Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 131555
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weak sfc ridging remains anchored from the OH Valley SW into
extreme Ern TX this morning, and will remain so through tonight
before easing E of the area Saturday. Meanwhile, the center of the
H850-700 ridge in place across the region will gradually begin to
shift E by afternoon, with weak moisture advection expected to
shift NE from E TX into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR. This low
level moisture gradient is evident in the 15Z sfc isodrosotherm
analysis, with the tight dewpoint gradient noted from the Red
River of N TX into extreme NE TX and along the TX/LA line. This
gradient should be more N-S this afternoon from extreme SW AR into
Wrn LA but weaken with time, as areas farther E will see a slight
increase in sfc dewpoints as well. This increase in dewpoints, as
well as compressional warming beneath the broad upper ridging extending
from S TX E along the Gulf Coast states, and the very warm/dry 4" soils
in place across the drought stricken area, will yield even hotter temps
than what was observed Thursday, with max temps topping out in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees. This is reflected well in the forecast,
but did send out an update to beef up cloud cover a bit for the Wrn half
of the area, to reflect partly cloudy conditions. Otherwise, the current
forecast remains on track.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  87  64  91  68 /   0   0   0   5
DEQ  88  65  90  63 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  89  67  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  87  63  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  90  69  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  90  68  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  90  69  91  68 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15



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