644
FXUS62 KMLB 070515
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
115 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- An active weather pattern persists across east central Florida
  today, with storm threats including lightning strikes, wind
  gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through
  the work week as a result of a persistent moist airmass across
  the peninsula.

- As temperatures warm back to the lower 90s, tropical humidity
  will make for oppressive peak heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Gusty outflow from convection that moved
onshore along the southwest Florida coast early this morning
persisted into east central Florida early this afternoon, leading
to a few additional showers and storms, as well as wind gusts to
around 35-45 mph. Models have struggled with this feature, though
the HRRR seems to have initialized better in recent runs. With
clearer, more stable air behind the boundary, the big question for
the remainder of the afternoon will be how quickly the boundary
layer can recover. This will determine the amount and timing of
any additional showers and storms today. There is evidence of
recovery along the western portion of the peninsula, with an
increasing cumulus field noted on visible GOES-East imagery. Some
cumulus development can also be seen across portions of the
eastern half of the peninsula already. This would support current
CAM guidance, which does show additional showers and storms along
the coast late this afternoon into early this evening. For now,
have maintained PoPs 40-50% from around Melbourne southward,
though this is low confidence. To the north, PoPs remain 50-70%
near and north of the I-4 corridor, as this area seems to have not
been as affected by the outflow boundary and a healthier
cumulus field with embedded showers exists upstream.

Gusty winds to around 45-50 mph and lightning strikes will remain
the primary hazard today, as portions of the Space and Treasure
Coasts have already experienced. This threat is supported by some
drier air in the mid-levels and sfc-3km lapse rates around 7-8
C/km. Locally heavy downpours could produce minor flooding in low-
lying and poor drainage areas, with ample available moisture
(PWATs ~2"). Should scattered showers and storms develop this
afternoon, activity is expected to diminish into the evening
hours, with convection moving offshore by around 9-10 PM.
Tonight, overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s.

Monday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to drift
northward early this week, settling in across the local forecast
area by Tuesday. Ridging aloft will help to moderate shower and
storm chances to near normal levels. However, scattered convection
remains forecast in the afternoons, with PWATs up to 2".
Southwesterly flow looks to prevail Monday, before overall flow
becomes light on Tuesday. This will allow for the east coast sea
breeze to develop and become a focus for activity. While the sea
breeze collision is expected across the eastern portion of the
peninsula Monday, lighter flow Tuesday will likely lead to a more
centralized collision. PoPs 40-50% each day, with convection
diminishing through the evening hours. Gusty winds to around 50
mph will remain possible, with lingering dry air in the mid-levels
supporting DCAPE to around 800-900 J/kg. Locally heavy rainfall
will become an increasing concern, as steering flow weakens and
cells move slowly. Near-normal high temperatures in the lower 90s
will feel more like 100-105 degrees each day, with humid
conditions.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous)...The surface ridge axis
is forecast to remain draped across the Florida peninsula mid week
through the weekend, with a sea breeze collision forecast to
occur each afternoon. This will result in increasing rain chances
each afternoon into the evening hours. Whether the sea breeze
favors the eastern or western portion of the peninsula will remain
dependent on the exact location of the ridge axis, and it is
still a bit too far out to say with confidence where it will
reside. Maintained a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain and up to a
60 percent chance of storms due to increasing moisture across the
peninsula through the end of the work week, with PWATs once again
climbing above 2 inches. Outside of convection, warm and muggy
conditions will continue into the weekend, with near normal highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions this week, as the Atlantic
ridge axis drifts northward and settles in over the local waters.
South to southwest winds prevail, remaining around 10 kts or less.
However, will see the east coast sea breeze develop each day,
backing winds along the coast southeasterly and increasing them to
10-15 kts. The main threat through the week will be scattered
afternoon showers and storms, which may drift offshore into the
evening hours. Lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 35
kts, and heavy downpours will be possible. Chances around 40-60%,
highest during the evening and overnight periods. Seas 2-4 ft into
tonight diminishing to 1-2 ft by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Quiet weather anticipated through the morning and early afternoon
with light SSW breezes. Convective coverage looks lower than
recent afternoons, requiring TEMPOs only at MLB/FPR/VRB for now
where confidence is somewhat greater at this point. Sea breeze
should be pinned east of DAB but is forecast to make it onshore
south of Cape Canaveral, turning winds SE at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA in
the mid/late afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  90  75 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  20
MLB  91  75  89  75 /  50  20  40  30
VRB  92  72  90  72 /  50  30  40  20
LEE  90  75  91  75 /  40  20  50  20
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  92  76 /  40  20  50  30
FPR  91  72  90  72 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil