830
FXUS62 KMLB 091759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Scattered late afternoon and evening storms today, particularly
  over the interior. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph,
  and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms.

- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
  persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
  visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C.

- Scattered storms remain in the forecast each day, but overall
  coverage may increase next week as a slow-moving disturbance
  approaches the state.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida`s weather continues to be strongly influenced by an area of
deep-layer high pressure extending across the subtropics from the W
Atlantic to the Desert Southwest. Tucked beneath the upper high is a
weak wave of energy immediately northeast of the Bahamas. In the
westerlies, a low-amplitude trough is pushing into the Ohio Valley.
Total moisture values are near normal for early July.

Over the next several days, little change to the synoptic pattern is
forecast. The easterly wave in the Atlantic is expected to be
redirected northward, generally not impacting local weather. Upper
ridging remains firmly overhead. However, the weak trough well to
our north may be enough to briefly oscillate the near-surface ridge
axis toward South Florida on Thursday and Friday before it shifts
slightly north toward Central Florida again this weekend.
Regardless, pressure patterns are loose; this suggests that the
sea breezes should be able to form each day.

08/12Z ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a TUTT (tropical
upper tropospheric trough) approaching the Bahamas sometime in the
first half of next week. More importantly, several members also
suggest that a well-defined mid-level wave will transit slowly
westward across Florida. Coincident with this, the surface ridge
axis is forecast to shift southward as moisture increases.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today...

The overall setup is fairly unchanged from yesterday, and HREF
members seem to have high confidence in the evolution of scattered
storms today. Aside from some isolated activity on the advancing sea
breeze, we anticipate that the majority of showers and storms will
be focused over the interior (50-60%) this afternoon and early
evening, with lesser chances (30-50%) along the coast. Mid-level
lapse rates look more impressive, leading to strong instability.
Brief wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rain
due to slow storm motions remain the primary threats. Seasonably hot
and humid with heat indices reaching up to around 106 deg F.

Thursday-Weekend...

Surface high pressure slips a little farther south on Thursday and
Friday, however, prevailing light winds will allow sea breeze
formation each day. The focus of showers and storms looks a little
closer to the coast and across South Central Florida on Thursday and
Friday, with members now indicating somewhat drier air closer to the
I-4 corridor.

This weekend, the surface ridge axis is forecast to return northward
toward Central Florida. Seasonable coverage of afternoon and evening
storms, mainly focused over the interior, can be expected.

Quick heating in the morning and early afternoon will allow heat
indices to bounce up to as high as 106 deg F. Those working or
playing outdoors should know the signs of heat illness and never
leave children or pets in unattended vehicles.

Early Next Week...

A pattern change still appears to be favored as disturbances
approach from the Atlantic, forcing the surface high southward while
enhancing local moisture convergence. This should introduce higher
coverage of showers and storms across Central Florida. This
unsettled setup may last well into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Surface high pressure will remain over Central Florida and the
adjacent Atlantic waters today before slipping toward South Florida
late in the work week. While stronger storms should mostly remain
over land, a few showers and storms are in the forecast,
particularly in the overnight and morning hours. This weekend, the
high shifts back toward Central Florida. The sea breeze should form
each day, enhancing southeast winds at the coast. Generally
favorable boating conditions persist.

Seas 1-3 FT through the weekend. Southerly-component winds (SE off
the Treasure Coast, and more SW north of Cape Canaveral) up to 12 KT
each day, turning onshore at the coast in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

As of TAF issuance, the east coast sea breeze has pushed beyond
all coastal terminals, igniting pulse showers as the boundary
moves inland. Lightning & vis/cig reduction potential has likely
ended to the east, with focus shifting towards a collision across
the interior this afternoon. Have maintained TEMPO for KSFB/KMCO
and KISM after 20Z thru sunset for convection, with slightly
higher chances than days prior. MVFR/IFR reductions in
thunderstorms. Another night of variable winds, becoming south
after 14/15Z. Showers and storms again on Thursday after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  40  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  50  50  20  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  20  50
VRB  74  91  74  91 /  10  40  20  50
LEE  75  93  76  93 /  50  40  20  50
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  50  40  20  50
ORL  77  93  77  94 /  50  50  20  60
FPR  74  91  75  90 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Schaper