Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 011949
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy this evening, and then a
rapid formation of low cloud will arrive after midnight. This will
result in warmer overnight temps in the upper 50s and 60s. With a
deep surge of low level moisture arriving by daybreak, rain chances
go up with most of the activity being shallow showers. Later in the
day, a few storms will be possible, but the general environment
resembles that which we saw Monday, with high temps having trouble
getting out of the low 70s. The rain chances decrease slightly for
Thursday night, and patchy fog could develop among the potentially
wet soils and slightly less surface wind compared to those of
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning as a cold front will
approach and move into/through the region, interacting with a moist
airmass in place across South Central Texas. This moist airmass and
some decent surface heating out ahead of the cold front will allow
for moderate instability by early afternoon. With a belt of strong
mid to upper level westerly winds over the region yielding decent
deep layer wind shear, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible on Friday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible, with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in place across
almost all of South-Central Texas for Friday and Friday night. The
cold front is expected to make it to the Coastal Plains just inland
from the Gulf Coast by Saturday morning before stalling out. Moist
southerly flow just above the shallow cooler air mass as well
continued southwesterly flow aloft will keep substantial rain chances
in the forecast through Sunday. High temperatures for Saturday will
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Total rainfall amounts over this
period will likely range from 1 to 2 inches, with heaviest amounts
across Central Texas and portions of the northern Hill Country
(Llano, Burnet, Williamson counties).

The front will eventually lift north through the region on Sunday
afternoon, and will allow for a bit warmer temps for Sunday with
showers and isolated thunderstorms likely on Sunday afternoon.

The warming trend continues into next week with high temperatures
back into the mid 80s by Tuesday and upper 80s by Wednesday.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through mid week, which will
keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  71  66  80  61 /   0  80  20  80  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  72  66  80  61 /   0  80  30  80  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     59  72  67  80  62 /   0  70  20  70  80
Burnet Muni Airport            59  69  64  77  55 /   0  70  10  70  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  84  67  82  64 /   0  -   10  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        60  71  65  79  57 /   0  80  20  70  80
Hondo Muni Airport             62  73  67  82  63 /  10  50  10  70  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  71  65  80  61 /   0  80  30  70  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  76  67  82  64 /   0  70  30  70  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       61  72  67  81  63 /  -   70  30  70  80
Stinson Muni Airport           62  74  68  82  64 /   0  70  20  70  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...BMW
Decision Support...Platt



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