Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 201744
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1144 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports through most of this
period. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less from the northeast
this afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will develop at DRT
Wednesday morning and last through the end of the period. Wednesday
afternoon there will be a chance for rain showers across the area
with best chances beyond the 24 hour point and we have included
PROB30 groups at AUS and SAT for MVFR visibility in rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)...
An upper level impulse overhead will be east of our area by midday.
Lower to mid level ridge builds in to continue the ongoing clearing
trend with mostly sunny skies resulting in warmer temperatures for
all areas today. This will be short-lived as a compact upper level
shortwave currently off the northern Baja California coast moves
across Central Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Clouds return
tonight due to moisture advection. Upward forcing leads to slight
chances of showers Wednesday morning with stronger forcing from Noon
to Midnight. However, significant moisture return is not expected as
PWs peak just above an inch and have maintained the low chances for
showers. Showers end by late evening or early overnight as the
trough moves east of our area. Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch
are expected. Clouds and rain keep temperatures cooler again on
Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Thanksgiving looks mostly cloudy with below normal temperatures,
though warmer than Wednesday due to a few more peaks of sunshine. On
Friday, an upper level trough currently off the west coast near 140W
moves rapidly across the Southern Plains along with a Pacific front.
A brief period of upward forcing results in low chances of showers
during the morning hours. Weak elevated instability may generate an
isolated thunderstorm. In the wake of the Pacific frontal passage,
southwest to west winds result in warmer, above normal, temperatures
for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough moving across the
Central and Northern Plains forces a Canadian cold front across our
area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Lack of moisture
convergence along the front keeps POPs out of the forecast. A strong
surface pressure gradient along with mixing of stronger winds aloft
should make for a breezy day on Sunday. Temperatures drop back to
below normal on Sunday, then more so on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              39  59  45  63  51 /   0  40  20  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  35  58  45  64  50 /   0  40  20  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     37  56  45  63  50 /   0  40  20  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            36  57  43  61  49 /   0  30  10  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  57  45  63  51 /  -   10   0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  58  43  62  50 /   0  40  20  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             38  56  45  64  50 /   0  20  10  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        37  57  45  64  50 /   0  40  20  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  59  46  64  51 /   0  40  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       40  56  47  63  51 /   0  30  20  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           40  56  47  64  51 /   0  30  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Public Service/Data Collection...YB


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