Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 091806
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1206 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR skc conditions areawide with nearest cloud cover over eastern
MO. W-nw winds this aftn near 10 kts, becmg lgt by 10/00z, and
then sw-w near 10 kts again by 18/18z. Low dewpoints will preclude
any fog development./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/

UPDATE...
Only minor changed were made to the ongoing forecast. Temperatures
are warming a bit faster than anticipated underneath plentiful
sunshine and light west-southwest winds. As such, have increased
daytime temperatures a few degrees especially across east TX where
temperatures are warming the quickest. Should therefore see near
average warmth across east TX whereas elsewhere, temperatures will
be a few degrees cooler than average. Subsequently tweaked the
dewpoint temperatures and relative humidity values. Otherwise,
forecast is largely on track with benign weather and a gradual
warm up in store for the next several days.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold air has settled across the Four State Region as surface high
pressure ridge extended from Central Texas Northeast across the
area and into the Tennessee Valley. The light winds and mostly
clear skies helped produce a cold night with low temperatures in
the upper teens to the middle twenties. Aloft a highly amplified
upper trough of low pressure dropped from Eastern Canada across
the Great Lakes Region and the Mississippi Delta and into the
Southwest Gulf of Mexico, while a large upper ridge of high
pressure was centered over California and Nevada and reached
across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. In the Northwest
flow between the departed upper trough and ridge out West
a disturbance will help nudge a dry surface cold front/trough
across the forecast area today. Could see a few clouds with this
boundary but expecting mostly sunny skies to prevail. Highs will
climb into the fifties with winds picking up with frontal
passage. Surface high pressure will return over the forecast area
overnight and by Sunday shift far enough to the South to return
more Southerly winds which will allow a warm up with highs from
the upper fifties across the Delta of Louisiana to the middle
sixties over parts of East Texas. By Monday with broad upper level
troughing over the Eastern U.S. daytime highs will climb into the
upper sixties to near seventy with Southwest winds becoming more
Westerly followed by a return to Northwest with the passage of
another dry cold front late Monday. For the rest of the work week
the pattern will be cool due the upper trough to the East and
ridge of high pressure to the West providing disturbances through
the Northwest flow aloft, nudging a cold fronts through on
Thursday. Temperatures highs in the fifties and sixties with
overnight lows in the thirties and forties. During the weekend
the upper pattern will be changing with a nearly zonal flow over
the area as the upper ridge out West weakens and retrogrades
with short wave troughs of low pressure carve out a more
amplified upper trough across the Western and Southwest sections
of the country. With a Southwest flow out ahead of the upper
trough, more moisture along with disturbances crossing the
region could see returning showers for Saturday into Sunday. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  29  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  56  25  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  28  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  55  27  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  58  30  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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