


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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354 FXUS62 KMLB 100009 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 809 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Scattered late afternoon and evening storms today, particularly over the interior. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. - Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F, visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C. - Scattered storms remain in the forecast each day, but overall coverage may increase next week as a slow-moving disturbance approaches the state. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Currently...GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs around 1.6-1.8" across East Central Florida, right around normal for the time of year, but dry air in the low-mid levels, apparent in this morning`s soundings, continues to suppress convection. That said, we are seeing more life than this time yesterday, and even very quick pulses of convection have been able to produce some lightning. Convection is developing a little slower across the northern half of the area due to a residual cool air pool from storms that formed near the nature coast in the morning (though the boundary could be good focus for new storms), and high clouds slowing daytime heating a bit. This is compared to North and South Florida, where higher moisture has supported some decent lightning storms in the early afternoon. Rest of Today-Tonight...Weak, stacked high pressure with a surface ridge axis tenuously extending to Central Florida will continue to produce light winds, until the sea breeze moves in and shifts winds onshore. Showers and lightning storms remain mainly isolated as the sea breezes move inland through the rest of the afternoon (chances 20-40%), with the highest coverage and majority of storms along the collision over the interior in the evening (chances 40-60%). Once again, plenty of instability but dry air entrainment in the low-mid levels will continue to be a hurdle for deep convection. That said, a few stronger storms will be possible where boundaries find pockets of higher low-level moisture, capable of wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Afternoon highs near normal in the U80s-L90s, which combined with humidity will result in peak afternoon heat indices in the U90s-M100s, leading to Moderate HeatRisk impacts across much of the area. Thursday-The Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure slips a little farther south on Thursday and Friday, however, prevailing light winds will allow sea breeze formation each day. The focus of showers and storms looks a little closer to the coast and across South Central Florida on Thursday and Friday, as models continue to indicate somewhat drier air closer to the I-4 corridor. This weekend, the surface ridge axis is forecast to return northward toward Central Florida. Seasonable coverage of afternoon and evening storms, mainly focused over the interior, can be expected as moisture across increases a bit. Quick heating in the morning and early afternoon will allow heat indices to bounce up to as high as 106 deg F. Those working or playing outdoors should know the signs of heat illness and never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Early Next Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Could finally see a change in the pattern, depending on the development of mid-level disturbances approaching from the Atlantic, weakening the surface high and increasing moisture. This should introduce higher coverage of showers and storms across Central Florida. This unsettled setup may last well into next week. Temperatures remain near normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions. The Atlantic high remains in control of local conditions, as the ridge axis shifts from over Central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters today south toward South Florida late in the work week. The ridge axis then shifts back towards Central Florida this weekend. Despite movement of the ridge axis, a loose pressure gradient will result in mainly light southerly winds, shifting southeasterly and increasing a bit to around 10 kts in the afternoon with the sea breeze, then easing and shifting southwesterly towards morning with the land breeze. While stronger storms should mostly remain inland, a few showers and storms are in the forecast for the Atlantic waters, particularly in the overnight and morning hours. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 758 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Convection is winding down this evening, with lingering showers around MCO, and an isolated lightning storm near KLEE. Have maintained VCTS along the interior TAF sites through 02Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions tonight with light and variable winds. SSW/SW winds will increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning before backing onshore in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Similar to today, scattered convection along the sea breeze this afternoon with a sea breeze collision forecast across the interior by late afternoon. Have not included TEMPOs at this time, but some may be added in later TAF packages, especially along the interior with the sea breeze collision. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 75 91 / 40 40 20 40 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 50 50 20 60 MLB 76 90 76 90 / 20 40 20 50 VRB 74 91 74 91 / 10 40 20 50 LEE 75 93 76 93 / 50 40 20 50 SFB 76 94 77 94 / 50 40 20 50 ORL 77 93 77 94 / 50 50 20 60 FPR 74 91 75 90 / 10 40 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Watson