Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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270
FXUS64 KEWX 212330
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Isolated shower activity has remained well away from AUS and will
continue to monitor, but will keep the mention of any precip out of
TAFAUS. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to prevail with light
east/southeast winds continuing throughout the period. No major
impacts are expected at the terminals through this valid TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The heat continues as the upper level ridge remains in place across
the region. WPC continues to maintain the analysis of a stationary
boundary across the region, but really not much difference in the air
masses on either side of the boundary as it continues to decay. A
couple showers have developed across Fort Worth`s CWA north of the
region this afternoon. Additional development may occur further south
into the Austin metro area and points east this afternoon and
evening, but PoPs only top out at 30 percent. Wednesday should be dry
and a degree or two warmer than today. Temperatures and heat indices
will likely warrant the issuance of another SPS.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
No major changes to the forecast as the upper ridge remains in place
across Texas through Friday, yielding very hot and dry conditions.
The ridge begins to shift eastward this weekend, which should lower
temperatures by a degree or two, but high temperatures will still be
around the century mark through Monday for most of the region.

Models diverge heading into Tuesday of next week. The ECMWF tries to
develop an upper level disturbance across the Gulf that would bring
cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover and rain chances to the
region while the GFS doesn`t show this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 103  76 103  76 /  20  -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 102  73 102  74 /  20  -   -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 101  73 101  73 /  10  -   -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73 100  73  99  73 /  20  -   -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 102  77 101  76 /  -    0  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74 101  73 102  75 /  20  -   -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 103  73 102  73 /  10  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74 102  73 101  73 /  10  -   -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 102  74 101  75 /  20  10  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  76 101  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 103  76 103  75 /  10  -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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