Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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527
FXUS64 KSHV 051628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08



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