Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1002 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018


...High Rain Chances Will Continue Next Few Days with Locally
Heavy Rainfall...

Today-Tonight...Mid-upper level trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is maintaining a deep southerly wind flow and high precipitable
water, but also extensive mid-upper level debris cloudiness.  This
will limit the extent and duration of any direct solar insolation.
However, morning soundings show that it won`t take much heating for
convection to form.  The greatest heating should occur along and
northwest of I-4, so the highest chance for lightning storms should
be there.  The current forecast has showers likely and a slight
chance of thunderstorms areawide.  Won`t plan any significant
changes unless convective trends warrant.

The GFS shows moisture convergence focusing on the southeast coast
today into tonight as southeast flow becomes enhanced between weak
surface trough vicinity south Florida and entrenched Atlantic ridge.
So heavy rain may become a concern across our southern coast late in
the day and into this evening.


High moisture over the area will eventually lead to one or more
rounds of showers/storms at most of the TAF sites.  Timing will be
difficult due to extensive mid/high level cloudiness which
limits/delays surface heating.  The greatest chance for storms with
heavy rain should be at the interior terminals about 17-21z.  The
models suggest that southern terminals (KVRB-KSUA) may have a heavy
rain potential towards 00z.


Today/Tonight...Poor conditions for small craft operation as stout
Atlantic ridge maintains a southeast/south gradient wind near 15
knots.  41009 has had seas 4-5 feet this morning, with stronger flow
and higher seas shown farther offshore at 41010. Therefore, exercise
caution conditions are likely occurring in our offshore zones, 15-20
knots with seas up to 6 feet.  In addition, scattered to numerous
showers and isolated storms will move northwest/north across most of
the waters and could produce wind gusts 30-35 knots.





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