National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

928
FXUS64 KEWX 171201 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
601 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFS/
A Pacific front came across the I-35 and KDRT few hours ago and
flying categories will be bouncing from MVFR to VFR for few more
hours before VFR conditions take over for the rest of today. By 15z,
all area terminals should be at VFR with northerly winds prevailing
through late this evening. It will be a bit breezy and gusty in the
wake of the frontal passage through about noon today, however,
lighter winds are expected for the afternoon into the evening period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Low clouds and areas of dense fog is prevailing across much of the
area ahead of the next cold front currently moving through Central
Texas. This front will help clear things out with no fog and clearing
skies expected after sunrise today. In addition to the fog, there
also is a chance for some patchy drizzle along the front but this
should not amount to much accumulations. With temperatures remaining
in the lower 40s across North Texas and north winds this afternoon,
will opt to land on the lower end of the guidance for high
temperatures today. Mostly clear skies should allow us to reach near
60 across the north with much warmer conditions in the southwest CWA
where highs will be in the middle 70s. Dewpoints will be dropping
into the 20s and 30s west of Highway 281 and this will equate to
afternoon humidity values in the 18-30 percent range. Breezy winds
this morning will weaken by afternoon when humidity values are lowest
which will help keep fire weather conditions just elevated.

Tonight, dry weather is expected with partly cloudy skies. Lows will
drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. The next storm system will
approach the area from the west on Monday with east/southeast winds
returning ahead of the system. Highs will range from the middle 50s
in the north to the upper 60s in the southwest.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
As this system moves closer to the area, rain chances will increase
after midnight Monday night. The rain chances will be primarily
driven by an increase in warm air advection/isentropic lift above the
frontal layer. The chances of rain will remain elevated through
Tuesday night before drier air briefly makes into the area. The GFS
does end things earlier than the ECMWF and will side with the wetter
ECMWF for now. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with the
rain chances and cloud cover with some moderation expected on
Wednesday. Rain chances will pick back up on Wednesday night and
Thursday as another trough axis creates lift associated with warm air
advection on top of the continued northerly flow at the surface.
Most of the activity will clear for Friday, but will hold onto some
20/30 PoPs across the east to account for continued chances of rain
where northerly flow at the surface is expected to continue. Another
trough axis arrives on Saturday and will keep rain chances in the
forecast. To summarize, after a nice reprieve to the wet and colder
start to February this past week, we return to a cool and wetter
period for the end of the month. Looking ahead it seems that the
period beyond the forecast period should see a return to dry weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  42  58  44  51 /   0   0  -   40  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  42  59  45  53 /   0   0  -   40  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  42  61  45  55 /   0   0  -   40  50
Burnet Muni Airport            60  39  53  41  49 /   0   0   0  40  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  44  64  49  64 /   0   0   0  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        60  40  55  42  49 /   0   0  -   40  60
Hondo Muni Airport             73  44  64  46  60 /   0   0   0  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  42  60  44  54 /   0   0  -   40  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  42  62  47  55 /  10   0  10  50  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  43  62  46  57 /   0   0   0  40  40
Stinson Muni Airport           70  44  63  47  58 /  -    0   0  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for Bastrop-Caldwell-
De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Wilson.

&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire