Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
410 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018


...High Coverage of Afternoon Storms with Locally Heavy Rainfall...

Current...The Florida peninsula remains in deep layer southerly flow
between the NE GOMEX low, which is filling as it lifts north toward
the Gulf Coast, and the DLM Atlantic ridge to our east. Local 88Ds
show widespread rain/embedded convection out out over the Atlantic,
similar to the last 2 mornings, with scattered showers redeveloping
over and offshore southern and SWFL. this activity has been weakening
/dissipating as it approached the southern Kissimmee River basin.
Otherwise, mainly broken mid-high clouds overhead with some overcast
areas and some mainly clear patches over the north interior as well.

Today-tonight...Looks to be close to a repeat of Tuesday afternoon.
Thinning high clouds should yield sufficient insolation for temps to
reach the L-M80S, with U80s over any areas away from the coast where
clouds/precip hold off longest. Combining with this once again will
be the local sea and lake breezes, weakly divergent H250 flow, and
residual weak vort spokes rotating around the mid level reflection
of the Gulf low. The result will once again be widespread mainly
afternoon convection, with a few late morning showers expected out
ahead of the main activity. Expect WCSB to be dominant once again,
with SSW to SW steering winds pushing activity into the eastern
peninsula, where it will interact with the ECSB by late afternoon.
Scattered evening showers and a few lingering storms near the coast
will weaken and dissipate toward midnight. Kept the previous POP
forecast of about 80 percent, given the very favorable diurnal

Thursday-Friday...A mid latitude mid level trough will extend into
the central Gulf Thu and shift eastward toward the eastern Gulf on
Friday. In the low levels SSW/SW flow Thu will become gradually
S/SSE into Friday with flow around surface high pressure near
Bermuda. Deep moisture will remain over the area with PWATs
generally 1.8-2.0 inches Thu and 1.7 to 2.0 inches Friday. This will
spell high rain chances in the likely range both days with POPs
around 70 percent. Gusty winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall
will accompany stronger storms. Southwest steering flow is progd
near 15 knots Thu and 10 knots Friday which will allow storms to
develop along sea breeze boundaries and move back toward the east
coast by late afternoon and evening each day. Highs will be in the
mid 80s Thu and range from the mid 80s coastal to upper 80s well
interior sections on Friday.

Sat-Sun...A weakening 500 mb trough will remain across the eastern
Gulf this weekend with low level flow from the south on Sat and
becoming SSE/SE on Sunday. Deep moisture will continue to support
numerous diurnal showers and scattered storms through the weekend
forming along inland moving sea breeze boundaries. High rain chances
are expected areawide Saturday and then higher over interior
sections into Sunday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is again
expected with stronger storms and may lead to some localized minor
flooding concerns in areas that have received heavy rain over the
past week. High temperatures will be mainly in the mid 80s.

Monday-Wednesday...GFS indicates fairly deep moisture will remain
across east central Florida into early next week with ECMWF
indicating some drying making it to the area as influence of the
Atlantic ridge builds toward the peninsula. Have kept POP trends
which indicate rain chances returning to the scattered range by
Tue/Wed of next week. Highs should be near climo levels ranging from
the mid 80s coastal to mid to upper 80s over the interior.


.AVIATION...VFR SCT-BKN120 BKN-OVC250 through around 13-14Z.
Thereafter, building diurnal CU field SCT025-035 with BKN CIGs
developing, along with an increasing coverage +SHRA/TS producing
MVFR-IFR VSBYs, especially from 18Z-22Z inland and 20-24Z closer
to the coastal aerodromes. LCL G30-40KT in any cell cores.


.MARINE...Today through Friday...SSE/SE flow will continue around
the Atlc ridge with winds to 10-15 knots near shore and up to 15
knots offshore. Seas generally 2-4 ft near shore and up to 4-5 ft
offshore. High coverage of showers and storms is expected.

Saturday-Sunday...Winds will remain SE to 10-15 knots around the
Atlantic ridge this weekend with scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected. Seas 2-4 ft nearshore to 4-5 ft offshore.


DAB  83  70  86  70 /  80  40  70  50
MCO  85  71  86  71 /  80  30  70  50
MLB  85  72  86  71 /  80  50  70  60
VRB  85  72  86  71 /  80  50  70  60
LEE  84  71  87  71 /  80  30  70  40
SFB  84  71  87  70 /  80  30  70  50
ORL  84  71  86  71 /  80  30  70  50
FPR  84  72  86  71 /  80  50  70  60




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