Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 121921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018


...Cooler Weather on Tap For This Week...

Current through sunset...Diminishing low to mid level frontal clouds
across the central and southern CWA are pushing rapidly east and
southward this afternoon. These clouds should be SE of the areas an
hour or two before 00Z, with increasing/gusty W-WNW winds NW of I-4
spreading southward through sunset, probably to the cusp of LWA
threshold (sustained 17KT/20MPH with higher gusts), so will keep the
Advisory going through planned 8 PM expiration.

Tonight-Tuesday...Cold air advection commences and takes hold of
local weather pattern. Forecast min temps pretty consistent with
previous guidance with U30s-L40s most areas...around 45F for the ORL
metro, and M-U40s Treasure Coast. Full sun Tuesday and a cool NW-N
breeze with max temps ranging from L60s along the Volusia coast to
around 70 toward Lake Okeechobee.

Wednesday...Longwave trough axis to the east and strong ridging
extending from the western Gulf of Mexico, through the Central
Plains, and all the way up through southern Canada will keep the
area in northwesterly flow aloft. This will sustain the dry, much
cooler airmass advection into east central Florida. A dry,
reinforcing cold front will move through Wednesday, but with no
moisture to work with, will only result in an increase in winds
during the afternoon.

After a chilly start in the morning in the low 40s (some upper
30s possible), very dry airmass will promote plenty of sunshine
and allow temperatures to climb into the mid-upper 60s northern
areas and around 70 farther south.

Thursday-Monday...Broad surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast
States and Gulf of Mexico early in the period will slowly
transition eastward into the Atlantic Fri. This will keep the
local area dry, and cooler than normal, though westerly winds on
Fri should boost high temps into the lower-mid 70s. A back door
frontal boundary is then forecast to slide south into the area on
Sat and weaken. The GFS shows the wind flow shifting onshore
quickly, so the main consequence of this frontal boundary should
be to start to moisten the dry air mass.

High pressure is shown sliding offshore Sunday with a more of a
southerly wind component increasing moisture further, but won`t
include PoPs yet as suggested by the GFS. High temps are forecast
to get back above normal Sun-Mon as surface ridge axis settles to
our south and produces a south/southwest wind flow. The air mass
to our south looks dry due to mid level ridging, so do not see any
relief from our very dry conditions.


.AVIATION...VFR/SKC spreading rapidly southward from KISM-KMCO-
KTIX through the KMLB-KSUA corridor. Gusty winds from 270-290
degrees, which had underperformed through 18Z or so, have started
to kick up where skies have cleared out to forecast speeds near
20G30KT as stronger winds just off the deck have mixed down. This
trend will continue through about 00Z before winds relax some


.MARINE...Tonight-Tuesday...W-WNW winds are starting to crank
over the Atlantic with 20P26KT/4FT at 41009/4FT and 27P39KT/8FT at
41010. Thus, marginal gale conditions (frequent gusts AOA 34KT)
look to be starting on time as planned. SCA will continue near
shore, while GLW reverts back to an SCA beyond 20NM after 06Z.
Will need to extend the offshore SCA past 12Z, however, this will
need to occur once the GLW expires to avoid 3-4 concurrent
headlines for those legs.

Wednesday...A dry cold front moving through on Wednesday will
result in an increase in northwesterly to northerly winds to
around 15 kt in the nearshore waters and 15-20 kt in the offshore
waters. Seas will build to 4-5 ft nearshore and 5-6 ft offshore.

Thursday-Saturday...Broad surface high pressure over the Gulf
Coast States and Gulf of Mexico will slowly transition eastward
into the Atlantic Fri, then a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
settle into the waters on Sat. Winds look to be around 10 knots or
less through the period, starting out northerly Thu, veering
southerly Fri and then north/northeast Sat. Seas should be 3-5
feet Thu, then diminish quickly to 1-3 feet Fri/Sat.



Tuesday...Long durations of RH values below 35 percent expected
away from the coast, however wind swill have subsided below 15 MPH
by the afternoon and ERCs have dropped below critical threshold
of 37 for low RH duration. So even though a FWW will not be issued
for Tuesday, the fire danger will be higher than in recent days.

Wednesday...Very dry air will remain in place with long-duration
period of RH below critical thresholds expected in the afternoon.
Values of 20-25% can be expected west of I-95 and 25-35% closer
to the coast. Light northwest winds in the morning will increase
to around 10 mph (10-15 mph closer to the coast) as a dry cold
front moves through the area.

Thursday-Saturday...A very dry air mass will continue over the
area Thu- Fri as high pressure transitions across the state and
into the Atlantic. Lowest RH values are forecast near 20 percent
Thu and should slowly modify to around 25 percent Fri and 35
percent Sat. Wind speeds look 10 mph or less.


DAB  42  63  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  45  68  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  44  68  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  45  68  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  43  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  67  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  45  67  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  44  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern
     Lake County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-
     Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



MID TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Lascody
DSS...Combs/Cristaldi is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.