Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 101324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
922 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018


Current-Tonight...Local HRRR not handling the morning convection
north of I-4 too well. Will update grids/zones to include a little
earlier mention of showers/storms here. Surmise that a past outflow
boundary, early surface heating, and model forecast surge in
moisture all are playing a role in this early initiation. Could be a
subtle piece of energy aloft also aiding in convective development.
Aside from cosmetic changes to the near-term no other changes to be
made. Later day convection will again favor the eastern peninsula
with the deep W/NW flow across the region. Will be mindful of
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, torrential downpours and
gusty winds in excess of 50 mph in stronger cells. Yesterday we saw
strong storm outflows arrive well in advance of precipitation.

Temps a few degs abv avg with aftn maxes in the L/M90s, overnight
mins in the L/M70s.


.AVIATION...Mesoscale models a bit behind in reference to the early
convection north of I-4 this morning. Will monitor our northern TAF
site responsibility (I-4 corridor) and update (tempo) as necessary.
Bigger show potential later today as the ECSB, if it develops at
all, likely to remain pinned near coast (better potential Treasure
Coast), but the WCSB will traverse the peninsula with relative ease.
Expect offshore moving convection near northern TAF sites this
morning and early afternoon with later chances south from the Cape.
Lightning, torrential downpours, and gusty downburst winds the
primary players today.


.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Low-level ridge axis remains suppressed
over the southern FL peninsula. Deep W/WNW flow over the area will
keep the ECSB pinned along the coast or perhaps pushed just off the
coast, at times, if it is able to develop at all (especially north
of the Treasure Coast). Else winds are expected to become L/V with
speeds generally under 10 kts outside of convection. Offshore moving
storms a possibility this afternoon, and potentially earlier Volusia
coast where convection has already developed over the north-central
portion of that County. Storm motion will be from the West or
Northwest at around 15 kts. Seas AOB 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft
offshore, but locally higher invof storms.

Strong storm outflows from storm cells may arrive well ahead of
precipitation (as was witnessed on Thursday), this includes inland
lakes as well as the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters.
Lightning can also strike many miles outside of the parent storm
cell. Mariners will need to keep an eye to the sky and seek safe
port well ahead of approaching showers/storms.


.HYDROLOGY...Previous...The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast
to remain close to flood stage into the weekend. A River Flood
Warning remains in effect there until a slow decline commences late
this weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, river levels are
forecast to remain within Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.





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