


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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600 FXUS62 KMLB 291720 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - High coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms each day this week. Slow moving storms will be capable of wind gusts to around 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall, leading to minor flooding. - Humid conditions will continue to lead to apparent temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through at least mid week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Today-Tonight...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped across central Florida today, as an upper level low moves northwestward across the Bahamas. Ample moisture remains locked in over the forecast area today, with PWATs 1.8-2.1" supporting widespread coverage of showers and storms once again this afternoon into this evening. PoPs generally 60-80% across the area today. CAMs suggest the high coverage along and north of the I-4 corridor from early to mid-afternoon. Then, increasing coverage south and eastward into the evening, as outflow boundaries and the sea breezes collide. It`s possible that portions of the southern Treasure Coast may not see convection until the evening hours, should they avoid and showers and storms developing along the sea breeze early in the afternoon. While deep moisture through the column will limit the amount of DCAPE, a few stronger wind gusts to around 50 mph in precip loaded storms, especially along any boundary collisions, cannot be ruled out. 500 mb temperatures -9 to -8C and storm motions 15 mph or less (slowest across southern portions of the forecast area) will also support the threat for small hail and slow moving storms leading to locally heavy rainfall. Quick accumulations of 1-3" will be possible and could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. There is a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall north and west of a line from Lake Okeechobee to Melbourne today. Slow storm motions will allow outflow boundary collisions to keep convection ongoing into the evening hours. CAMs support debris showers (with occasional embedded lightning strikes) persisting into the late evening (10 PM - midnight). Then, drier conditions are forecast to prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours. Light south to southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast at around 10-15 mph this afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Seasonable temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast this afternoon. Although, humid conditions will make temperatures feel closer to the upper 90s and near 100. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday-Wednesday...The upper level low drifts northward through early this week, remaining just offshore from the eastern Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, the ridge axis persists, before weakening into mid-week, as a trough drops into the Southeast US. Thus, little change to the overall sensible pattern, with deep moisture and PWATs 1.7-2+" lingering over the local area. High coverage of afternoon showers and storms (PoPs 50-70%) will linger into the evening hours, as prevailing south to southwesterly flow leads to a collision favoring the eastern side of the peninsula, though steering flow will remain generally light (around 15 mph or less). A few strong storms will remain possible, with modest upper level support and 500 mb temperatures -8 to -9C. However, locally heavy rainfall will become an increasing concern, with daily rounds of heavy downpours. Quick accumulations of 1-3" will remain possible. Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast to continue. However, apparent temperatures are expected to increase slightly each day, returning to the lower 100s by Wednesday. Thursday-Sunday...Some uncertainty continues in the long term for the holiday weekend, as the weak surface front drifts into the Southeast and stalls into late week, ushering the Atlantic ridge axis farther out to sea. The evolution of this stalled boundary and any features that it may help produce remains very low confidence and bears watching. However, the overall forecast thinking remains the same, regardless: high coverage of showers and storms looks to continue each afternoon and evening into next weekend, as deep moisture lingers. For now, have capped PoPs at 60-70% each day due to the time frame and uncertainty. With multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible each day, minor flooding concerns could increase in some spots. High cloud coverage would help to keep temperatures seasonable, though humid conditions will continue to support heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions will persist through this week; however, high coverage of afternoon showers and storms will continue, some of which may drift offshore during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong, capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Prevailing south to southwest winds will remain less than 15 kts. However, will see winds become southeasterly along the coast each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Seas 1-3ft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Earlier start to showers and storms than initially forecast, so adjusted TEMPO timing forward at all terminals, with gusty winds and VIS/CIG reductions due to TSRA. Added in TEMPO groups at FPR and SUA based on the latest CAM guidance. Activity diminishes by 02Z across the area, with winds becoming light out of the southwest overnight. Wind become more southeasterly along the coast tomorrow morning as the sea breeze develops and begins to move inland. Another active day is forecast for Monday, with VCTS kicking off as early as 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 86 72 89 / 50 70 30 60 MCO 73 87 73 90 / 60 70 30 60 MLB 72 87 74 89 / 50 60 40 60 VRB 69 89 69 90 / 60 50 40 60 LEE 73 84 73 87 / 60 70 30 60 SFB 73 87 72 90 / 60 70 30 60 ORL 74 87 74 90 / 60 70 30 60 FPR 69 88 70 89 / 60 50 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Tollefsen