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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241952
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Computer models struggled with how yesterday`s precipitation event
would evolve as it could not get a handle on the cold pool/outflow
boundary that pushed southeast across the region earlier this
morning, and aided in the development of a line of showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front although a bit hard to detect as it is
rather diffused, has pushed south of the CWA, while an elevated 850
mb front was located around the Interstate-30 corridor thus lagging
behind. The atmosphere has been worked over due to yesterday`s/early
this morning`s convection which is validated by only very light
echoes near the elevated front, in addition to the commencement of
infiltrated drier air /dewpoints dropped into the upper 50s to lower
to middle 60s/ noted across southeast OK and portions of northeast
TX and southwest AR. The sfc front on the other hand has impinged on
the best moisture axis across southern LA /dewpoints in the 70s/ and
has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms that has lifted
north to across central LA and deep east TX. The aforementioned
precip activity was not moving that quickly given weak mean flow, so
moderate rainfall may occur.

Tonight, although the sfc front will be well south of the FA, the
850 mb front will have just moved south of the Interstate-20
corridor thus potentially continuing rain chances with chance POPs
across the southern zones and slight chance POPs along the
Interstate-20 corridor seems warranted. Furthermore, can not rule
out convection across southern LA maintaining a northward movement
thus affecting the southern zones. As previously mentioned, drier
air has began to impinge on the northern zones late this afternoon,
and will continue to spread southward tonight. This will lead to
overnight temps dipping into the lower to middle 60s across
southeast OK, extreme northeast TX and portions of southwest AR,
versus upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere, given the proximity of the
elevated front which will maintain moist lower levels.

Tomorrow, with the 850 mb front becoming quasi-stationary and
oriented from northwest to southeast from a near Mineola, TX to a
near Center, TX to a Jena, LA line, chances for precip will likely
not be out of the question along and south of the elevated front.
With anticipated thinning clouds across the northern zones, this
could set up a slight temp gradient of upper 80s across the northern
zones where it will also be rain-free versus lower 80s due to the
anticipated cloud cover and rainfall. Model solutions exhibited this
mesoscale setup more or less staying put through Monday /with
perhaps a bit of sloshing occurring with the 850 mb front/ hence
deep east TX and central LA will have the best shot of receiving
precip. By Tuesday, the front will return as a warm front which is
anticipated to lift north to aoa the Interstate-20 corridor. Sfc
winds will be of a south-southeasterly flow and low level moisture
will gradually increase. Daytime destabilization could lead to
precip mainly along and south of the Interstate-20 corridor.
Looking aloft, an UA ridge axis across the Plains will commence to
break down by mid-week courtesy of an UA shortwave propagating
east across the northern Plains. This will result in flow aloft
backing from the northwest to the southwest. An UA ridge across
the southeast U.S. will allow for the transport of rich Gulf
moisture across the region. With computer models hinting at a mid-
level shear axis across the region, this will lead to renewed
chances for rainfall during each aftn of Wednesday-Friday,
particularly across the southeastern 1/3rd of the CWA. Lack of
widespread rainfall will allow for temps to warm back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s throughout next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  86  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  68  86  65  88 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  64  87  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  66  86  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  64  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  69  85  68  87 /  30  20  20  20
GGG  69  86  67  88 /  30  20  10  20
LFK  73  85  70  88 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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