Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
444 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018


Today...Plume of deep moisture has returned and will remain over
the FL peninsula within deep southerly flow between upper low over
the western FL panhandle and Atlantic ridge to the east. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated storms ongoing early this
morning will lift northward and produce a wet morning for most
areas. Have drawn 70 PoP mainly for the morning then models
indicate rain chances decreasing this afternoon along the coast
with convection focusing on the interior and western peninsula.
Considerable cloudiness and precip will keep max temps to the
lower 80s.

Tonight...Lingering showers over the interior early this evening
will diminish then focus for showers should switch to the Atlc
waters. The persistent onshore flow should bring scattered
showers across the coast. Have drawn scattered (40-50 Percent)
PoPs along the coast which is lower than the GFS MOS. Interior
counties look mostly rain-free overnight.

Tue-Wed...The long fetch of deep tropical moisture continues its
path across ECFL from all the way down into the southern
Caribbean. The Atlantic ridge axis continues in place north of the
area with continued deep S/SE flow thru the period. Elevated
showery rain chances with isolated lightning chances will remain
in the forecast. Locally heavy rainfall on already saturated
ground with potential nuisance minor flooding will exist. The
highest threat for convection will be during the daytime and early
evening. Max highs generally in the L-M80s with min lows in the
U60s to L70s areawide.

Thu-Sun...The ridge axis does gradually sink south and east while
weakening slightly during the period. Unfortunately the deep plume
of moisture continues across the area into the weekend. Medium range
models show weak surface low development over the southern Gulf by
Thu with both GFS/ECMWF lifting this feature toward the Louisiana
coast by Sat. The ECMWF remains a bit deeper with this low pressure.
Aloft, troughing will deepen and take up residency across the Deep
South to include much of the GOMEX. This will strengthen the S/SWRLY
steering flow into the holiday weekend as well as send occasional
shortwave impulses over the region. This will signal increasing rain
chances with a threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding over
already saturated ground. It will remain humid with max temps in the
L-M80s with min temps continuing in the U60s to L70s.


High coverage of SHRA/TSRA today and will carry VCSH for most of
the TAF period with VFR CIGs outside of convection. Focused TEMPO
groups with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA along the coast thru 16Z then
to interior terminals in the afternoon. Breezy SE winds around 15
knots with gusts 20-22 knots along the coast.


Today/Tonight...Pressure gradient around western Atlc ridge will
support 15 knots of SE winds near the coast and 15 to 20 knots
over the open Atlc. This will produce poor boating conditions with
choppy 4 to 6 foot seas. Small craft should exercise caution. High
coverage of rain with isolated storms near the coast this morning
which should transition to the interior in the afternoon. Focus for
scattered showers and isolated storms should be over the Atlc
waters tonight, crossing portions of the coast.

Tue-Fri...The Atlantic ridge axis to the north is forecast to settle
slowly south and east; very close to the northern local waters by
late Wed/Thu as it weakens gradually. The flow remains deep S/SE
with some occasional wavering to the SSW. The potential is there for
wind speeds to increase to 15-19 kts early in the period over the
open Atlc, then some weakening of the pressure gradient. Otherwise,
outside of showers/isolated storms, wind speeds mainly AOB 15 kts.
Seas start 5-6 ft offshore and 4-5 ft near shore with subsiding seas
Tue night into the extended with seas AOB 4 ft over the open Atlc
Wed afternoon onward. An unsettled weather pattern from the
Caribbean into the Gulf will keep deep moisture over the area,
actually into the weekend, with elevated showery precip and
isolated/chance storms in the forecast. Winds/seas locally higher
invof heavier showers/storms.


DAB  80  71  80  69 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  82  71  84  70 /  70  20  50  30
MLB  81  73  81  71 /  70  50  40  30
VRB  80  73  82  70 /  70  50  40  30
LEE  83  71  85  70 /  70  20  60  20
SFB  81  70  83  70 /  70  20  50  30
ORL  81  70  83  70 /  70  20  50  30
FPR  80  72  82  70 /  70  50  40  30





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