Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 151921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018


...Unseasonably Cool through Friday morning then Gradual Warming
through early Next Week...

Tonight-Fri...A high pressure ridge will remain over the area. This
will maintain the cool/dry air mass tonight.  Skies look mostly
clear except for some thin cirrus.  Min temps should be similar to
this morning, upper 30s to lower 40s. Even though the air mass
and land surface is so dry, will mention patchy frost in the far
north interior again.

On Fri, winds will be light/variable except for an inland moving sea
breeze. The forecast soundings show that there should be some mid-
high level cloudiness, but still expect mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures are forecast to reach the lower/mid 70s along the coast
and mid-upper 70s inland.

Fri Night...Low and mid levels will remain very dry so no rain will
occur but moisture will increase aloft in strong westerly flow.
Forecast soundings indicate there should be some cirrus and
altocumulus clouds. Not as cool with lows mostly in the 50s.

Sat-Sun...High pressure shifts eastward allowing return southerly
flow to develop Sat, becoming westerly Sunday ahead of a weak
front pushing off the southeast US coast. While Sat will be rain
free, 00Z GFS shows the boundary pushing into north FL Sunday with
a band of increased moisture while the 00Z ECMWF keeps the front
and assocd moisture a little farther north. Have maintained a
small (20 percent) shower chance across north half of FA Sunday as
sea breeze interactions late in the day may spark a few showers
but deep convection (thunder) is not expected. Have higher
confidence that the warming trend will continue with lower 80s
interior and upper 70s/near 80 coast.

Mon-Wed...Forecast confidence is low early next week regarding
timing of impulses crossing the area in fast zonal flow aloft and
then a cold front. Ultimately, both forecast guidance develops a
deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS which finally pushes a
frontal boundary cleanly through the peninsula. Have gone with a
model blend focusing 30 to 40 PoPs on Mon and Tue but model trends
indicate that best rain chances may need to be shifted a bit later,
even into Wed. Holding off on thunder in the forecast until deep
convection is supported with the frontal passage. Max temps in the
low to mid 80s Mon-Tue falling back into the 70s Wed.




Tonight-Fri...Good boating conditions.  A high pressure ridge over
the area will keep winds 10 knots or less. Seas are forecast to only
be 2-3 feet tonight and 1-2 feet Fri.

Weekend...High pressure will push seaward into the western Atlc
Sat resulting in southerly flow developing, becoming W/SW Sat
night and Sunday. South winds 10-15 knots Sat may briefly see SW
15-20 knots offshore overnight Sat. Westerly flow Sunday around 10
knots should turn onshore in a sea breeze near the coast in the
afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore and up to 3 ft offshore.


Fri...Another very dry day with long durations of low RH as a high
pressure ridge remains over the area.  Minimum RH values look to be
around 20 percent over the north interior.  A sea breeze at 5-10 mph
should keep coastal minimum values 30-40 percent.

Weekend...On Saturday, a high pressure ridge will shift offshore,
which will generate a south/southwest wind flow and start to
significantly modify RH values. Still, the north interior should
have minimum values 30-35 for several hours with very good dispersion
values so there will be a heightened concern for rapid spread of
new or ongoing fires Sat. Moisture recovery will continue Sun with
min RH values forecast to remain above 40 percent.


DAB  40  72  51  81 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  45  77  54  82 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  40  73  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  41  76  55  80 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  45  77  55  80 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  44  76  54  83 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  48  77  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  39  75  53  81 /   0   0   0  10


FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia
     County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Northern Brevard
     County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County.



SHORT TERM...Lascody
AVIATION...Rodriguez is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.