Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 181901
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather into the first half of
the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late in
the weekend and into early next week as low pressure lifts
northeast from the Gulf coast. A cold front will bring additional
unsettled weather midweek, followed by high pressure Thursday. A
weak trough may move onshore by the end of the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overall the forecast remains mostly dry certainly tonight and
most if not all of the day Saturday. A shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest and link up with Potential Tropical
Cyclone 3 through the period. Still glaring differences with
regards to the GFS and ECMWF versions but most of these occur
past early morning Sunday. Will continue to advertise isolated
to lower pops mid to afternoon Saturday perhaps sparked by the
Piedmont Trough and moisture advection off of the Atlantic more
for the overnight hours Saturday and along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GFS and ECMWF diverge with the evolution of the Gulf low as it lifts
northeast across the SE CONUS Sunday and over the Carolinas Monday.
It`s a given that moisture will be on the increase through the
period, with PWAT surging to 2-2.25". The ECMWF maintains stronger
mid-level support, and a stronger surface circulation, leading to a
more organized precipitation event late Sunday into Monday across
the area. The GFS opens the system up and quickly dissipates it,
leaving plenty of moisture, but would result in showers and
thunderstorms being less numerous (more scattered) and more
diurnally-driven Sunday and Monday. Believe the best option at this
point is to stay close to the current forecast, ramping up PoPs to
50-70% by late Sunday into Monday, then drying out Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level shortwave will pivot across the Appalachians on
Tuesday and push a cold front into the CWA Tuesday evening. With
plenty of lingering moisture, expect decent coverage of showers
and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front on Tuesday.
Models suggest the front will slow as it approaches the coast
Tuesday night, then push offshore Wednesday as another shortwave
swings overhead. PoPs will trend down behind the front
Wednesday, although uncertainty remains in how quickly to bring
them down. Potentially the driest window in the period may be
late Wednesday into early Friday, although will need to maintain
at least a small PoP over the eastern CWA during this time.
Will increase PoPs Friday to 20-30% as coastal trough may
migrate onshore.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR and dry through the 18Z TAF period. Winds are becoming more
southerly around 10kts at the coastal terminals as the seabreeze
traverses inland. By this evening, winds continue to veer to the
southwest, decreasing to 5-10kts. Modest cloud cover takes shape by
Saturday morning, and winds increase slightly back to 10kts towards
the end of the TAF cycle.

Extended Outlook...VFR dominates through Saturday due to dry
high pressure. Convection to return Sunday with periodic
MVFR/IFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Saturday night: Weak wind fields over the region will sharpen up
in the next twelve hours or so as the inland trough will strengthen
and make a run to the coast. Winds will increase from the current
single digits to a range of 10-15 knots by Saturday morning. Strong
low level jetting further increases winds to 15-20 knots into
Saturday evening but confidence erodes as the differences in the
handling of Potential Cyclone 3 begin to be seen moreso after the
validity of this period of the forecast, Sunday morning. For now
will hold steady with winds dropping off a bit after their peak.
Significant seas will slowly build from the current 1-2 feet to 3-4
by the end of the period.

Sunday through Wednesday: South to southwest flow expected
Sunday/Monday between offshore high pressure and remnants of
Gulf low pressure. Differences in model solutions lend to lower
confidence in wind speeds Sunday and Monday. A blend of the GFS
and stronger ECMWF yields 15 kts early Sunday increasing to 20
kts sustained from the SSW later Sunday into Monday. If the
ECMWF ends up verifying, we could see 25-30 kts late
Sunday/early Monday. SW flow will continue Tuesday, diminishing
somewhat as gradient weakens. Model consensus brings a cold
front off the coast Wednesday morning, and winds behind the
front will veer to the NE by Wednesday afternoon, though a
modest gradient should keep them below 15 kts. Seas should build
to 6 ft Sunday night and continue through Monday, which would
necessitate a Small Craft Advisory. Seas will subside late
Monday through Wednesday, though may hold near 5-6 ft in the
outer waters through Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/CRM


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