Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180837
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
437 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Continued abnormally high moisture combined with mean
southerly flow will support another afternoon of high rain
chances; however, overall dynamics don`t appear quite as favorable
as Thursday. The area remains to the east of a broad trough which
extends down into the Gulf of Mexico, however, its influence is
expected to wane over the next 24 hours as it lifts toward the
Great Lakes. Also, guidance indicates mean layer moisture will be
a few tenths lower today as the area becomes increasingly
sandwiched between ridges over the western Gulf and western
Atlantic. Precipitable water is progged to average between 1.6 and
1.8" today, which is still above normal for this time of year.

Painted much of the area with 60-70% chances centered on this
afternoon, though subtle veering (and weakening) in the low-level
flow should concentrate activity across the interior later today.
Will keep likely wording along the coast as outflow boundaries and
mid/upper level debris gets carried to the east and northeast.
Scattered PoPs continue this evening to account for waning activity
post-sunset, though the greatest coverage of showers should remain
over the Atlantic overnight. Cloud cover and afternoon convection
will keep temps within a degree or two of climatology: mid 80s with
the warmest temps across the interior. Overnight temps will bottom
out in the low 70s.

Weekend...The mid level trough across the southeast states Saturday
will lift northeast through the weekend allowing the mid level
ridge over the western Atlc to build over the area slightly. Low
level flow will strengthen some out of the southeast Saturday with
deep moisture continuing to support numerous showers and storms
that will focus inland in the afternoon. On Sunday...low level
southeast flow will continue. GFS shows some drying moving in from
the east in the mid levels (600-850mb) with deeper moisture
shifting westward, focused on the west side of the peninsula. Have
drawn 50 PoPs along the east coast to account for some drying but
kept 60 PoPs interior. Skies should remain quite cloudy as
considerable moisture will remain in the upper levels. Locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will still be a
concern into the weekend with the recent heavy rainfall across
portions of east central Florida this week. Highs will be in the
low to mid 80s.

Monday-Thursday...The low level Atlantic ridge axis will move
northward into mid week with a period of low level southeast flow
around the ridge expected. Moisture levels will continue to
support mainly diurnal showers and storms along the inland moving
east coast sea breeze with rain chances 50 to 60 percent each
day. Should see some morning sun into next week before afternoon
cloudiness increases with daily convection. Max temps mainly in
the mid 80s and min temps upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, which is
expected to be high again from mid to late afternoon. Convection
should develop initially (16Z-18Z) along the inland moving sea
breezes before concentrating across inland portions of the peninsula
this afternoon (18-23Z).

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Southerly flow at 10-15 knots will veer to the
southeast in the afternoon with seas 3-4 ft near shore and up to 5
feet well offshore. Numerous showers/scattered storms are expected
over the local Atlantic waters.

Sat-Tue...The Atlantic ridge will strengthen over the western
Atlantic with a sharpening axis north of the waters this weekend
and early next week. This will result in winds becoming southeast
increasing up to 15 knots offshore Sat and up to 20 knots over
the southern waters Sun-Tue. Seas generally in the 3-4 ft range
near shore and up to 6 ft offshore. Some drying from the east may
reduce coverage of showers and storms over the waters Sunday but
deep moisture will return early next week and once again produce
scattered to numerous showers and storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  83  70 /  70  40  70  40
MCO  85  71  85  72 /  70  40  70  40
MLB  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  70  40
VRB  83  72  83  72 /  70  50  70  40
LEE  85  71  86  71 /  70  40  70  40
SFB  85  71  85  70 /  70  40  70  40
ORL  85  71  85  70 /  70  40  70  40
FPR  83  72  83  72 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ulrich
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Ulrich


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