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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190523
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.AVIATION...
All terminals should be VFR through late this Tuesday evening. The
low level flow has become southeasterly and moisture is returning to
the region. There is a slight chance for MVFR ceilings to develop
late tonight in the Austin and San Antonio areas, but we think only
scattered clouds are likely. MVFR ceilings will develop in the Austin
and San Antonio areas late in this TAF period Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Another crisp fall afternoon is ongoing across South-Central Texas at
the present time. Mostly clear skies continue with temperatures
remaining in the 70s for most locations. Southeast winds have
returned to the area but it is taking a bit of time to see an
increase in surface moisture but dewpoints back in the 60s are
expected by tomorrow. Before then, we should see another cool not,
although not as cool as the previous 2 nights. Lows should bottom out
in the 50s and lower 60s. For tomorrow, another nice day is expected
with highs reaching the 80s for many locations with those return of
southerly winds. Lows tomorrow night should respond with
temperatures several degrees warmer than tonight. With mostly dry
air continuing in the atmosphere, no rainfall is expected through
the short-term forecast.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
As an upper trough moves out of the Rockies and into the Central
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday it will drag a cold front towards
Texas. The 12z GFS continues to show this front stalling across North
Texas and the Red River by Thursday. The NAM keeps the front well to
the north of South Central Texas as well, although it does show some
progression into east Texas. The ECMWF does bring the front a bit
further south to about the Waco area, but keeps it north of our
counties as well. With the front remaining north of the area will
continue with the dry forecast for the middle part of the work week.
Temperatures will generally continue to run in the mid to upper 80s
for highs and low to mid 60s for lows. While this is above seasonal
averages it is still a nice taste of fall. Granted, with moisture
returning to the area the humidity may make it feel a bit warm and
unpleasant for mid to late October. As a mid-level shortwave
traverses the state late Thursday through Friday morning the GFS and
ECMWF continue to show some QPF across areas just north of the Hill
Country. With the bulk of the precipitation remaining to the north,
will continue with the dry forecast, but watch the forecast trends
over the next 24 hours. The GFS and EC do bring the complex of
showers and storms close to our northern border, while the GFS also
shows some QPF across the Rio Grande Plains (with the EC and Canadian
remaining dry) so at worst some slight PoPs may need to be added in
later forecast packages. The 12z models also backed off on most of
the scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, so other
than a sliver of PoPs remaining along and east of the HWY 77 corridor
the dry forecast will continue for most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  63  84  64  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  60  83  62  85 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  62  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            80  62  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  67  88  67  89 /  -    0   0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             84  63  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  62  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  63  86  64  87 /   0   0  -    0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  65  84  65  85 /   0   0  -    0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           85  66  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...76