956
FXUS62 KMLB 081415
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast today.
  Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy
  rain will accompany the strongest storms.

- Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in
  the workweek as moisture builds over Florida.

- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
  persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
  visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The low level ridge axis was near Lake Okeechobee this morning
with light WSW flow in the H9-H7 layer north of the ridge axis.
Morning soundings indicate warmish mid level temps with ~8.5C at
H7 at XMR and -7C at H5 at JAX/XMR. Have lowered pops slightly for
the afternoon based on the latest guidance, mainly in the
scattered range from 30 percent along the Treasure Coast and
Coastal Brevard to 50 percent across interior with most of the
late afternoon storms developing from Osceola County NNE to
Volusia County. The July heat continues with highs in the lwr 90s
coast to mid 90s interior. Heat indices will remain elevated with
max readings from 100-106 in the afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Mean ridging extends from the W Atlantic over Florida this morning.
This ridge is essentially vertically stacked, with a surface
Bermuda high axis across to South-Central Florida. Overall, upper
heights are above normal across much of North America and the
Caribbean. The exceptions are a pair of easterly waves, one over
the W Gulf and another north of Hispaniola, and a weakness in the
mid- latitude westerlies across the Upper Midwest. Total moisture
values have dropped slightly below normal.

The weak wave approaching the Turks and Caicos is forecast to become
elongated and less defined as it approaches Florida late in the work
week. Regardless, somewhat richer tropospheric moisture should be
advected over the state. Meanwhile, the area of greatest positive
mid-level height anomalies is expected to push closer to Florida and
the Gulf. In the westerlies, the trough over the Midwest may be just
strong enough to force the surface ridge axis closer to South
Florida by the weekend.

Some members support the approach of a large TUTT (tropical upper
tropospheric trough) early next week. 07/12Z cluster analysis shows
meaningful support for this outcome, but there are significant
differences regarding whether this setup will advect deep moisture
over the state from the northeast.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today-Wednesday...

Over the next week, relative coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be lowest during the next two days. Nonetheless,
seasonable moisture, the inland-moving sea breeze, and the
position of the surface ridge support scattered (40-60%) storms in
the afternoon and early evening hours. Interior locations should
be favored for greatest coverage. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the
stronger storms. High temps should range close to normal with peak
heat indices from 100-106 deg F.

Thursday-Weekend...

A modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south
to southwest flow in the lower troposphere, will support 50-70%
chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon,
persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some
storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat
and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as
106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the
extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions
will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for
vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient
access to air conditioning.

Early Next Week...

Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics,
with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast.
This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state,
leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and
storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Surface high pressure will remain situated near or just south of the
local Atlantic for the next several days. With no significant
weather disturbances affecting the area, generally favorable boating
conditions are expected with somewhat enhanced winds along the
coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon. A few showers and
storms are forecast.

Winds S/SW 5-12 KT except SE at the coast in the afternoon. Seas 2-3
FT.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Light and variable winds becoming more WSW at 5 to 10 knots after
15Z. VCSH possible along the coast as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland this afternoon, with VCTS across the
interior after 20Z as the sea breeze collision occurs. Interior
terminals have greatest chance for impacts due to TSRA, so have
TEMPOs at MCO, ISM, and SFB from 22Z through 01Z. Some push back
towards the coast cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains
low at this time and therefore have maintained either VCSH or VCTS
at the coastal terminals. Activity diminishing after 02Z, with
light SSW winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  89  75 /  40  40  50  20
MCO  94  76  92  76 /  50  40  60  20
MLB  90  76  89  76 /  30  30  50  20
VRB  91  72  90  73 /  30  20  50  20
LEE  91  76  91  76 /  40  30  60  20
SFB  94  76  92  76 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  93  77  92  76 /  50  40  60  20
FPR  90  73  89  73 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Tollefsen