154
FXUS62 KMLB 112336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially across
  the southern counties; frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55
  mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F
  into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay
  cool and well-hydrated.

- Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and
  evening with coverage increasing into next week; strong storms
  and localized flooding possible.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently...Southerly to westerly flow around the pressure ridge
axis extending towards South Florida from the Atlantic high has
kept the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast through the
early afternoon, but is now making a push inland. Increasing
moisture advecting from the south in this flow has supported an
early start to showers and storms along the Treasure Coast on the
sea breeze. On the other side of the state, the west coast sea
breeze pushing inland quickly from the Nature Coast has also
become active, producing showers and lightning storms that are
moving towards Lake and Volusia counties, but running into a less
favorable environment there. So far lightning storms have been
much less icy with slightly lower lighting activity than the last
couple days due to modest warming in the mid-levels.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Showers and lightning storms will
continue to develop along the inland moving sea breeze, with a
collision later in the evening, skewed into the western interior
to the south and a closer to the I-4 corridor to the north.
Highest PoPs 50-70% extend from the Treasure Coast inland and
northward towards the southern portions of the Orlando Metro,
where increasing moisture will support the highest coverage of
showers and storms. Slightly lower chances of 30-50% across the
northern counties due to a band of lower moisture in the mid-upper
levels fighting against deep convection. Lapse rates are a little
less impressive than the last couple days thanks to the slightly
warmer mid-levels, but instability continues to be plentiful,
supporting strong storms capable of wind gusts to 55 mph, frequent
cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and torrential downpours.
Slow/erratic moving storms from weak steering flow and chaotic
boundary interactions will be capable of delivering a quick 1-3"
of rainfall, which could produce ponding of water on roads and
minor flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas. Afternoon
highs in the L-M90s combined with the increasing moisture
producing gross conditions, with peak afternoon heat indices
101-107F.

Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The surface
ridge axis gradually retreats as weak troughing builds offshore
the southeast U.S. coast into Sunday. Increasingly humid
conditions and continued rain chances (~60%) are forecast through
the period. Temperatures hold slightly above normal this weekend,
ranging the low to mid 90s. When factoring in humidity, maximum
apparent temperatures are expected to climb between 102-107F, and
conditions could near Heat Advisory criteria. A Moderate to Major
HeatRisk will affect individuals without effective cooling and
adequate hydration. To reduce risk of heat stress, outdoor weekend
activities should be limited to the morning hours ahead of peak
heating while still incorporating frequent breaks in an air
conditioned building or the shade.

Some relief from the heat may come in the form of afternoon rain
chances each day. Weak synoptic flow should allow the east and
west coast sea breeze to push inland each day, helping to kick
start showers and storms. However, peak coverage (60%) remains
favored in the late afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundaries
interact and a sea breeze collision occurs. Ridging above 700mb
will generally limit development of well organized strong storms
due to weak shear and warming temperatures aloft. However,
favorable low level lapse rates should still be supportive enough
for strong updrafts which can mix down dry air aloft (DCAPE >
1,000 J/kg). Therefore, an isolated strong storm threat remains.
Primary hazards associated with isolated stronger storms include
wind gusts up to 55mph and lightning strikes. Minimal steering
flow will lead to slow and erratic storm movement. A localized
heavy rainfall threat continues where repeated rounds of slow
moving storms may occur.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak wave of
mid level vorticity lifts northwestward from the Bahamas and over
the Florida peninsula. At the surface, global models have hinted
at a broad area of low pressure developing in vicinity of Florida,
and a wet pattern looks to set up from Monday onward. Rain
chances Monday have been increased to 70-80%, with the rest of the
forecast continuing to call for chances around 70% that could
also see gradual trends higher as confidence increases in time. A
saturated air column with PWATs greater than 2" could fuel a
flooding rainfall threat, but there are some significant model
inconsistencies in daily QPF output that will need to be monitored
with future forecast updates. While widespread totals are
uncertain, more localized daily instances of 2-4" will be possible
across areas which receive multiple rounds of showers and storms.
This could result in ponding of water on roadways and minor
flooding of urban or low lying areas.

Temperatures fall a few degrees into next week with increasing
rain chances, and highs generally range the upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon. Lows temperatures hold steady in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Winds and seas outside of storms generally favorable for boating.
Atlantic high pressure continues to weakly influence local
conditions through the weekend, as the ridge axis meanders north
and south across the Florida peninsula, continuing light southerly
flow shifting onshore in the afternoon and evening with the sea
breeze, and offshore in the overnight and morning with the land
breeze. A weak disturbance begins to develop off the Southeast
seaboard Sunday into Monday, decreasing confidence in forecast
wind direction, but speeds currently expected to remain 5-15 kts.
Forecast calls for flow to shift more westerly, but with a weak
pressure gradient the sea breeze should continue to develop in the
afternoon and shift winds south to southeast. The primary impact
of the disturbance will be high chances of showers and lightning
storms. The Atlantic high builds back towards Florida going
towards midweek, returning southerly flow. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR continues for the next 24 hours outside of convection.
Generally TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof SCT showers and lightning
storms across the I-4 corridor and Volusia coast. Activity will
wind down thru mid-late evening. The ECSB continues to move
inland this evening. ESE/SE winds behind sea breeze will "veer" to
light S/SW overnight. SW/W winds 5-10 kts Sat "back" to ESE/SE
along the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze formation and
slow march inland. SCT showers and storms Sat afternoon/early
evening. "VCTS" in some TAFs (early/mid aftn) with TEMPO groups
inclusive at a later time as applicable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  30  40  20  60
MCO  76  95  76  94 /  40  60  20  70
MLB  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  60
VRB  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  10  60
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  30  40  10  60
SFB  76  95  76  94 /  30  50  20  70
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  40  50  20  70
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  20  40  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock