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000
FXUS64 KSHV 121941
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS REGION. SEA
BREEZE...WHICH BRUSHED OUR EAST TX LAKES AREA YESTERDAY...
HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD. DRIER 12Z SOUNDING AT LCH...IN CONTRAST TO
YESTERDAY MORNING...REFLECTS THIS TREND WITH REDUCED SEA BREEZE.
THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTN AT THE EARLIEST...AS A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT BEGINS TO IMPINGE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AR. MOISTURE
WILL APPEAR MARGINAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AREAWIDE FRI AFTN...AND
A SHORTWAVE OVER TOP OF RIDGE ON BOTH NAM AND GFS APPEARS TO
WARRANT 30 PERCENT SAT AFTN OVER RED RIVER VALLEY REGION.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE UPPER RIDGE BECAME MORE ELONGATED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH IS RESULTING IN AFTN HIGHS REACHING
LOWER TO MID 90S...RATHER THAN UPPER 90S THAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED
IF RIDGE HAD BECOME TIGHTER AND CENTERED MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
ALSO ALLOWING FOR MORE POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF UPPER RIDGE./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW/SCT CU 4-5KFT WITH RAINFREE SKIES AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
HAVE DRIED OUT. SFC WINDS S/SW 8 TO 12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS
PM...DOWN TO AROUND 5KTS AFTER SUNSET. ALOFT...WE ARE SW 10-20KTS
THROUGH 7KFT THEN SLACK AND BACK TO ENE 10KTS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON UP TO ABOUT 20KFT WITH A MAX OF 30KTS FROM THE E. VERY LIMITED
MVFR 10-13Z FOR MAINLY LIGHT BR...BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF CIG AT KLFK.
OUTLOOK...IS FOR SCT CONVECTION ON A BACKDOOR STYLE COLD FRONT FROM
NE TO SW LATE THUR THROUGH FRI...WASHING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. /24/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
MLU  72  95  73  93  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
DEQ  71  95  72  94  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
TXK  74  94  74  93  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
ELD  72  94  72  93  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  74  96  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
LFK  74  96  74  95  72 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$