Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE THIS WKEND. OUR 88D RADAR VAD IS INDICATING WE
A SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF 15-25KTS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE
WILL BRING SCTVBKN CU MIDDAY...LIFTING AND THINNING DURING
HEATING. SFC WINDS ESE BY DAYBREAK AND S/SE INTO THE AFTN 10KTS OR
LESS. CLIMB WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DEEPENING SE FLOW TO CU
BASES AND THEN VEERING TO SW AND NW BY 10KFT...ALL PRETTY MUCH
5-15KTS DURING HEATING...WITH A BIT MORE WIND ABV FL300 AND SOME
CIRRUS INCREASING ON THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX SE
INTO NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS HINTING
THAT IT MAY BACKDOOR A TAD FARTHER SW INTO E TX LATE BEFORE
STALLING ALL-TOGETHER. IR SATELLITE STILL DEPICTING A SCT ELEVATED CU
FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX INTO WCNTRL AND CNTRL LA AS OF
MID-EVENING...WITH THE NEW 00Z NAM SUGGESTING THAT THIS CU MAY
ACTUALLY LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BUILD BACK ENE INTO NW LA
LATE ALONG A WEAK 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE ZONE IN VC OF OUR SFC
BNDRY. FOR THIS REASON...DID INSERT PARTLY CLOUDY MENTION IN THE
SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS...AND ALSO RE-INTRODUCED IT
FOR SATURDAY AS WHAT/S LEFT OF OUR SFC FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS
A SERLY BNDRY LYR FLOW RETURNS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
AREAWIDE. DID ALSO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT BASED ON THE 02Z OBS/EXPECTED CU FIELD...BUT OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS MAY END UP BEING THE LAST OF THE COOL/COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR
SOME TIME...AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO QUICKLY MODIFY/BECOME MORE
HUMID WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MID-MONTH.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  79  59  79 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  57  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  81  60  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15/20


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