Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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146 FXUS64 KSHV 241739 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for today to account for overall trends. That being said, not too much has changed with the inherited forecast for this afternoon. The SPC Day 1 outlook did change some with their morning update though. An Enhanced Risk was added to portions of McCurtain County and a sliver of Red River County for this afternoon. In addition, the Slight Risk was expanded a little to the south in east Texas, mainly impacting Cherokee County. Otherwise, the discussion below remains valid. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Active weather will continue through the next 18-24 hours before a lull returns across the Four State Region. This is due to troughing along a meandering frontal boundary with weak shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow aloft all acting to instigate rounds of convection across the Southern Great Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. High-resolution guidance/CAMs suggest the next round of convection developing ahead of the frontal boundary as it shifts southward across north-central Texas, with developing thunderstorms shifting further southeast of the I-20 corridor after sunset Friday and continuing overnight. Compressional heating (especially where storms don`t form) will also keep temperature maximums/minimums above average, reaching the upper 80s/low 90s and low-to-mid 70s, respectively. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Somewhat of a respite from active weather will arrive across the Four State Region going into next week. This is due to frontal passage expected by early next week coinciding with generally overrunning shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow transitioning to northwesterly flow as ridging builds in further north across Texas. This will not preclude parts of the area from just about daily chances of afternoon convection, and about 1 to 2 inches of rainfall according to the latest WPC QPF. Temperature maximums/minimums will respond in-kind with upper 80s/upper 60s lower 70s, respectively (and back to near normal for this time of the year). /16/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Still dealing with some MVFR or low VFR ceilings across our terminal airspace early this afternoon but those ceilings should continue scattering out as we move into the late afternoon hours. Continued the thinking of the 12z terminal forecast package of introducing VCTS across our terminals from west to east this evening with TEMPO groups for TSRA given the convection we are expecting later this evening/overnight. Otherwise, look for MVFR/IFR ceilings to return during the predawn hours with any IFR ceilings becoming MVFR by mid-morning on Saturday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 74 93 76 / 10 30 0 0 MLU 92 71 92 74 / 10 20 10 0 DEQ 86 67 87 71 / 10 40 10 10 TXK 90 71 91 73 / 10 40 10 10 ELD 90 69 90 71 / 20 40 10 0 TYR 91 72 92 75 / 10 30 0 0 GGG 92 71 92 74 / 10 30 0 0 LFK 94 73 95 75 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...05