Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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311
FXUS62 KMLB 101842
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Gusty Showers/Storms Traversing East Central FL this Afternoon...

Current-Tonight...An early start to convection could lead to an
early end this evening as well with storms pressing quickly
southeastward. Of course with floating boundaries and deep moisture
we could still see some ISOLD activity thru mid evening. Before all
of that, though, the ECSB has developed along the immediate coast
from south Brevard south through Martin County. Combine that with
the strong outflow pressing quickly southward and we could see some
strong, pulse (ISOLD SVR) storms near the coast. Will probably use
pre-first period wording for afternoon zones issuance.

Main threats continue to be frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds in excess of 50 mph
in stronger cells. Precip/cloud debris will begin to thin from mid-
evening thru the late night. Overnight mins in the L/M70s.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Sat-Sat Night...The low level ridge will remain south of the state
on Sat with low level W/WNW flow in the morning becoming W/SW in the
afternoon. GFS indicates a low level trough near the Treasure coast
in the morning with deeper moisture (PWATs to 2.0 inches) near the
boundary and 1.8-1.9 inches across nrn sections. The area will also
be under the influence of a low level trough from Carolinas into GA
which will keep fairly deep moisture across the area. Convection
should develop along a progressive west coast breeze boundary into
the interior and also near a slow moving east coast sea breeze along
the Treasure coast. Will keep POPs above climo mainly in the 50-60
percent range. Highs will reach around 90 along the Treasure coast
to the lower 90s over the remainder of the area.

Sun-Mon...On Sunday, the surface ridge will remain across south FL
with deep moisture and low level SW flow north of the ridge axis.
This will spell high rain chances across the interior and from
Brevard northward along the coast in the likely range. On Monday,
the low level ridge begins to lift northward to Lake Okeechobee with
models indicating some drying in the H7-H5 layer. This should lower
rain chances some but still expected in the 40-50 percent range with
adequate moisture for afternoon convection with SW flow continuing
in the low levels. Highs mainly in the lower 90s.

Tue-Fri...The mid level ridge east of the state on Tuesday will
drift westward over central FL into late week. GFS indicates 596 DM
heights over the nrn peninsula by Thu evening which should suppress
convective chances into Thu/Fri. For Tuesday, low level W-SW flow is
still expected across the area with some drying aloft in the H7-H5
layer. Will keep rain chances in the 30-40 percent range with higher
coverage into mid/late afternoon and early evening with boundary
interactions. For Wed/Thu...The low level ridge will lift toward
central FL with a drier airmass and onshore flow limiting rain
chances for the Treasure coast. Slightly higher rain chances to
around 30 percent are forecast across the interior with the inland
moving east coast sea breeze each afternoon. With the lessening rain
chances into late week, expect some high to reach the mid 90s across
the interior and lower 90s for the coastal counties.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Around showers
thunderstorms, thru early evening, expect brief IFR/MVFR conditions
with variable winds and gusts to 30kts until 00z. Skies gradually
clearing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Early initiation of showers/storms
with heightened afternoon activity along the immediate coast. Cloud
to water lightning, gusty winds in excess of 34 kts, and torrential
downpours all in play. Showers/storms to wind down thru early
evening, but will maintain a small threat overnight, especially Gulf
Stream. Offshore wind component returning this evening following
atmospheric correction from convection-enhanced winds. Wind speeds
may approach 15 kts over the open Atlc for a bit this evening, then
wind down again ahead of daybreak. Seas around 2 ft, but locally
higher invof storms.

...Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Sat-Sun...Westerly flow to 10 knots Sat morning will become SW/S
into the afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and around 2 ft offshore.
Winds will become S/SSW on Sunday with seas up to 2 ft offshore. The
main hazard this weekend will be scattered showers/storms moving
from the mainland toward the intracoastal/near shore waters each
afternoon into the early evening.

Mon-Tue...S/SW winds into early next week around 10 knots around the
Atlantic ridge will keep seas in the 1-2 ft range near shore and
around 2 ft offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Previous...The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast
to remain close to flood stage into the weekend. A River Flood
Warning remains in effect there until a slow decline commences late
this weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, river levels are
forecast to remain within Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  90 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  76  93  75  92 /  10  60  30  70
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  40  70
VRB  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  40  50
LEE  76  92  76  91 /  10  50  30  70
SFB  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  30  70
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  30  70
FPR  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Sedlock, Johnson, Rodriguez, Smith



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