Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220601
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS. ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TERMINAL SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH WINDS OF 8-13 KNOTS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WHERE A MORE TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 8-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER TO THE WEST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





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