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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220416
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1016 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase rain chances along the Rio Grande this
evening as a 130 knot upper level jet streak noses out of Mexico.
Surface observations out of Del Rio indicate that enough top down
moistening has occurred for light rain overcome a 17kft layer of dry
air on its evening sounding and reach the ground. Expect isolated to
scattered showers to continue to spread towards the northeast
overnight as this jet translates farther across Central Texas. Have
also pulled the isolated thunder mention back to the Rio Grande where
the evening sounding showed steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km
and MRMS has shown an increase in vertically integrated ice. Also
lowered overnight low temperatures where backed surface winds will
result in some weak cold air advection, resulting in overnight lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/

AVIATION...
Ceilings have begun to lower this evening with the I-35 terminals
currently MVFR while DRT remains VFR. Cloud cover will continue to
lower through the night with IFR cigs expected at all terminals by
08z tonight (IFR could start as early as 03z at AUS and around 06z at
SAT/SSF). As the surface moistens ceilings will continue to lower
with LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility forecast between 10z and 16z
for the I-35 terminals. During this time drizzle and a few showers
will also be possible. Chances of showers continue through the day on
Friday with slow improvement to IFR (around 18z) and then MVFR by
mid afternoon at the I-35 terminals. Ceilings remain slightly higher
at DRT with IFR possible between 10z and 18z with improvement through
MVFR to VFR by early afternoon Friday. Winds through the period will
begin out of the northeast before becoming southeasterly Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  64  55  70  41 /  30  60  60  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  64  57  71  40 /  30  60  60  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  65  56  70  41 /  30  50  60  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            47  62  51  67  37 /  40  50  60  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  72  53  72  39 /  30  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  62  54  68  38 /  40  60  70  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             52  69  55  71  40 /  30  30  50  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  65  56  71  40 /  30  60  60  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   51  67  59  70  42 /  30  60  60  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  66  55  71  42 /  30  40  60  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           52  67  55  72  43 /  30  40  60  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman