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392
FXUS64 KSHV 250229
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
929 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isold diurnal convection that developed across some areas of our
region has long since diminished, leaving the vast majority of the
region under clear skies. With the diurnal convection done for the
night and convection associated with an approaching cold front
still well w of Fort Worth, have removed PoPs from the overnight
fcst. Otherwise, lower 70s for most areas seems to be reasonable,
so will not be making any changes to temps attm. Updated products
will be out shortly. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast
period. Could see MVFR ceilings and visibilities across
MLU/ELD/TYR/LFK/GGG terminals around daybreak. Conditions forecast
to improve to VFR by mid-morning with scattered cu field around
7kft expected in the afternoon. Otherwise, light winds tonight to
become southeast at 5 to 8 knots on Sunday. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge axis is currently along and just east of the
Mississippi River, while a large upper trough is centered over
Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming. The southerly flow between
these two features is drawing moisture northward across the Plains
and aiding in the development of convection along a surface cold
front. Closer to our area, a weak mid-level low is drifting
west near the Alabama/Georgia/Florida border. Scattered convection
has developed through Southeast and North Central Texas on the
eastern periphery of the moisture plume, but most of this activity
should stay west of the CWA. Isolated diurnal convection is
possible areawide this afternoon, but any showers and
thunderstorms should quickly dissipate around sunset.

The Rockies trough will split with the northern stream moving
northeastward towards Canada, and the southern stream low becoming
cutoff over Northwest Mexico. The Gulf trough will continue to
slowly move west, but is only expected to reach near the western
tip of the Florida Panhandle before dropping southward back into
the Gulf of Mexico. The surface cold front will slowly move
toward the area and showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday
afternoon and continue into Monday. The best rain chances should
be overnight Sunday/early Monday. Large scale ascent will be far
to the north, and the Mexico low should keep the best deep layer
moisture farther west, so chances for widespread wetting rains
do not appear promising. Storm total rainfall amounts may
struggle to be a half inch.

Much drier and cooler air will move in behind the front by early
Tuesday. No additional rain chances are expected through the
remainder of the forecast package. The big story will be the
airmass change. Dry air, clear skies, and light northerly winds
will allow low temperatures to fall below 60 degrees areawide
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Some locations in the terrain of
Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas may even fall into the
upper 40s. A persistence forecast will be the rule beyond Tuesday
as temperatures generally hold steady or warm a degree or two each
day as an upper ridge moves over the region.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  70  86 /  10  20  30  30
MLU  72  94  71  86 /  10  10  20  30
DEQ  69  90  66  78 /  10  20  40  30
TXK  71  92  68  82 /  10  20  40  30
ELD  71  92  69  83 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  72  91  69  83 /  10  30  40  30
GGG  72  92  70  84 /  10  30  40  30
LFK  73  91  71  87 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12