Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220843
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
443 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...The Atlantic surface ridge axis just north of Florida will
maintain a moist, southeast flow in the low levels. Forecast model
soundings show a little bit of dry air advecting in at mid levels
across the north half of the forecast area this aftn. Still expect
considerable cloud cover today but a tad more sunshine over the
interior could produce max temps in the mid 80s, esp Lake county;
lower 80s elsewhere. Numerous showers and isolated storms again
along the Treasure coast to start the day will lift north and
northwest along the coast this morning, then focus on the interior
this afternoon. Gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph possible this morning
near the coast with the showers. The presence of that slightly
direr air aloft and prospect for a little more heating over the
interior may produce a better chance for gusty winds up to 45 mph
over the interior this afternoon.

Tonight...Focus for showers and isolated storms will shift back to
the coast and adjacent Atlc waters. Have drawn scattered PoPs
along the coast (brevard southward) with isolated rain chances
elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...The Atlantic surface ridge axis is forecast to slide
slowly southward closer toward the local area. The low-level flow
looks to be S/SE and rather weak as the pressure gradient weakens
in relation to the ridge position nearby. By Thu, medium range
models show a weak low pressure developing over the southern Gulf
and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

Coastal convergence across ECFL likely weaker as a result with
potential for lower precip coverage than realized the past few
mornings. However, fairly deep moisture remains over the area with
PWAT values hovering between 1.75-2.00 inches. Deepest convection
likely over the interior in the afternoon on Wed with daytime
heating and highest chances (50pct) likely across Osceola and
Okeechobee counties. PoPs 30-40pct elsewhere on this day. Will bump
PoPs up just a little bit higher on Thu areawide from Wed`s
forecast. Highs each day in the L-M80s near the coast and M-U80s
interior. Lows mild and in the U60s to L70s.

Fri-Mon...Memorial Holiday Weekend...Aloft, an unsettled pattern
develops with troughing over the GOMEX and Deep South. This will
send occasional vorticity impulses over the forecast area thru this
time. Deeper moisture with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches
forecast during this period. Surface high pressure becomes
reinforced initially northward over the southeast U.S. and mid Atlc
states. Much uncertainty exists between medium range models in
placement/track/strength of aforementioned weak surface low over the
Gulf. This will all play a role in precipitation chances over the
period. For now it appears the weak low will track northward toward
the Louisiana coast into Sat and eventually onto the southern coast
of Louisiana and further north/inland into early next week. This
will all provide for a potentially very wet Holiday Weekend. As
such, and given recent rainfall amounts piling up across ECFL, a
Flood Watch may become necessary during this period for much if not
all of the coverage warning area. Further model consistency and
forecaster confidence will be key in determining this. At the very
least, heavy rainfall and localized flooding seem probable across
already saturated ground. It will remain humid with max temps in the
L-M80s with min temps continuing in the U60s to L70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous SHRA and isold TSRA will lift N/NW along the
coast this morning and affect coastal terminals with TEMPO
IFR/MVFR conds and gusty winds up to 30 knots. The focus for
convection and TEMPO IFR/MVFR conds will shift to the interior
terminals this afternoon where gusty winds near 35 knots will be
possible. Will keep conditions VFR outside of convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Boating conditions will remain unfavorable due to
winds/seas as well as weather. The pressure gradient will support
southeast winds around 15 knots with choppy seas of 5 feet
offshore, 3 to 4 feet nearshore. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated storms will lift north along the coast this morning
with wind gusts near 30 knots. Shower/storm coverage should
decrease this afternoon over the waters and coast.

Wed-Thu...The Atlantic ridge remains forecast to sink southward
towards the northern local waters while weakening. Winds appear to
vary between the S and SE with a slight gradual decrease in speeds
as a weaker pgrad will be in place. Expect speeds mainly AOB 15 kts
areawide. Seas mainly 2-3 ft very near shore and offshore south of
Ft. Pierce and generally 3-4 ft elsewhere. Moisture will remain high
enough for at least scattered showers and isolated storms.

Fri-Sun...The Atlantic ridge appears to become re-established but to
the north of the area. A very unsettled pattern develops in the Gulf
for the Holiday Weekend. Low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula or
southern Gulf will move northward toward the Louisiana coast into
the weekend and gradually points further inland across the Deep
South. Exact track, position, and strength on this feature will play
a role in both wind speed/direction. At present directional
component appears SE to S with some occasional wavering toward the
SSW. Wind speeds could approach 15-20 kts at times (potentially
stronger) over the open Atlc. Building seas will also result with
poor to hazardous small craft boating conditions. Potentially high
rainfall probabilities across the local waters with isolated
lightning storms and gusty winds from heavier showers/storms can be
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  69  84  71 /  60  20  30  20
MCO  84  70  87  72 /  60  20  40  20
MLB  81  72  84  72 /  70  30  30  20
VRB  81  71  85  71 /  70  30  40  20
LEE  85  71  87  72 /  60  30  40  20
SFB  83  69  87  72 /  60  20  30  20
ORL  83  70  87  72 /  60  20  40  20
FPR  81  71  85  71 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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