


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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394 FXUS62 KMLB 071801 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 201 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - An active weather pattern persists across east central Florida today, with storm threats including lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through the work week as a result of a persistent moist airmass across the peninsula. - As temperatures warm back to the lower 90s, tropical humidity will make for oppressive peak heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees most afternoons. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Today-Tonight...The Atlantic high is forecast to slowly build across the area, with the ridge axis drifting north across the Florida Keys and south Florida. In addition, a mid-level ridge returns to the area, helping to reduce rain and storm chances across much of the area today. Prevailing southwesterly flow is anticipated across the forecast area, with the development of the east coast sea breeze focused primarily from the Cape southward where the flow is a bit lighter. The sea breeze will move inland through the afternoon, with shower and storm activity forecast to develop. There is lower confidence in development farther north, leading to a roughly 30 to 40 percent chance of rain and storms across the greater Orlando area and up to a 60 percent chance of rain and storms near the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. The environment looks similar to yesterday, with modest MUCAPE values and low-level lapse rates, DCAPE values of 800 to 900 J/kg, and PWATs near 2 inches. This means that frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally heavy downpours will be the primary concerns associated with any storms that develop. Activity will be pushed offshore through the late evening hours due to the prevailing southwesterly flow, with continued development across the local waters possible into the overnight hours. Temperatures across east central Florida continue to remain near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the lingering moist airmass will create humid and muggy conditions. Peak heat indices once again may be capable of reaching 100 to 105 in spots, and a Moderate HeatRisk remains in place across much of the area. This means that residents and visitors should ensure they are taking preventative actions to avoid heat stress. This includes remaining adequately hydrated and taking frequent breaks in either the shade or an air conditioned building if outside for extended periods of time. Heading into the overnight hours, conditions are forecast to remain muggy, though lows remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday-Sunday...The ridge axis is forecast to continue drifting northward through Tuesday, settling across central Florida by mid- week and remaining generally in place through the weekend. The exact placement of the axis will determine surface flow, just how far inland the sea breeze is able to move, and where the sea breeze collision may occur. On Tuesday, lighter surface flow will allow for a farther push inland of the sea breeze, with a collision likely focused across the central peninsula. Have maintained a 40 to 50 percent PoP across east central Florida to reflect this. Wednesday and beyond, there remains a greater amount of uncertainty in the placement of the axis. However, there does appear to be some model agreement in a wave of moisture approaching the peninsula by Thursday from the east, further supported by a mid-level low over the peninsula. This will likely allow for greater coverage of showers and storms through the end of the week and into the weekend, so as a result, kept PoPs between 60 to 70 percent through the extended forecast period. Both high and low temperatures are forecast to remain near their climatological normals through this week and into the weekend, though the moisture present will continue to lead to muggy and humid conditions. Peak heat indices will continue to near 100 across much of east central Florida, with some spots nearing 105 at times. Relief from the heat will come each afternoon thanks to the diurnal showers and storms, but residents and visitors to the area should continue to monitor the forecast and plan accordingly to prevent heat-related illnesses. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The Atlantic high is forecast to slowly move northward through Tuesday, settling across the local Atlantic waters mid and late week. This will result in generally favorable boating conditions, with winds remaining around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet present across the local waters. South to southwest winds persist, becoming more southeasterly near the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops each afternoon. The primary hazard for mariners over the next several days will come from convective development, with scattered showers and storms possible over the next several days. Ongoing development into the overnight hours will also be possible, especially as activity moves offshore from the Florida peninsula. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing frequent cloud- to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Locally higher and rougher seas also cannot be ruled out in the immediate vicinity of storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms approaching interior terminals as of 18Z. MVFR/IFR reductions thru 20-21Z as convection pushes eastward. Outflow will reach KDAB/KTIX, with lower confidence in impacts. Additional development likely south of KMCO later this afternoon with impacts to Treasure Coast terminals. East coast sea breeze pushing inland very slowly which will be the target for convection thru early evening. Variable winds overnight becoming southwest at daybreak before the sea breeze development again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 90 75 90 / 10 40 30 60 MCO 76 93 75 92 / 20 50 30 60 MLB 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 30 50 VRB 71 91 72 90 / 20 40 30 50 LEE 76 91 76 91 / 10 50 30 60 SFB 76 93 76 93 / 20 50 30 60 ORL 77 92 77 92 / 20 50 30 60 FPR 72 90 72 89 / 20 40 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Schaper