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000
FXUS64 KSHV 041225
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
625 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE E TX TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EWRD ACROSS W CNTRL TX. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...MAY
AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE LOWER
CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OVER E TX BY LATE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N/NE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN BECOME MORE VRBL AFTER
05/00Z. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COVERED MUCH
OF SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST SKIRTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING EAST LATER IN THE DAY
REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE LATE EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
MID DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ON THE HEELS
OF THIS FIRST TROUGH THE NEXT ONE DROPPING LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND INCREASING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLE SLEET...ALONG AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG TO
LINDEN TEXAS AND TAYLOR AND MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND INTO AROUND SUNRISE WHEN PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
RAIN WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND WARMING PERIOD
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTO MEXICO WITH A SURFACE LOW OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE
THAT TILTS SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL TEND TO SLOW WEATHER
FROM MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOWS WILL START TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  27  53  34  56 /  20  10  20  40  10
MLU  36  26  52  34  53 /  20  10  20  50  30
DEQ  42  24  47  31  53 /   0  10  20  50  10
TXK  41  25  49  33  54 /  10  10  20  40  10
ELD  39  24  52  33  53 /  10  10  20  40  20
TYR  42  29  53  34  57 /  20  10  20  20  10
GGG  42  28  53  34  57 /  20  10  20  20  10
LFK  38  30  56  36  59 /  40  10  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

19