Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131905
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
305 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Slower start to convection today due to some
drier air aloft and delayed sea breeze from slightly stronger
offshore flow, especially north of Melbourne. In fact, offshore
moving cu field on satellite north of the Cape indicates sea breeze
may not form at all along the Volusia coast. The HRRR/WRF have not
shown much run to run consistency on overall convective coverage
into the afternoon. However enough moisture exists for at least
scattered showers and storms to develop across the area through late
afternoon/early evening, pushing toward the north to northeast.
Isolated stronger storms possible with any boundary collisions that
occur, with frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall the main concerns. Storms and any lingering debris cloud
rainfall will diminish through the evening hours, with rain chances
ending by midnight.

Tue-Wed...Ridge axis begins to lift northward across the area
through mid week, with low level S/SW flow Tuesday becoming S/SE on
Wednesday. Sufficient moisture will remain in place for scattered
showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon. Also, offshore
flow weakens enough for sea breeze to form and push inland,
providing focus for boundary collisions and enhanced thunderstorm
development across the area into late day. Into Wednesday, drier air
then begins to work into southern areas as ridge lifts farther north
with models continuing to indicate best chance for showers/storms
from Osceola County and across eastern Orange/Seminole and Volusia
counties with late day sea breeze interactions. Highs in the lower
90s over much of the area each day.

Thu-Sun...(Previous Discussion) GFS/ECMWF models have the mid level
ridge strengthening across central FL into Thu and Friday with 500
mbs heights to 594 DM over the area. The low level ridge will also
lift slowly northward across northern portions of east central
Florida into late week. This will spell a drier airmass across the
region with more limited sea breeze convection expected. Will
indicate rain chances below normal in the 20 percent range near the
coast and up to 20-30 percent for the interior. Mid level heights
are forecast to decrease slightly at 500 mbs over the weekend though
the center of the mid level ridge aloft will remain across central
FL. This should continue the trend of below normal rain chances (20
percent coastal to 30 percent interior) and hot temperatures in the
lower 90s coastal to the mid 90s across interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...Some drier air above the surface noted on sounding at
Cape Canaveral resulted in slow cloud growth this morning, but
recent satellite was showing more development and a few showers were
starting to pop up. Expect the sea breeze forming from Cape
Canaveral southward to generate isolated to scattered storms during
the mid to late afternoon. Boundary interactions should then
propagate storms towards the interior terminals through early
evening. Short range models show there`s still a chance for strong
storms from KISM-KMCO-KSFB-KDAB down to KTIX and possibly reaching
KMLB towards sunset. Becoming VFR areawide before midnight.
Scattered storms Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Tue...S/SW winds up to 10-15 knots tonight will become 5-10
knots into tomorrow morning, with winds increasing again and
becoming S/SE into the afternoon as sea breeze forms and move
inland. Seas will continue to range from 1-2 feet. Main concern for
boaters will continue to be the potential for offshore moving storms
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Wed-Sat...SE/S winds Wed will become SE/ESE into late week through
the weekend as the surface ridge lifts northward and remains across
central Florida. Overall coverage of showers and storms will be
limited this period with mainly isolated showers/storms expected
across the east central FL Atlantic waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage,
with Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remaining in
Action Stage. Recent rains this weekend may cause additional sites
to near Action Stage. Refer to the latest Hydrologic Statements
(RVSMLB) for the latest stage and forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  91  74  91 /  40  50  30  40
MCO  74  93  75  92 /  30  50  30  40
MLB  74  91  75  91 /  30  50  30  20
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  75  92  76  93 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  74  93  75  93 /  30  50  30  40
ORL  75  93  76  92 /  30  50  30  40
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Short/Long Term...Weitlich
Impact Wx/Aviation...Lascody
Radar...Smith


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