Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 251106
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS PARTS
OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AT THE SAME TIME A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
INTO TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING INTO A WAVE AND
MOVE QUICKLY EAST. ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A DRY LINE OVER WEST
AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT SLOW ITS
EASTERN MOVEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RETURNING WARM FRONT TODAY ENDING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN RE-INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON SUNDAY
AND CLOSES OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE SURFACE THE WESTERN END OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT BACK DOORED THROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
INTO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAN HANDLE
OF TEXAS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE
AND SWINGS EAST WITH RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNING A
DRY PATTERN TO THE AREA FOR THE LAST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INTO PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70/S AND DEW POINTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO.
PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT REACHED
WEST INTO WEST TEXAS. MAY HAVE TO ADD MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY
AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS SOME DEVELOPMENT IS COMING
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME OF THE TORNADO WATCH 105 COUNTIES AND
PARISHES FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ONLY 6 NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES REMAIN
IN THE TORNADO WATCH...WHICH INCLUDED UNION...LINCOLN...
OUACHITA...JACKSON...CALDWELL AND WINN.

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO ARCADIA AND ZWOLLE LOUISIANA AND TO HEMPHILL TEXAS
LINE WITH THE OUTLFOW BOUNDARY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND ARCHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM KANSAS
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ON TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS SHIFTS EAST...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST WITH A TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WARM
FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WILL
END THE RAIN ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND TO RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MUCH
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. /06/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 106 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTEND WITH
TO START THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CONVECTION STILL ONGOING AT ELD/MLU.
WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED...PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEGRADATION IN VSBYS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
WITH HEIGHT AS SFC SPEEDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW ON SATURDAY FROM
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS...THEN DROPPING OFF TO
BELOW 10 KTS BY 26/00Z. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 105
DUE STORMS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  64  89  62 /  20   0  10  30
MLU  87  66  87  61 /  30  10  10  20
DEQ  86  55  85  57 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  87  59  86  58 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  85  60  85  57 /  20   0  10  20
TYR  89  63  88  63 /  20   0  10  30
GGG  88  63  88  63 /  20   0  10  30
LFK  90  67  89  67 /  40  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

06



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.