Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
442 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018


...Severe Storms with Damaging Winds Possible on Tuesday...

Today...High pressure ridge will weaken as it drifts south and
east over the Bahamas and FL straits. A weak cold front will sag
southward across GA resulting in a W/NW flow across the area.
This will allow for some increase in moisture mainly across our
northern sections but not enough to produce mentionable rain
chances. The offshore flow will not be very strong so a sea
breeze will develop during the afternoon along the coast. Max
temps will reach the mid 80s across most of the area, except lower
80s coast, which are 6-8 degrees above seasonal norms.

Tonight...Light SW flow will produce a mild night with min temps
in the low to mid 60s. Increasing winds just above the surface
should limit fog formation but could see some low clouds (stratus)
move into interior counties from the Gulf.

Mon...Frontal boundary north of the area lifts gradually northward
as a warm front as low pressure over the Midwest shifts eastward
toward the Tennessee Valley. Low level W/SW flow continues across
the area and gradually strengthens through the day, with moisture
increasing into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible mainly across areas north of Okeechobee County and the
Treasure Coast into the afternoon, with best rain chances and
potential for isolated storms from Orlando area northward. Any
storms that can develop will have the potential to produce gusty
winds as low level winds continue to increase into late day. Highs
will be above normal reaching the mid 80s over much of the region,
even at the coast as elevated offshore will keep the east coast sea
breeze from moving inland.

Tue...Base of a vigorous mid level S/W trough approaches and crosses
north Florida toward late Tuesday. This will shift a cold front
across the area into Tuesday night, with a band of showers and
storms pushing rapidly eastward across the area ahead of the front
during the day Tuesday. A substantial increase in westerly low to
mid level flow will occur ahead of the front, with 925-850mb winds
around 40-50 kts. This combined with the approaching trough, a strong
U/L jet of 100-120 kts nudging into north Florida and more than
sufficient instability as highs warm into the low/mid 80s, will
support the potential for severe storms with this activity. The
more unidirectional flow will favor strong to damaging straight
line winds as the main threat, but an isolated tornado will also
be possible.

Wed-Sat...Dry and cooler conditions expected behind the front into
mid to late week as ridge across the central U.S. shifts gradually
eastward and maintains a predominantly northerly flow across the
area. Highs will generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with
lows again dropping into the 40s Wed and Thu nights. High pressure
then shifts offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast into the weekend
with flow veering to the south Saturday, which will warm
temperatures to more seasonable values.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. There may be a period of IFR/MVFR CIGs at
LEE around sunrise.


Today/Tonight...West to northwest winds 10 knots this morning
will decrease by midday and allow a 10 knot sea breeze to form
near the coast. Then offshore (W/SW) flow resumes after sunset as
sea breeze circulation diminishes. Seas 1-2 feet nearshore and 3
feet offshore.

Mon-Thu...Expect deteriorating marine conditions into early next
week as offshore flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front
that will cross the waters Tuesday night. Westerly winds increasing
to around 20-25 knots are forecast as this boundary moves through,
becoming W/NW behind the front into Wed-Thu. The stronger offshore
component to the winds will keep highest seas offshore, up 6 feet
Tuesday night and up to 7-8 feet into late Tuesday night through


Today...Lowest RH values will occur over southern counties
(Okeechobee/St Lucie) between 30 and 35 percent but duration
should only be 2-3 hours and ERC values are not as high so no Red
Flag Warning will be issued. Across the north, increased moisture
and westerly flow will keep lowest RH values between 35 and 45
percent for the first time in several days. No rain is expected
though and temperatures will be above normal, so fire danger will
remain High for most areas.


DAB  82  61  83  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCO  86  63  85  67 /  10  10  30  20
MLB  83  62  85  69 /   0  10  20  10
VRB  83  61  84  68 /   0  10  20  10
LEE  84  64  83  68 /  10  10  30  20
SFB  85  63  84  68 /  10  10  30  20
ORL  86  64  84  68 /  10  10  30  20
FPR  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10





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