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000
FXUS62 KMLB 091405
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Current...Deep layer westerly flow along with marginally favorable
09/10Z sounding UA temperature profile and optimal sfc heating wl
lead to development of sct afternoon lightning storms over ECFL,
primarily along the I-95 corridor. Some drier air aloft may allow a
few storms to become strong, producing frequent lightning and strong
wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning will also be a concern. Late activity migrating over the
area ascd with the west coast breeze and boundary collisions will
keep potential for strong into early evening with activity
transitioning to the Atlantic waters into the evening. HAve
increased coverage slightly to include a sct mention for the whole
area with highest chcs centered alon the east coast.

from prev disc...

Today-Tonight...Axis of Atlantic high pressure ridge will remain
over south Florida.  Surface to 700 mb flow will be out of the west
and the gradient wind does not look strong enough to prohibit an
east coast sea breeze.  The GFS shows precipitable water close to
average around 1.7 inches, except a few tenths higher in the south.
The latest GOES precipitable water produce seems to support this,
but skies are rather clear with no showers over the surrounding
waters, so there is some subsidence occurring.

A mid-upper level low over the southeast Gulf of Mexico is not
moving much and with its proximity. MOS PoPs are quite low, 10%
inland and 20-30% along the coast. With plenty of daytime heating,
high temps will reach the lower-mid 90s and despite some drier air
aloft, the instability and moisture look sufficient for scattered
PoPs areawide. The highest chances will be along the coast,
especially in the south where we have PoPs 40-50%.

The presence of the drier mid level air will keep the gust
potential elevated, and a few strong storms should be capable of
producing gusts near 50 mph.

MOS PoPs continue low this evening, but will keep a mention for
showers/storms in case boundary interactions continue past sunset
like last evening.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR this morning then isolated to scattered storms are
expected to move west to east across the peninsula this afternoon and
early evening. The greatest chance should be at coastal terminals
where the east coast sea breeze will increase boundary interactions,
so have included vicinity thunder there. Probabilities still look
too low to include mention of vicinity thunder at interior terminals
though. Convection should push offshore a little after sunset with
conditions VFR late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight....High pressure ridge axis south of the waters will
produce a westerly wind 10 knots or less, except for a diurnal
increase tonight to 10-15 knots offshore.  Seas 1-2 feet near shore
and 2-3 feet well offshore.  Steering level flow out of the west
looks a little more pronounced today so mariners can expect isolated
to scattered storms moving offshore during the afternoon and evening.
There`s a chance for wind gusts 34 knots or greater with isolated
strong storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain nearly steady,
close to flood stage through late week.  A River Flood Warning
remains in effect there until a slow decline commences late this
weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, river levels are forecast
to remain within Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/TES