Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220501
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 22/06z TAFs, a couple of isolated instances of patchy fog
and MVFR visibilities are possible across the area before
sunrise, but VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at
all TAF sites for the duration of the period. More daytime cu is
likely on Saturday, and isolated convection is possible during
peak daytime heating. Coverage is expected to be too spotty to
mention in the TAFs at this time frame.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1013 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Much of the isolated convection has finally diminished as of mid-
evening, but a considerable amount of convective debris remains
over Nrn/Cntrl/NE LA as well as much of Cntrl/Srn MS from the
earlier convection. Meanwhile, the evening water vapor imagery
depicts a weak but broad upper low over the NE Gulf, which should
continue to slowly retrograde W along the Gulf Coast into Srn LA
through Saturday. Still can/t rule out very isolated convection
redeveloping late tonight mainly over NE LA which may migrate W
into the SE sections of Ncntrl LA NW of the Gulf Coast low. Have
maintained slight chance pops for these areas overnight and
dropped mention of pops elsewhere as the air mass continues to
stabilize.

Given the presence of the considerable AC/cirrus shield spreading
W, this should help to keep min temps up overnight, mainly over N
LA. Otherwise, temps elsewhere are nearly identical to what was
observed 24 hours ago, with temps not falling much more but into
the mid/upper 70s. Given still some uncertainty in regards to
cloud cover/convection coverage which may affect portions of SW
AR/N LA Saturday NNW of the Gulf Coast low, will not be making any
changes to the current Heat Advisory, although given the very warm
start expected to start the morning Saturday, would not be
surprised if the Advisory is expanded to encompass more of these
areas Saturday as criteria may be reached again even before
the onset of convection.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  95  77  93 /  10  30  20  40
MLU  77  94  77  91 /  10  30  20  40
DEQ  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77  95  76  91 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  76  94  75  90 /  10  20  20  40
TYR  77  95  76  93 /   0  10  10  40
GGG  77  95  77  93 /   0  20  20  40
LFK  76  94  75  93 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001-002-010-017.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09/15



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