Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 111327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
927 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018


...Remember, When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors...

Current-Tonight...Another day for early convective initiation in
W/WNW flow aloft. NMRS shower/storm chances forecast areawide.
Storms will be a threat to boaters and all outdoor recreational
activities off/on today. Storm motion will be toward the east or
southeast at 10-15 mph. Threats include cloud to ground/water
lightning, torrential downpours locally, and gusty downburst winds
such that we have witnessed over the past couple of days. Convection
could play havoc, too, with afternoon temperatures depending on both
cloud/storm coverage, but it will still be a warm/humid summer day
in Florida. Max temps generally in the U80s to L90s areawide. The
ECSB, should it develop at all, will be pinned along the coast or
very minimal movement inland. The WCSB will push across the
peninsula once again.


.AVIATION...Westerly flow has gotten convective activity off to an
early start once again. Expect SCT-NMRS shra/tsra coverage through
the day. VC showers/storms will be popular with the occasional tempo
group at many TAF sites. Inland penetration of any ECSB, should it
develop at all, will be difficult. The WCSB will traverse the
peninsula again with the majority of storms piling up across the
eastern peninsula in the afternoon/early evening. Precip/cloud
debris will thin late evening/overnight.


.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Low-level ridge axis remains stymied to
the south. Weak morning offshore flow will become southerly by
afternoon with speeds generally below 15 kts. However, wind
direction may become unrepresentative at times from convection. Seas
AOB 2 ft outside of showers/storms. Offshore moving storms again a
hazard for boaters over the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters
with an early start Cape northward. Inland boaters also need to be
mindful of developing and approaching storms today, again earlier
than usual. Storm motion is out of the west or northwest at 10-15
mph. Torrential downpours, gusty downburst winds and cloud to water
lightning all in play. Shorter dominant wave periods will make
conditions choppy over the near shore Atlc waters.


.HYDROLOGY...The St Johns River at Astor has fallen just below Flood
Stage and the River Flood Warning has been cancelled. However, it is
forecast to remain within Action Stage into next week.

The St Johns Above Lake Harney near Geneva and near Sanford are
forecast to slowly decrease into next week and remain in Action
Stage. The point near Deland has recently fallen below Action Stage,
but heavy rainfall over the basin could easily cause it to rise
slowly again.

Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the latest
stage and forecast information.





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