Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 250102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
802 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Minor changes made to evening forecast. Radar continues to show
isolated convection across Northeast and Central Louisiana.
Decided to add Pops in forecast through the remainder of the
evening to account for this. Also, removed Heat Advisory wording
from forecast as Heat Advisory was allowed to expire. Other than
that, the rest of the forecast looks to be on track. Will issue
another evening update around 10 PM. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge centered over Mississippi has kept most of
the CWA dry and hot today. A stream of moisture from a weak
frontal boundary can be seen on water vapor loops off the
Southeast U.S. coast. This moisture stream is being drawn westward
around the ridge and then northward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Diurnal convection has developed due to the combination of
the daily sea breeze and this elevated moisture plume. Convection
will likely be limited to locations southeast of a line from
Lufkin, to Natchitoches, to Monroe. Showers and thunderstorms
should dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Speaking of heat, abundant sunshine across the most of
the CWA allowed for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s
across the eastern half of the area. With high low-level humidity
levels still in place, most locations in the Heat Advisory saw
heat index values easily climb above 105 degrees F. A few
locations could briefly see heat indices above advisory criteria
on Thursday, especially from El Dorado southward to Monroe and
Columbia. However, the duration of this heat on Thursday is
expected to be very brief due to the expected precipitation, so
the current advisory will be allowed to expire at 00z.

Rain chances will increase dramatically Thursday and Friday as an
upper trough in the northern Gulf stalls near Houston, TX. The
best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms should be on
Friday as large scale ascent from the trough spreads across the
area. Rain chances gradually shift west with the trough, but
additional weak disturbances rotating around the south and west
sides of the upper ridge will keep chances for scattered
convection in the forecast through the weekend and into early next
week.

The potential still exists for tropical system to affect the
region during the middle of next week. This system is currently
still in the Caribbean and relatively unorganized. The medium
range models show no agreement and terrible run-to-run
consistency. However, the situation will continue to be monitored.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  92  74  91 /  20  50  20  60
MLU  77  93  74  92 /  20  50  20  50
DEQ  72  92  73  88 /  10  30  10  60
TXK  74  92  73  89 /  10  40  20  60
ELD  74  92  73  90 /  20  40  20  50
TYR  75  91  74  88 /  10  40  10  60
GGG  75  91  73  89 /  10  50  10  60
LFK  75  91  74  90 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20



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