Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 041657
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1157 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and warm weather is expected today. A dry cold front will
bring cooler air Friday into the weekend, while low pressure
passes south of the area, bringing some clouds on Saturday. Dry
weather will continue through much of next week with a spring-
like warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low that brought 1-2 inches of rain across portions of coastal
South Carolina yesterday is now well offshore. Dry northwest winds
are expected today under clear skies. Even with 850 mb temps only in
the +3 to +5C range, strong March sunshine should push highs into
the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Multi-model blends were
used for temps today except along the beaches where I manually
adjusted temps up given the offshore wind that will negate any
marine influence. With dewpoints sliding through the 30s, minimum
relative humidity could fall below 25 percent this afternoon,
particularly well inland.

Temps will drop quickly after sunset as winds diminish. A dry cold
front pushed southward by high pressure building across the Great
Lakes should arrive around midnight, stirring the boundary layer up
as cold advection begins. Tonight`s lows should generally reach the
upper 30s. The zero C line at 850 mb will sink into northeastern
South Carolina by Friday afternoon as high temperatures struggle
through the 50s with plenty of sunshine. The GFS appears to be a
warm outlier for Friday`s temps, so my forecast is mainly a
NAM/ECMWF blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cutoff low opens up and phases with deep mid to upper trough
over the eastern CONUS Fri night into Sat before finally
shifting off the coast into early next week. The associated weak
sfc low will track across the Florida Peninsula over the
weekend, remaining well south of the area, but expect to see
clouds reaching as far north as SC with pcp remaining farther
south. Sounding data shows moisture through the column reaching
down from the upper levels to near 10k ft with dry low levels
remaining in place. Therefore expect mid to high clouds
streaming across the area, mainly over SC, through Sat, with
latest model runs keeping pcp remaining well south. By Sat
night, high pressure will build down from the Upper Great Lakes
with a cool and dry weather continuing. Temps will remain below
normal having trouble making it to 60 most places on Sat and
temps near or just below freezing Fri night and Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mid to upper trough down the east coast on Sun will move
offshore with ridge of high pressure building in through next
week. Height rises and developing return flow will help warm
things up into mid week. Other than a few clouds at times,
expect a dry and warm week ahead with temps warming above normal
starting Tues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and relatively light offshore winds
continue this afternoon. A dry cold front drops down from the
north this evening, with light winds turning northerly behind
it for overnight into tomorrow. Expected to be too dry and
windy for any visibility concerns this period.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Low pressure to the south may bring
ceilings on Saturday, but right now it appears these clouds will
be in VFR range with little or no restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Low pressure moving farther off the Southeast
coast today should provide light offshore winds and seas
dominated by a moderate southeasterly backswell. Low pressure
across the Canadian Maritime provinces and new high pressure
advancing across the Great Lakes will work together to push a
dry cold front across the Carolinas tonight. This boundary
should arrive in our area around midnight, accompanied by a
shift from west to north winds increasing to 15-20 knots. No
Small Craft Advisory is planned at this time. Conditions should
improve Friday afternoon as the high continues to build in from
the northwest.

Friday night through Monday...Benign marine conditions can be
expected through the weekend and into next week. Light northerly
flow may get disrupted a bit into Sat as low pressure moves by
to the south, but overall, very light northerly flow will
continue into early next week as high pressure migrates across
the Carolinas finally moving offshore on Mon with winds coming
around to the south but remaining light Mon night into mid week.
This will keep seas less than 2 ft most of the weekend and the
week ahead with only a slight bump up Sat aftn as low moves by
to the south.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/RGZ



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