Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 272045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE THICK MORNING CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BEEN SLOWER TO THIN THAN
EXPECTED AND HAS CERTAINLY HAD AN IMPACT ON MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF OR SO WITH LOW TO MID 80S SO
FAR...AND NO COMPLAINTS AS OF THIS WRITING. THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE REESTABLISHED AS EXPECTED AND MOST LOCALES WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN
THE VERY COMFORTABLE 30 PERCENT RANGE.

THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS IT FOLLOWS IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MORE CIRRUS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OVERHEAD IN THE
COMING DAYS. BY LATE FRIDAY EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN FOR A SMALL
AREA MAYBE THE I-30 CORRIDOR EARLY SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...BUT THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ALL THE WHILE. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING IN FOR NOW WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THERE ASIDE FROM
SPLITTING 12 HOUR POP/WX GRIDS TO BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY MORNING
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN ESTABISH AND FEED THE NEEDED MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...THE PLAN REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY PINCHED OFF AND WILL BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE FORMING LOW IS VERY
DRY...BUT IS ALREADY PULLING SOME CIRRUS NORTH TOWARD AL/FL COASTS
AND WILL ONLY MOISTEN FURTHER WITH RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
RICH EASTERLIES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LOW APPEARS TO
EXPAND AND WEAKEN...BUT AS LONG AS IT ENDS UP CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MODELED...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY EVEN BY MONDAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. CHANCE
POPS FILTER INTO MIDWEEK FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER LACK OF
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AMONGST THE LOWER HEIGHTS...CLOUDS AND HOPEFULLY
RAIN. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  94  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  62  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  62  91  66  91 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  64  91  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  60  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  68  93  72  92 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  67  93  70  93 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  64  94  68  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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