Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 152023
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above
normal temperatures through Friday night. A mainly dry cold
front will move through Saturday and Saturday night bringing
a brief bout of colder weather for the west of the weekend.
Building high pressure will lead to continued warming through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall conditions will continue to be quiet across the
area through Friday although with a couple of moving parts. The
first is a weak boundary settling across the area tonight which will
bring a subtle wind shift and a slightly cooler airmass although
with recent guidance a bit lagging confidence is a bit muted. Lows
tonight will be in the boundary layer mixed middle 40s. Highs Friday
in the middle to upper 60s as some mid to high level moisture moves
across with the system well to the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will remain in place through Fri night with
increasing SWly flow and cloudy skies leading to lows in the mid-
upper 40s for SE NC and near 50 for NE SC. Low pressure inland to
our west will continue northeast overnight, moving offshore from VA
by Sat morning. A small increase in moisture ahead of the system`s
cold front will lead to a line of light showers moving through the
area from NW to SE through Sat. Little accumulation is expected with
this system and the front should be offshore by Sat night. Highs Sat
will be highest along the coast in the low to possibly mid 60s while
inland could fall into the upper 50s due to the colder air behind
the front. Clouds and a breeze should linger through Sat night
reducing radiational cooling but lows could still fall near freezing
far inland, a majority of the area seeing low-mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sun still looks to be the coldest day in the period due to continued
cold air advection highs near 50 and lows near freezing. Ridging
then looks to build in from the south with high pressure moving in
from the west as warm air advection moderates temperatures. The high
should be overhead by Tue with another system approaching towards
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period with little to
no chance for any restrictions. A weak boundary will move across
with winds acquiring a northerly component although any push or
surge is somewhat weak.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through Fri night with a low
threat for flight restrictions Sat aftn/night, possibly into
early Sun near the coast, as a cold front passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Southwest winds will increase across the
waters tonight into a range of 10-15 knots ahead of an
approaching cold front. Not much if any of a surge in the wake
of this boundary with a brief offshore flow transitioning to
what could be argued a sea breeze influenced weak onshore flow
by later Friday. Significant seas...currently around 2-3 feet
may increase briefly to the higher end of a 2-4 foot range with
the increase in winds then trend back down Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Winds will veer from the SE to the SW
overnight into Sat morning as low pressure passes to our north,
becoming NWly by the afternoon as the system`s cold front pushes
offshore. Gusts could near ~25 kts but conditions should remain
below advisory criteria. Lighter Nly winds should prevail Sun
through the end of the period. Seas 2-4 ft over the weekend will
diminish to largely 2 ft through the rest of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW


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