Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281536
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1036 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TODAY...AS AN UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE SEA BREEZE/TUTT
INTERACTION BRINGS SHWRS/TSTMS INTO PARTS OF DEEP E TX/W CENTRAL
LA. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RUN VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S...
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE 100 DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS. ONLY A
FEW VERY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO MAX TEMPS...AND OVERALL THE
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE DAYTIME HRS. COMBINATION OF A SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE AND LINGERING EFFECTS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE LA
COAST SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY S OF I-20. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KSHV/KLFK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF MAY BRING
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KLFK AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...A REMNANT TROPICAL LOW IS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE TX COAST WITH A WEAK TROF AXIS
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA/MS. THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIMILAR RESULTS AS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SRN TIER
COUNTIES/PARISHES FROM DEEP E TX OVER INTO NRN LA...POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT LESS LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH
YOU GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LOW TO
MID 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS THIS TROF
BEGINS TO MOVE IN THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNING
NWD UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BEGIN LATER THIS
MORNING. OUR RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FED NWD AS ANOTHER LOW EMERGES OUT OVER THE NWRN GULF. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
OUR REGION WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS AS IT
STANDS NOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW AND WHERE IT TRACKS SO THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD
SHIFT A BIT.

RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AS
THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST. A DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SE
AND EXPANDS BACK WWD ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN REACHING BACK IN LOW TO MID 90S TERRITORY
AFTER A BRIEF HOLIDAY WEEKEND REPRIEVE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  75  93  74  89 /  20  20  40  30  50
MLU  95  72  93  73  88 /  20  20  30  30  60
DEQ  92  71  91  71  87 /  10  20  40  40  40
TXK  93  73  92  73  87 /  20  20  40  40  50
ELD  93  71  93  72  87 /  20  20  30  40  60
TYR  97  75  93  74  89 /  20  20  40  30  40
GGG  95  74  93  74  88 /  20  20  40  30  50
LFK  96  75  92  74  90 /  30  20  40  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






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