Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





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