Monday will be quiet with clear
skies, outside of a few passing high clouds, and high temps in the
upper 50s/near 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
There is a poorly defined pressure gradient in place through the
period. A weak sense of CAA will linger behind the well offshore
coastal storm to bring two slightly cool nights whereas ample
sunshine brings a seasonable Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure still nosing in from the north. The first few nights
of the long term will be a few degrees below climatology but full
sunshine is still progged to bring a good 4000ft of mixing for
seasonable temperatures by day. A southerly component takes over on
Thursday allowing for a 5-8 degree warmup from Wednesday`s highs
even as increasing cirrus level clouds dim the sunshine. The
increased cloud cover will pair with the southerly flow for a mild
Thursday night. Rain chances ramp up over the latter half of
Thursday night as a cold front and upper trough approach. Moisture
flux ahead of the front isn`t too strong, with PW values peaking
around one inch so rainfall prospects appear pretty minimal. Drying
comes fast early Friday with deep moisture well offshore by 18Z. Not
much CAA behind this system so the weekend looks dry and
seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Overcast cirrus clouds will finally be shunted offshore by
incoming upper trough around 06-09Z tonight, but soundings
showing some lingering mid level clouds around 15k ft and may
become broken briefly at times through today before clearing
tonight. Winds will remain calm/light out of the N-NW through
this morning, with 5 to 10 kt NE winds developing after
sunrise. Winds should drop off inland to calm by this evening
but may hold up just a bit out of the NE, but less than 5 kt
for the most part, at coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely through Thursday. By late
Thursday into Friday, a frontal system finally brings some
rain, which brings the first threat of sub-VFR. VFR returns late
Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Surface high pressure to the west will keep winds
out of the north-northeast through Monday evening. Brief uptick in
winds speeds, to 15-20 kts, late tonight through midday Monday as a
low pressure system passes well to the south. Seas 1-2 ft this
evening build to 2-3 ft for daytime Monday, with 4 footers in outer
coastal waters, from building ENE wind wave and arrival of a SE
swell in the afternoon.

Monday night through Friday... High pressure noses in from the north
early in the period keeping winds pretty light. There will still be
some easterly swell however keeping seas elevated above what the
wind-wave height would be. Wind speeds bottom out Tuesday night into
Wednesday and the swell energy eases. Thursday brings veering winds
as the ridge axis lifts out and a cold front approaches from the
west. The prefrontal southwesterly flow regime should push seas to
advisory levels Thursday night into Friday. Another veer will
accompany FROPA on Friday  knocking the 6 ft waves outside of the
forecast zones for a lowering of the headline.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.