Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 171907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
307 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Continued Warm into Monday Before Another Strong Cold Front
Moves Through Tuesday...

Current...Considerably warmer afternoon highs are being realized
thanks to return flow on the backside of high pressure centered
to our east. The Atlantic sea breeze is slowly marching inland
along the coast as it encounters low level flow out of the
southwest. Behind the boundary, temperatures are several degrees
cooler (upper 70s) over the barrier islands thanks to the recently
cooled shelf waters. For the remainder of the afternoon, mostly
sunny skies will prevail as the sea breeze pushes inland and backs
low level winds to the south and southeast.

Tonight...Surface flow that was disrupted as a result of the sea
breeze will veer back to the southwest overnight. Guidance is
hinting at some fog over the west coast advecting toward Lake
County at sunrise, however, confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time. Warming trend continues
with overnight lows about 5 degrees warmer than last night, mid
to upper 50s most locales.

Sunday...A weakening surface front will stall just north of the
state tomorrow as low pressure pushes off the Carolina coast.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of the boundary will keep
temperatures above normal for the middle of March with afternoon
highs around 80 at the coast and 83-85 inland. PWATs are shown
building through the day, mainly as a result of mid and upper
level moisture. Guidance continues to spit out some precip across
the far north toward sunset in conjunction with a passing
disturbance aloft and some sea breeze interaction. If it were
later in the year and moisture a bit higher, would have no problem
with a low chance for precip over these areas, however, late day
model soundings around Daytona continue to display quite a bit of
dry air near the surface. Have opted to cap PoPs below mentionable
levels (20%) and keep all areas dry.

Monday-Tuesday...A strong shortwave trough at 500 mbs will track
eastward across srn MO toward wrn TN into Monday afternoon with mid
level disturbances tracking across N FL through the day. Deeper
moisture will move across the nrn peninsula ahead of this system
with isolated convection developing across nrn areas into the
afternoon. Low level WSW flow will increase to 20-30 knots in the H9-
H8 layer which should not allow the east coast sea breeze to move
onshore. Think there will be sufficient low/mid level moisture to
generate some convection that will move quickly toward the east
coast into the late afternoon. Highs temps will be warm Monday in
the lower to mid 80s. Another stronger mid level trough will dig
into AL/GA on Tuesday with stronger environmental southwest winds
through a deep layer, increased moisture and favorable upper level
jet support. This will bring numerous showers and scattered storms
across nrn areas by mid day and srn sections into late
afternoon/early evening. The strong winds 45-50 knots at 850 mbs
would portend the risk for a slight risk of severe weather with
straight line damaging winds being the main hazard. Short range
models indicates that showers/storms ahead of the front will affect
southern portions of east central Florida into Tuesday evening
before moving southeast across the Atlantic waters. Drier air is
forecast to move into the area late Tuesday night behind the front.

Wed-Fri (Previous)...Base of strong mid/upper level trough shifts
offshore the southeast U.S. coast mid-week shifting cold front
farther south of Florida. Ridge across the central U.S. shifts
gradually eastward with a predominantly northerly flow keeping cool
and dry conditions in place across central Florida through the
remainder of the work week. Highs will generally range from the
upper 60s to mid 70s, with lows again dropping into the 40s.


.AVIATION...Continued VFR with a small chance for reduced visibility
at Leesburg toward sunrise Sunday.


Tonight...Tranquil conditions as high pressure settles to our
east. South winds around 10 knots this evening turn to the
southwest and west overnight, increasing to 15-18 knots offshore
for a period as they veer. Seas 1 foot nearshore, up to 3 feet
well offshore.

Sunday...Offshore winds around 10 knots weaken before
transitioning to the east as the Atlantic sea breeze develops in
the afternoon. Seas 1 foot nearshore and up to 3 feet well

Monday/Mon Night...W to SW winds to 10-15 knots will increase to 15-
20 knots offshore Monday night ahead of the next front approaching
the area late Tuesday. Some convection may affect the nrn waters into
Monday afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 ft Monday will build to 4 ft
offshore Monday night.

Tue-Wed (Previous)...Pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday ahead of
an approaching cold front that will cross the waters into Tuesday
night. The front should be accompanied by fast moving storms pushing
offshore Tuesday/Tue evening. Poor to hazardous boating conditions
expected Tuesday into Wednesday as winds increase out of the W/SW to
around 20-25 knots into Tuesday night, becoming W/NW into Wednesday
behind the passing boundary. The more offshore component to the
winds will keep highest seas well offshore, up 6 feet Tuesday and up
to 7 feet into late Tuesday night through Wednesday.


DAB  58  80  62  82 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  59  84  63  85 /   0  10  10  20
MLB  58  81  62  84 /   0  10  10  20
VRB  57  81  61  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  60  83  65  83 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  59  84  63  85 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  60  84  64  85 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  56  81  59  84 /   0  10  10  10


FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Orange-Seminole.



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