Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 200451
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1251 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear skies in the days ahead with a gradual warming
trend through mid-week. Early morning temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday as Canadian high pressure slowly
modifies over the area. A cold front from the north and low
pressure offshore will bring rain chances Wednesday night into
next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

KLTX vad wind profile trends confirm abating NE wind gradient
in lowest several thousand feet of the troposphere, aiding a
good night for radiational cooling. Thin cirrus streaming south
may offset ideal long-wave heat escape, but not by very much. As
such we are on pace for min-T near record low levels inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With continued CAA in northerly flow aloft and calm winds overnight
as low level ridge builds from the northwest, temps tonight will be
well below normal in the mid 50s. Trended towards cooler guidance,
such as GFS MOS, based on recent performance and set up for a nice
cooldown. A few June 20th minT records may be threatened, mainly at
Florence where the current record is 58 set in 1965. With low level
ridge moving overhead Monday, and weak northwest flow with a pinned
sea breeze, high temps will increase to near 90 degrees. Scattered
mid and high clouds will stream from the northwest around upper
level ridge to the west, but will still have plenty of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warming trend will take place into midweek as high amplitude
ridge over the central CONUS responsible for advecting cool and
dry Canadian air southward flattens out and spreads eastward.
850 temps will rise a good 8 degrees as mid level heights rise.
Perturbations riding down around the ridge in the northerly flow
will produce some convection well north and although we are not
expecting any pcp Mon through Wed, debris clouds spilling over
the ridge in northerly flow down into our area may filter out
the sun at times, especially on Tues. By late Tues into Wed, the
eastward push of the ridge should keep any convective debris
clouds eastward, but models do hint at clouds and possibly a
stray shwr reaching into Pender county late Tues. For now will
keep any pops north and east of the area until after this
period. The last cooler night will be Mon night and then we head
back toward normal for Tues and Tues night. Warmest weather will
come into midweek with temps back in the 90s and head indices
reaching near or over 100 in places.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models seem to be coming into better agreement with mid to late
week evolution of front and low offshore. Ridge in the mid to
upper levels becomes elongated west to east across the deep
south extending eastward into the Carolinas while deep trough
off of the New England coast seems to weaken and lift north. By
Wed night into Thurs a cold front will drop southeastward
toward the Carolinas. Looks like enough shortwave energy in the
midlevels and front itself will provide enough lift for
increased chc of convection Thurs. Low pressure develops along
lingering front offshore but should remain well offshore with
mainly low end chc of pcp, at least initially. Another front and
this low may increase pcp chances toward the end of next week.
Hot and more humid weather will continue through much of the
late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Thin cirrus this TAF cycle. Abating and veering wind
profile from NE to SE by end of period, overall light wind as
pressure field becomes flatter with Canadian high pressure in
vicinity. Dry atmosphere to prevent vsby restrictions.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday: Northerly winds will continue to weaken through
this evening, with seas lowering in turn with diminishing NE
wind wave. As surface high builds from the northwest tonight and
moves overhead tomorrow, winds less than 10 kts overnight with
varied directions becoming south-southwesterly by tomorrow
afternoon. 2-3 ft seas around midnight lower to 1-2 ft by
tomorrow morning, primarily from a 9s E swell.

Monday night through Friday:
Sfc high pressure nearly overhead late Mon before it shifts
offshore with a weak pressure pattern overall producing lighter
and more variable winds. Land and sea breeze should drive the
winds with a greater onshore flow near shore in the aftn to
early eve and offshore overnight. By late Wed into Thurs should
see an increase in southerly return flow as Piedmont trough
becomes more pronounces and cold front begins to drop down from
the northwest. Front should reach the waters late Thurs into Fri
with increased chc of shwrs/tstms. Low pressure may develop
along the front in the offshore waters with variable winds late
in the period. Seas will be less than 3 ft through early Wed
with an increase up to 3 to 5 ft in southerly push Wed night
through early Fri. A minimal longer period E-SE swell will mix
in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


UPDATE...Colby
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...8
MARINE...RGZ/VAO


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