National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 140038
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
838 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure building into the area will lead to light winds and
mostly clear skies overnight, with a very dry airmass remaining in
place. These favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow
temps to drop quickly this evening, with much cooler than normal
temperatures again overnight. Lows will fall to the low 50s for
many locations, but upper 40s are forecast for much of Volusia
County and far northern Lake County, as well as normally colder
spots south of Orlando. Forecast on track, with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure moving into the area will lead to prevailing VFR
conditions, as a very dry airmass remains in place and skies
remain mostly clear, except for some passing thin cirrus aloft.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, and then will become
easterly around 5-8 mph inland and up to to 9-12 knots along the
coast into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds will continue to diminish into tonight, with speeds around 5
to 10 knots, generally out of the N/NE. Small craft should still
exercise caution over the Gulf Stream waters, south of the Cape
through late evening, for lingering seas up to 6 feet. Otherwise,
seas will continue to decrease, falling to 5 feet or less
overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently-Tonight... High pressure (1028mb) continues to build over
over the Deep South and the Gulf of Mexico towards the state of
Florida which has resulted in northeast flow and another dry day for
east central Florida. Current temperatures are in the low 70s to low
80s with RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s under clear sunny
skies. North to northeast winds at 10 to 15mph are forecast to
weaken and become variable overnight as high pressure moves across
northern Florida before settling offshore over the western Atlantic
into Sunday evening. Another chilly night is forecast with overnight
lows forecast to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s west of I-95 as
well as coastal Volusia county with the low to upper 50s along the
coast to the south under clear skies.

Sunday... High pressure will continue to build over the state of
Florida, before settling offshore over the western Atlantic into the
evening hours. As this occurs, onshore flow will develop over east
central Florida into the afternoon with east winds at 5-15 mph. Dry
conditions are forecast (relative humidity values as low as the mid
20s to low 40s) with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
along the coast and the low to mid 80s west of I-95 under sunny
skies.

Sun Night-Mon Night...Mid-level ridging over the SW GoMex extending
northward through the central CONUS will travel eastward across the
Gulf, Deep South, and Upper Midwest as a vigorous upper level system
pushes across the expansive western U.S. behind it. This will keep
NW flow aloft across the FL peninsula with occasional weak impulses
traversing the region. At the surface, high pressure to be
centered over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis reaching
back westward across the central FL peninsula will slowly begin
to move northward. Any fronts will continue to steer clear (north)
of the area with a weakening pressure gradient in place and
forecast lighter winds. We continue to advertise MSunny/MClear
skies with dry conditions day/night. Overnight mins into Mon
morning, mainly M-U50s, except some L60s along the Space/Treasure
coasts. Afternoon highs on Mon near 80F along the coast with
L-M80s (a few U80s) into the interior. Slightly warmer, again,
overnight with lows into Tue morning in the U50s to L60s.

Tue-Sat...The mid-level ridging will continue to build eastward
across the eastern GoMex and Deep South thru Tue-Tue night before
flattening by mid-week as it is knocked back by shortwave energy
traversing the Deep South. Surface high pressure centered over the
western Atlc with associated east-west ridging continues to lift
slowly north, before getting pushed further seaward with the
approach of a weakening cold front that continues to be
delayed until at least Sat (or Sun). There is some discrepancy if
this boundary washes out across central FL or returns northward
later in the weekend. Moisture and instability still remain
somewhat poor and will continue to keep the extended dry for now.
Surface winds do become onshore thru mid-week. Warming trend in
full-effect areawide with 80s and perhaps some L90s (interior)
Wed-Sat. Overnight mins well into the 60s areawide over the
remainder of the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently-Sunday... Fire sensitive to critical conditions are
expected through the weekend. North to northeast winds at 5 to 15
kts late this afternoon will veer onshore into Sunday afternoon at
around 5-12kts. Minimum RH values are expected to drop into the mid
20s to low 30s inland west of I-95, as well as nearshore Volusia
county with the mid 30s to low 40s along the coast to the south
Sunday afternoon. Additionally, a Moderate risk for Significant Fire
Potential is outlooked over central Florida Sunday.

Mon-Thu...Continued fire sensitive with Significant Fire Potential
ranging from Low to Moderate. 20FT ERLY winds on Mon up to around 10
mph, ESE on Tue/Wed 10-15 mph, and 7-12 mph Thu. Some higher gusts
can be expected. Lowest min RH values L-U30s W of I-95 on Mon-
Wed, M-U30s here on Thu. Warm-Hot temperatures forecast to
continue through next week. Conditions to remain dry well into the
extended. Next forecast front pushed back until at least Sat/Sun,
but slim chances for precip at this point with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  52  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  53  79  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  52  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  51  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  84  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  52  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Heil
AVIATION...Weitlich