


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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666 FXUS62 KMLB 070630 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - An active weather pattern persists across east central Florida today, with storm threats including lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through the work week as a result of a persistent moist airmass across the peninsula. - As temperatures warm back to the lower 90s, tropical humidity will make for oppressive peak heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees most afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Today-Tonight...The Atlantic high is forecast to slowly build across the area, with the ridge axis drifting north across the Florida Keys and south Florida. In addition, a mid-level ridge returns to the area, helping to reduce rain and storm chances across much of the area today. Prevailing southwesterly flow is anticipated across the forecast area, with the development of the east coast sea breeze focused primarily from the Cape southward where the flow is a bit lighter. The sea breeze will move inland through the afternoon, with shower and storm activity forecast to develop. There is lower confidence in development farther north, leading to a roughly 30 to 40 percent chance of rain and storms across the greater Orlando area and up to a 60 percent chance of rain and storms near the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. The environment looks similar to yesterday, with modest MUCAPE values and low-level lapse rates, DCAPE values of 800 to 900 J/kg, and PWATs near 2 inches. This means that frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally heavy downpours will be the primary concerns associated with any storms that develop. Activity will be pushed offshore through the late evening hours due to the prevailing southwesterly flow, with continued development across the local waters possible into the overnight hours. Temperatures across east central Florida continue to remain near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the lingering moist airmass will create humid and muggy conditions. Peak heat indices once again may be capable of reaching 100 to 105 in spots, and a Moderate HeatRisk remains in place across much of the area. This means that residents and visitors should ensure they are taking preventative actions to avoid heat stress. This includes remaining adequately hydrated and taking frequent breaks in either the shade or an air conditioned building if outside for extended periods of time. Heading into the overnight hours, conditions are forecast to remain muggy, though lows remain seasonable in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday-Sunday...The ridge axis is forecast to continue drifting northward through Tuesday, settling across central Florida by mid- week and remaining generally in place through the weekend. The exact placement of the axis will determine surface flow, just how far inland the sea breeze is able to move, and where the sea breeze collision may occur. On Tuesday, lighter surface flow will allow for a farther push inland of the sea breeze, with a collision likely focused across the central peninsula. Have maintained a 40 to 50 percent PoP across east central Florida to reflect this. Wednesday and beyond, there remains a greater amount of uncertainty in the placement of the axis. However, there does appear to be some model agreement in a wave of moisture approaching the peninsula by Thursday from the east, further supported by a mid-level low over the peninsula. This will likely allow for greater coverage of showers and storms through the end of the week and into the weekend, so as a result, kept PoPs between 60 to 70 percent through the extended forecast period. Both high and low temperatures are forecast to remain near their climatological normals through this week and into the weekend, though the moisture present will continue to lead to muggy and humid conditions. Peak heat indices will continue to near 100 across much of east central Florida, with some spots nearing 105 at times. Relief from the heat will come each afternoon thanks to the diurnal showers and storms, but residents and visitors to the area should continue to monitor the forecast and plan accordingly to prevent heat-related illnesses. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The Atlantic high is forecast to slowly move northward through Tuesday, settling across the local Atlantic waters mid and late week. This will result in generally favorable boating conditions, with winds remaining around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet present across the local waters. South to southwest winds persist, becoming more southeasterly near the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops each afternoon. The primary hazard for mariners over the next several days will come from convective development, with scattered showers and storms possible over the next several days. Ongoing development into the overnight hours will also be possible, especially as activity moves offshore from the Florida peninsula. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing frequent cloud- to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Locally higher and rougher seas also cannot be ruled out in the immediate vicinity of storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Quiet weather anticipated through the morning and early afternoon with light SSW breezes. Convective coverage looks lower than recent afternoons, requiring TEMPOs only at MLB/FPR/VRB for now where confidence is somewhat greater at this point. Sea breeze should be pinned east of DAB but is forecast to make it onshore south of Cape Canaveral, turning winds SE at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA in the mid/late afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 90 75 / 40 20 40 30 MCO 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20 MLB 91 75 89 75 / 50 20 40 30 VRB 92 72 90 72 / 50 30 40 20 LEE 90 75 91 75 / 40 20 50 20 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 30 ORL 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30 FPR 91 72 90 72 / 50 30 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil