Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
959 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018


Today-Tonight...Stubborn mid/upper level trough over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico combined with rather strong Atlantic high pressure
ridge is continuing to generate a deep layer of southerly winds.
Water vapor imagery clearly shows a moisture plume from the
Caribbean into Florida.  We started out with widespread showers
across the area early this morning, but the models shift the heavier
rain west of the area this afternoon.  Extensive cloud cover will
inhibit surface heating, but some regeneration of convection is
likely this afternoon due to the very moist air mass in place.  The
HRRR shows this activity mainly affecting the interior.  The clouds
and showers will limit high temperatures today to the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.  Haven`t made much change to the previous
forecast for today.  Won`t change tonight`s forecast yet, but high
moisture, breezy onshore flow and still favorable conditions aloft
should allow for regeneration of showers along the Treasure/Space
Coast with PoPs in the likely range.


.AVIATION...Widespread light-moderate rain with MVFR ceilings will
only slowly shift inland through this afternoon, but overcast skies
will persist across the entire area with local MVFR occurring.  The
chance for downpours with IFR will mainly be at the interior
terminals this afternoon.  There is a chance for downpours tonight
again along the coast, especially KMLB-KSUA.


Today/Tonight...Even though the bulk of showers was occurring over
the mainland, conditions for small craft operation are poor due to
breezy southeast winds on the east side of an inverted trough that
was shifting slowly inland.  Marine observations and surface
analysis show about 15 knot winds nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore
with seas up to 6 feet.  Will continue with exercise caution
statements offshore, and add the southern nearshore zone.





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