Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 131933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
333 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Cool Weather on Tap Through Thursday Night...
...Warmer Temperatures for the Upcoming Weekend into Early Next

Tonight-Wed...High pressure ridge nosing in behind cold front over
the southern Bahamas was easing the pressure gradient and
diminishing northerly winds.  A weak reinforcing front will drop
through the area late tonight/early Wednesday and briefly increase
northerly boundary layer flow again. MOS min temps look close to
persistence in the lower-mid 40s. Highs Wed should be a few
degrees higher than today in the upper 60s to lower 70s, except
mid 60s along the Volusia coast. Continued very dry with sunny
skies again.

Wed Night-Thu...Surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast
States and northern Gulf will settle across the Florida peninsula
late Thu overnight while weakening. Overnight lows continue very
cool with readings in the U30s to L40s most areas. May need to add
patchy frost at some point into the grids/zones for our normally
colder rural locations for late Wed night/early Thu morning.
Afternoon highs recovering slowly into the lower 70s, except mid-
upper 60s along the Volusia coast.

Fri-Tue...Initial weak surface high pressure over the peninsula will
continue to slide into the western Atlc Fri into Sat with ridging
over the south-central peninsula. Another weak front is forecast to
glance across our northern zones on Sun. Another quick moving
weather system on its heals will push across the northern Gulf Sun
overnight and the FL peninsula on Mon. Depending on further model
consistency, this could be our next best shot at measurable precip
in the extended. Guidance hints at another possible frontal passage
Tue overnight/early Wed morning. Generally WNW/NW flow aloft thru
the period with only small pieces of energy traversing the Florida
peninsula in association with aforementioned weak weather systems.

Continue to keep conditions dry thru early Sun, but do introduce a
small PoP generally north of MLB for Sun afternoon. Confidence
currently low here. A brief lull in activity then PoPs are re-added
for Sun overnight I-4 corridor northward for the approach of the
Gulf system. Chance PoPs currently for Mon when the weather system
overspreads the peninsula. Will not add thunder mention just yet,
but this will be a possibility as long as the models can show some
consistency with adequate moisture return and instability.

A moderation upwards for temperatures into the extended. Generally
70s areawide on Fri, possible 80 degree readings interior on Sat
afternoon, U70s/L80s most areas on Sun, 80s into Mon-Tue. Warmer
lows, too, with L-M50s Fri overnight/Sat morning, M-U50s Sat
overnight/Sun morning, and back into the 60s for lows early next




Tonight-Wed...High pressure ridge nosing into the waters will
provide a northwest/north wind flow.  Speeds have dropped off so
will allow Small Craft Advisory in the Gulf Stream to expire.  A
slight increase is forecast late tonight into Wed as a weak
reinforcing front drops into the waters, with possible speeds
15-20 knots offshore. A Small Craft Operators Exercise Caution
statement will be necessary in the Gulf Stream. Seas 3-5 feet
nearshore and up to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream on Wed.

Wed Night-Thu...Surface high pressure will move across the Gulf
Coast States during this time and eventually across the FL peninsula
Thu overnight. The pressure gradient relaxes Thu with speeds
falling to 10 kts or less with direction more variable by late Thu
afternoon and evening before gaining back a more light westerly
component late Thu overnight north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3-5
ft subsiding to AOB 3 ft Thu overnight.

Fri-Sat...Very favorable boating conditions during this time. High
pressure ridging over the south-central peninsula will finally push
further seaward into the western Atlc Sat overnight. Lighter winds
continue transitioning to southerly on Fri afternoon, light offshore
Fri night. Speeds generally 6-12 kts at highest peak during this
period, otherwise fairly light and occasionally variable in
direction. A weak frontal boundary will push into north FL Sat
overnight, but for now am keeping any precip generally absent from
the forecast. Seas remain 1-2 ft, except perhaps some 3 ft seas
again offshore Sat overnight.


Wed...Little change in the pattern is indicated with dry northwest
winds continuing. Long durations of low RH will occur over the
interior with minimum values close to 20 percent. ERC values
indicate Red Flag conditions will be met in Seminole/Orange
counties again, so will issue a Fire Weather Watch there.
Additionally, northwest winds should be 10-13 mph in the afternoon
which would yield a little greater threat of fire spread.

Thu-Sat...Continued very dry Thu with a gradual moderation of
temperatures Fri into Sat. Likely to see some teens/low 20s for
min RHs Thu across the interior with 25-35pct readings closer
towards the east coast. A potential jump back upwards of several
percent on Fri, but still very dry as RH values fall into the mid
20s over the interior and 30-40pct near the coast. Another slight
bump upwards for Sat with 30s/40s across ECFL for RH values. Wind
speeds generally under 10 mph each afternoon with a weak pressure
gradient across the area as high pressure (ridging) lies overhead.
Expect much variability with the weak winds during the day. Each
night expect near calm winds or normal drainage flow for ECFL.


DAB  40  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  44  70  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  43  70  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  43  70  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  42  69  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  46  70  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  41  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Orange-Seminole.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Orange-Seminole.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Johnson
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