706
FXUS62 KILM 211324
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
924 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.UPDATE...
12 UTC Morning sounding and 18 UTC BURF sounding showing
precipitable waters of 2.1" to 2.3", ML CAPEs around 2500, and
freezing level and wet bulb zero are at 16000` and 15000`
respectively. The only synoptic lift is a weak short wave in the
flow. Only slight variations seen in the sounding parameters
over the past several days. No changes planned in the current
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front remain north of the area today and tonight as weak
upper level energy approaches from the SW. This will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy
rain is possible but the storms should move quickly enough to
preclude widespread flooding concerns. Highs today should reach
the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A tropical air mass will maintain rain chances on Monday.
Subtle shortwaves streaming northeastward will focus the
majority of shower activity inland along the Piedmont trough.
Some isolated showers are likely to develop along the sea breeze
as well. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight
lows in the low and mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues this week despite a ridge creeping
into eastern portions of the area. Deep moisture will maintain
shower chances inland with daily initiation along the Piedmont
trough. Focus of showers appears to remain inland, but hard to
say at this point given the lack of organized lift. Generally,
expect a chance of showers and storms along the coast with
better chances of afternoon storms inland. Temperatures each day
in the lower 90s and lows in the low and mid 70s.

Ridge weakens late next week and shower chances may see a slight
increase as a surface trough approaches the region. While the
forecast does reflect this slight increase, its hard to say
showers will be more than scattered as this feature appears weak
in latest model guidance. Temperatures slightly cooler behind
the exiting ridge and approaching trough, upper 80s expected
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the valid taf period with a
couple caveats. Low clouds could affect terminals, particularly
inland, for a couple hours early in the taf period this morning.
This afternoon and evening, convection could bring restrictions to
terminals at times after about 19Z.

Extended Outlook... Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW
winds of 15 KT or less with seas of 2 to 3 FT today and 3 to 4
FT tonight.

Monday through Thursday Night... Bermuda high brings
consistency southerly flow during the afternoon between 15-20
knots. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely each night during
the diurnal maximum. Coverage will decrease during the middle
of next week as a mid level ridge over the western Atlantic
builds westward. SE swell remains 2-3 feet at around 9 seconds
through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...31
MARINE...21/31