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000
FXUS64 KEWX 242317 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area airports through the
overnight hours. Clouds will develop and spread across South Central
Texas late tonight as they push into the area from the coastal
plains. MVFR cigs are expected to develop around 10Z to 16Z Friday
and affect the I-35 corridor sites. The NAM solution brings very low
cigs/vbsys around dawn while other models and guidance are more
optimistic for the time period. Therefore, will go with MVFR
conditions from 10Z to 16Z Friday. Patchy to isolated areas of fog
are anticipated to form across the coastal plains and southeast part
of the area. There is a slight chance for IFR vbsys to get closer to
the Austin area terminals around 12Z Friday. However, if this
does happen, it will be short-lived. VFR conditions are expected late
Friday morning through the evening. Light southeast to south winds
will be dominating the area through the forecast period.

For KDRT, VFR conditions will be prevail through the entire forecast
period with winds out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Some models
suggest MVFR cigs around dawn for few hours, however, area forecast
soundings do not reflect so and have decided to keep MVFR cigs out of
KDRT TAFS for this forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
The weather is mostly quiet across South-Central Texas at the present
hour. Temperatures are in the middle 80s to middle 90s with several
more hours of heating still in store for today. Skies are partly
cloudy with some afternoon cumulus with only a few showers so far in
the extreme southeastern CWA. Any additional shower or storm activity
this afternoon should remain confined there. Most or if not all
remaining activity should be over by 00z and will not mention any
precip in the forecast for the evening hours. Any activity in West
Texas should also remain out of the CWA and will not mention anything
in our western counties. Evening shift will monitor and update as
necessary. There could be some more patchy fog for the southeast
counties by morning, but not expecting it to reach as far north as
previous nights.

For tomorrow, isolated shower activity will be even less than today
as the atmosphere continues to dry out as a ridge begins to build
east. Highs will top out in the lower 90s to upper 90s or about 2-3
degrees higher than today. Lows tonight and Friday night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The long-term forecast is expected to remain rain free across South-
Central Texas as high pressure continues to build into the area from
the west. This same high will ensure that the area of disturbed
weather and potential Alberto will remain over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and away from the western Gulf. Highs through
Wednesday look to be in the upper 90s to 102 with the 100 degree
values in the western and southwestern CWA. The GFS then goes kind of
bonkers with temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with its raw model
output Thursday showing highs in the 100-109 range across much of
the CWA while the ECMWF still shows persistent temperatures in the
upper 90s to 102 range. In addition, low level flow is from the
south/southeast which also does not fit the normal conceptual model
for a record breaking heat wave. We normally would need a down-
sloping W/SW wind to promote compressional warming. For the official
forecast will show highs Wednesday and Thursday remaining in that
upper 90s to 102 range with lows throughout the long-term forecast in
the 70s for much of the region. Heat index values will remain below
105 over the next 7 days with afternoon dewpoints remaining below 70
degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  93  72  96  73 /  -   -    0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  93  71  95  71 /  10  -    0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  93  70  96  71 /  -   -    0  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  92  70  95  71 /   0  -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  98  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  92  71  95  72 /  -   10  -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  95  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  93  71  96  71 /  10  -    0  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  91  72  94  72 /  10  20  10  -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  94  72  97  73 /   0  -    0  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  95  72  99  73 /   0  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33