Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 161930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018


...Warming Trend this Weekend into Early Next Week...

This afternoon-Sat...A surface high pressure ridge with an axis
across central/south Florida will hold its position while weakening
slightly.  An inland moving sea breeze and developing weak southerly
gradient wind this afternoon/evening will gradually modify the dry
air mass. This will raise surface dew points and hence low temps
will not be nearly as cold as this morning; mainly lower-mid 50s
except for some upper 40s in normal colder spots.

On Sat, a south/southwest wind flow will boost high temps into
the lower-mid 80s, except for readings around 80 along the coast.
Forecast soundings show some mid-high level cloudiness but daytime
heating cumulus look sparse and probably only over the east side
of the peninsula where east/west boundary collision occurs late.
Will still call for mostly sunny skies.

Sun...Surface high pressure becomes elongated as it sags south over
the Florida Straits and the Bahamas. Offshore flow ahead of a
weakening front over the southeast will draw additional moisture
across the area, but not enough to provide appreciable rain chances.
The GFS, and to some extent the ECMWF, continues to show some low
QPF amounts north of Orlando and Cape Canaveral as a weak short wave
passes overhead. Regardless, PoPs in these areas remain at or below
20% and confined to the mid and late afternoon hours. Afternoon
temps climb to about 5 degrees above climatology, around 80 along
the coast to 82-84 across the interior.

...Modified previous discussion...
Mon-Thu...The front remains stalled just north of Florida early next
week as low pressure transitions eastward from OK/KS region early
Monday toward Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday. Both the GFS and
ECMWF remain consistent with a more amplified trough shifting the
cold front through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
next best chance for rainfall will occur ahead of this boundary
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with PoPs ranging from 30-50 percent
over much of the area. Confidence is increasing that the front will
make a clean passage Tuesday night with much cooler and drier
weather from Wednesday onward.

Highs remain above normal through Mon-Tue, with values in the low to
mid 80s and then falling below seasonable levels behind the cold
front from mid to late week.


.AVIATION...VFR. Local MVFR with light fog towards sunrise.


.MARINE...Tonight-Sat...Good boating conditions. Axis of high
pressure ridge over or just south of the waters will provide a
south to southwest wind flow about 10 knots or less, except 10-15
knots late Sat offshore. Seas will be 2 feet or less, except up to
3 feet offshore late Sat.

Sun-Mon...High pressure sags to the south of the area early next
week as a stalled surface front remains to our north. Favorable
boating conditions will continue with generally offshore flow at or
below 10 knots and seas 1-3 feet.

Tue...A resurgence of breezy south to southwest winds approaching 20
knots is expected as a cold front moves closer to the area. Winds
veer to the northwest behind the front Tuesday night. Deteriorating
seas are expected, especially offshore.


Sat...A southerly wind flow will gradually modify the dry air mass.
Min RH values 30-35 percent are forecast near and west of I-4.
Durations of 4-5 hours may necessitate a Red Flag there.

Sun...As flow becomes more westerly and moisture increases ahead of
a front nearing north FL, min RH values are expected to remain above
critical levels Sunday.


DAB  50  80  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  53  84  59  83 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  51  81  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  52  81  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  53  82  60  82 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  52  84  59  82 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  56  83  60  82 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  51  81  57  81 /   0   0   0  10


FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Northern
     Brevard County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard



SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Ulrich
AVIATION...Rodriguez is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.