829
FXUS62 KMLB 291037
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
637 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- High coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms each
  day this week. Slow moving storms will be capable of wind gusts
  to around 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and
  locally heavy rainfall, leading to minor flooding.

- Humid conditions will continue to lead to apparent temperatures
  in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least mid week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Today-Tonight...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped across
central Florida today, as an upper level low moves northwestward
across the Bahamas. Ample moisture remains locked in over the
forecast area today, with PWATs 1.8-2.1" supporting widespread
coverage of showers and storms once again this afternoon into this
evening. PoPs generally 60-80% across the area today. CAMs suggest
the high coverage along and north of the I-4 corridor from early to
mid-afternoon. Then, increasing coverage south and eastward into the
evening, as outflow boundaries and the sea breezes collide. It`s
possible that portions of the southern Treasure Coast may not see
convection until the evening hours, should they avoid and showers
and storms developing along the sea breeze early in the afternoon.
While deep moisture through the column will limit the amount of
DCAPE, a few stronger wind gusts to around 50 mph in precip loaded
storms, especially along any boundary collisions, cannot be ruled
out. 500 mb temperatures -9 to -8C and storm motions 15 mph or less
(slowest across southern portions of the forecast area) will also
support the threat for small hail and slow moving storms leading to
locally heavy rainfall. Quick accumulations of 1-3" will be possible
and could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas. There is a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall north
and west of a line from Lake Okeechobee to Melbourne today.

Slow storm motions will allow outflow boundary collisions to keep
convection ongoing into the evening hours. CAMs support debris
showers (with occasional embedded lightning strikes) persisting into
the late evening (10 PM - midnight). Then, drier conditions are
forecast to prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours.
Light south to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along
the coast at around 10-15 mph this afternoon, as the sea breeze
develops. Seasonable temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
are forecast this afternoon. Although, humid conditions will make
temperatures feel closer to the upper 90s and near 100. Overnight
lows are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday-Wednesday...The upper level low drifts northward through
early this week, remaining just offshore from the eastern Florida
peninsula. Meanwhile, the ridge axis persists, before weakening
into mid-week, as a trough drops into the Southeast US. Thus,
little change to the overall sensible pattern, with deep moisture
and PWATs 1.7-2+" lingering over the local area. High coverage of
afternoon showers and storms (PoPs 50-70%) will linger into the
evening hours, as prevailing south to southwesterly flow leads to
a collision favoring the eastern side of the peninsula, though
steering flow will remain generally light (around 15 mph or less).
A few strong storms will remain possible, with modest upper level
support and 500 mb temperatures -8 to -9C. However, locally heavy
rainfall will become an increasing concern, with daily rounds of
heavy downpours. Quick accumulations of 1-3" will remain possible.
Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are
forecast to continue. However, apparent temperatures are expected
to increase slightly each day, returning to the lower 100s by
Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday...Some uncertainty continues in the long term for
the holiday weekend, as the weak surface front drifts into the
Southeast and stalls into late week, ushering the Atlantic ridge
axis farther out to sea. The evolution of this stalled boundary
and any features that it may help produce remains very low
confidence and bears watching. However, the overall forecast
thinking remains the same, regardless: high coverage of showers
and storms looks to continue each afternoon and evening into next
weekend, as deep moisture lingers. For now, have capped PoPs at
60-70% each day due to the time frame and uncertainty. With
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible each day, minor
flooding concerns could increase in some spots. High cloud
coverage would help to keep temperatures seasonable, though humid
conditions will continue to support heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions will persist through this
week; however, high coverage of afternoon showers and storms will
continue, some of which may drift offshore during the late
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong,
capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail,
and heavy downpours. Prevailing south to southwest winds
will remain less than 15 kts. However, will see winds become
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon, as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 602 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Rinse and repeat TAFs. Quiet VFR through morning, then SCT-NUM
TSRA/SHRA in the afternoon and evening again. Light SW-S winds VRB
at times early this morning pick up to 5-10 kts ahead of the ECSB,
which develops 16Z-18Z and shifts winds SSE-SE. Low confidence in
convective evolution, but generally expect development to start
around 19Z pretty much anywhere, and quickly increasing in
coverage through the afternoon while gradually pushing towards
the east coast. Gradual decrease in coverage after 22Z, with quiet
VFR conditions expected by 02Z or so. Overnight winds light SSW-
SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  70  30
MCO  89  73  89  74 /  80  50  70  30
MLB  88  74  89  75 /  70  50  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  72 /  60  40  50  30
LEE  88  74  86  73 /  80  50  70  30
SFB  91  73  89  73 /  70  50  70  30
ORL  90  74  89  74 /  80  50  70  30
FPR  88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley