Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 191744
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
144 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear skies in the days ahead with a gradual warming
trend through mid-week. Early morning temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday as Canadian high pressure slowly
modifies over the area. A cold front from the north and low
pressure offshore will bring rain chances Wednesday night into
next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surf: Have lowered the rip current risk at Horry county
beaches, from Myrtle Beach south, to low risk with the morning
SRF update. Moderate risk of rip currents remains at Pender, New
Hanover, and Georgetown county beaches, with a strong longshore
current this morning weakening as the day goes on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pleasant today with much cooler and drier weather moving into
the region. Daytime highs only in the mid 80s under clear
skies. These below-normal temperatures will be without the
oppressive humidity that we are so accustom to. NE winds around
10 mph during the day will weaken tomorrow evening and set the
stage for ideal radiational cooling overnight. Overnight lows
into Monday morning are likely to be in the upper 50s across
much of the area with the only 60 degree readings to be found
along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After a cool start early on Monday when min-T approaches record
lows inland, temperatures will warm 30 degrees F or more, closer
to normal values for the season Monday afternoon, 86-91 warmest
well inland. Short-wave energy aloft to bring high and a few
mid level clouds from the north overnight Monday night, which
should hold min-T values in mid 60s early Tuesday.

LBT record low 6/20 - 55 in 1965, current forecast 57
FLO record low 6/20 - 58 in 1965, current forecast 58

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High and mid clouds likely Tuesday due to convective debris
north of region spurred by short-wave dropping across mid-atlc
over amplified upper ridge. The ridge appears strong locally
and mid levels dry Tuesday so no POP values of mention then.
Due to upper ridge infringement, max-T to climb well into 90s
inland Tuesday, peaking Wednesday or Thursday with a potential
for heat advisories then, but marginal at present in part due to
clouds expected with front Wednesday night onward.

GFS/ECMWF currently diverge with handling of offshore stacked
low pressure late week, European closer in vicinity to sustain
rain chances into the weekend, while GFS keeps feature farther
away. A blend still yields a chance of a showers or TSTM late
week into Saturday. Late week temperatures near to a little
above climatology but this subject to adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Few high clouds throughout the TAF period from the
northwest, with scattered mid clouds around 100 kft Monday.
Weakening north winds through this evening will go calm tonight.
Light northwest winds develop tomorrow, with a pinned sea breeze
potentially impacting MYR and CRE in the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight

Current winds between 15-20 knots will continue to weaken
throughout the day with gusts and seas diminishing after sunrise
and even moreso into the afternoon. Winds and seas improve
overnight as high pressure settles into the area.

Monday through Thursday

Improving trends begin period, as NE waves gradually dampen in
height, wave periods around 8 seconds Monday and settling to 2
ft. Light winds as high pressure migrates in vicinity early next
week so quite favorable marine conditions on tap. No TSTMs on
0-20nm waters through at least Tuesday. A front dropping from
North late Wednesday may bring marine showers and TSTMs. Low
pressure off shore may approach coast late week which could
sustain unsettled conditions beyond this period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MJC/21


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