496
FXUS62 KMLB 101754
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially over
  interior locations; frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55 mph,
  and locally heavy rainfall are possible

- Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F
  into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay
  cool and well-hydrated

- Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and
  evening with coverage increasing late weekend into next week;
  strong storms and localized flooding possible

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GOES imagery shows banding of moisture across the peninsula this
morning, with PWATS up to around 2.0" in the higher bands, and
down to 1.6" in the lower bands due to drier air in the mid-upper
levels. This drier air is once again suppressing convection,
apparent in the early development of the cu-field, and will be a
hurdle for showers and storms going into the afternoon and
evening. Latest CAMs guidance has been a mixed bag, with some
more enthusiastic than others, but notably the HRRR has been
consistently going with lower coverage, so based on that and MOS
guidance, lowered PoPs across ECFL a bit to mostly 30-50%.

That said, there is still copious instability thanks to steep
lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft, and deeper convection
that overcomes entrainment will develop very quickly. In addition,
drier air aloft will be able to enhance downdrafts. As a result,
stronger storms that manage to develop will be capable of gusty
winds to 55 mph, frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning,
small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. While widespread severe
storms are not forecast, one or two storms could become locally
severe (60+ mph winds).

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Today-Tonight...Early this morning, mostly clear conditions are in
place from Titusville southward. RAP analysis and GOES-derived PW
indicate more moisture in the environment from Leesburg/Daytona
Beach northward. Here, low and mid level clouds are developing. A
similar forecast is in play today with temperatures warming into the
low to mid 90s. PW approaching 2", combined with hot temperatures,
will lead to peak heat index values of 102-106 degrees this
afternoon. Take precautions if planning to be outdoors, including
frequent cooling and hydration breaks.

The only heat relief may come in the form of scattered afternoon/early
evening storms, which are forecast to develop first along the
east coast sea breeze, then migrate westward with time. After 4-5
PM, a collision of sea breezes and storm-driven boundaries is
anticipated across the interior. The environment appears similar
in model sounding data to yesterday, specifically the steep low-
level lapse rates, 800+ J/kg DCAPE, and slow/erratic storm
motion. Strong updrafts that quickly become water-loaded are
likely to be quick to collapse. Thus, gusty winds may be brought
to the surface at times, upwards of 45 to 55+ mph. With 500mb
temps around -8C, small hail cannot be ruled out. Frequent
lightning and torrential rain (1-3") will also accompany these
storms. While widespread severe storms are not forecast, one or
two storms could become locally severe (60+ mph winds). Activity
will dissipate after sunset, leaving behind warm and muggy
conditions into early Friday.

Friday-Weekend...Surface high pressure in the vicinity and ridging
aloft will allow for a continuation of the current weather
pattern. Heat and high humidity will combine each day to produce
heat indices in the low to mid 100s, perhaps approaching 107
degrees in a few spots by Saturday and especially Sunday. Those
with outdoor weekend plans should keep this in mind and stay
protected from prolonged heat exposure by taking frequent cooling
and hydration breaks. While the prospects of a Heat Advisory for
Sunday are not likely at this time, these mid-100 degrees heat
indices can be dangerous to heat-sensitive individuals.

The rhythm of coastal sea breeze development and daytime surface
heating will lead to growing shower and storm chances from midday
into the afternoon hours. Eventual sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions will lead to maximized rain chances (55-65 pct) over
interior locations, especially Friday and Saturday. As mid level
ridging starts to break down Sunday, more supportive energy swings
southward across the state. As a result, slightly higher storm
chances and greater coverage is reflected in the forecast for
Sunday. Most activity will come to an end after 9-10 PM each
evening as temperatures settle into the mid 70s overnight.

Monday-Wednesday...Increasingly unsettled weather is forecast into
next week as a weakly stacked trough (sfc-500mb) becomes
established over the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. Waves of
energy and deep moisture convergence (anomalously high PW of
2.1"+) will likely support rounds of showers and lightning storms
each day. While the highest coverage is likely to be focused
during the daylight hours, showers could linger deeper into the
night in this pattern. One thing to note is that the latest 00z
GFS is noticeably wetter than the 00z ECMWF through the middle of
next week. Ensemble guidance across the board is closer to a 7-day
total QPF of 1.5-2.5" for most east-central Florida locations.
However, confidence is high that locally heavy rainfall amounts
will push 7-day totals higher. Repeated rainfall over the same
locations, especially urban areas, may lead to brief localized
flooding. The WPC has included the FL Peninsula in a Day 4 and 5
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Due to the high rain
chances and added cloud cover, daytime temps will drop back into
the upper 80s to low 90s...especially by Tuesday- Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Outside of isolated to scattered storms, favorable boating
conditions are forecast to continue. Light SSW winds each morning
back to the SSE in the afternoon hours with the developing sea
breeze, increasing to 10-15 kt through the late evening. Then, winds
settle at or below 10 kt, veering SSW again toward morning with the
land breeze. A majority of shower and storm activity through Friday
will be focused inland, though coverage of storms is generally
forecast to increase this weekend into next week. Seas 2-3 ft,
except where locally higher in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The sea breeze has formed and is pushing inland. Scattered
lightning storms have formed along the sea breeze, mainly north
of MLB, with an outflow boundary pushing into central Florida.
Have maintained VCTS starting at 18Z for coastal sites. Sea
breeze collision looks to occur in the interior once again today.
Have added TEMPOs for MCO, SFB, ISM from 21-23Z for MVFR/IFR
conditions. There is some uncertainty with timing and overall
coverage of storms this afternoon, so will monitor and amend as
necessary. Mostly dry overnight with winds becoming light and
variable before shifting SSW by mid morning on Friday and
increasing to 5-10 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  75  92 /  20  40  30  40
MCO  76  94  76  94 /  30  60  40  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  30  50
VRB  75  91  74  91 /  20  50  20  40
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  10  40  30  50
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  20  50  30  50
ORL  77  94  77  94 /  20  50  40  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson