703
FXUS62 KMLB 301729
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- High coverage of afternoon and evening showers and lightning
  storms each day, especially Wednesday onward. Slow-moving storms
  will be capable of wind gusts to around 50 mph, frequent
  lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall, leading to minor
  flooding.

- Humid conditions will continue to lead to apparent temperatures
  in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least mid week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today-Tonight...An upper-level low over the nearby Atlantic
waters will continue to lift north, while at the surface the ridge
axis of the sub-tropical high weakly extends towards Central
Florida. Light southerly flow veers from from southeasterly to
the south and southwesterly to the north of the ridge axis, making
for a complicated evolution of the sea breezes today. On our
coast, expect the sea breeze south of Melbourne to get scooted
along, while to the north getting slowed and gradually pinned. In
addition, the sea breezes will be on the weaker side as high
coverage of clouds limits heating. PWATs range from around 1.7"
(near normal) in Martin County to 2.0" (near 90th percentile) in
Lake County, with residual effects of the SAL and subsidence/dry
air aloft on the western periphery of the upper level low
accounting for the lower values. All combined, there`s a little
less instability and a little more inhibition than previous days,
with MUCAPE values generally ranging from 1,000-1,500 J/kg except
for a couple pockets around 2,000 J/kg (lots of long-skinny CAPE
profiles). As a result, showers and lightning storms will likely
be a little more scattered that previous days. Not super confident
in convective evolution due to weak forcing. Wherever showers and
storms first initiate, likely in the late morning to early
afternoon along the sea breezes, outflow will trigger additional
showers and storms as the sea breezes move inland, with a weak
collision in the evening, then gradual clearing. Drier air aloft
or water loading could provide a bit of downdraft enhancement, and
while 500mb temperatures remain around M8-M7C, lapse rates are
fairly shallow. Overall primary storm threats will be wind gusts
to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall. Storms could be slow and erratic,
delivering a quick 1-3" of rainfall leading to ponding of water on
roads and minor flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas.
Afternoon highs near to slightly below in the upper 80s to around
90 normal thanks to the cloud cover, which combined with humidity
will result in peak heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, and
Minor HeatRisk impacts.

Tuesday-Thursday...Weak mid-upper level troughing moving into the
eastern US ejects the upper level low to the north-northeast, and
further weakens the surface ridge axis. Some drier air Tuesday
(drier being near normal) could limit PoPs compared to previous
days once again, but then moisture surges Wednesday ahead of a
weakening front drooping into the southeast, which combined with
light south to southwesterly flow resulting the sea breeze
collision to the eastern half of the peninsula, rain chances jump
back to well above normal the later half of the week. While a few
stronger storms will be possible, the primary concern will
increasingly become rainfall thanks to daily rounds of heavy
downpours. Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s are forecast to continue, with heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk Impacts.

Friday-Monday...Unsettled conditions with high rain chances
expected to continue into the extended forecast range as the
stalled front accompanied by copious moisture sags into the
southeast and towards Florida. While there is potential for a
tropical/subtropical system to form along the frontal boundary by
the weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and
currently has a low (20%) chance of development over the next 7
days, heavy rainfall will be the primary concern regardless of
development. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be
possible each day, increasing/compounding concerns for flooding.
On the plus side, high cloud coverage will hopefully result in
near to slightly below normal temperatures, with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to around 90, and heat indices in the mid 90s to
around 100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Broad high pressure over the local waters leads to generally
favorable boating conditions outside of showers and lightning
storms through much of the week. Afternoon and evening offshore-
moving showers and storms will remain possible each day, while
overnight activity remains offshore. A few strong storms could
produce gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy
downpours. Winds S-SW at 5-15 kts shift to the SSE-SE in the
afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Increasing coverage of showers and storms are forecast through the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. TEMPOs at all
terminals for reduced VIS/CIGs due to TSRA. Lower confidence in
gustiness, but will amend as needed. SE winds becoming light and
variable overnight, picking up out of the S tomorrow morning.
Another active weather day is forecast tomorrow, with convection
kicking off after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  90  73  89 /  30  70  30  70
MCO  72  91  74  88 /  30  70  30  70
MLB  73  89  73  90 /  40  70  40  70
VRB  69  90  70  91 /  40  70  40  70
LEE  73  88  74  87 /  30  70  30  70
SFB  73  91  73  89 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  73  91  75  89 /  30  70  30  70
FPR  70  88  70  90 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Tollefsen