Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 230037
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
737 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, the last of the ra is edging East, but some
DZ/BR/FG will all become likely with the setting of the sun.
Overnight winds will be light and the ground saturation will wick
into the air and keep all night. Slow improvement to occur with
another fropa by this time tomorrow evening. Look for FG/BR/cigs
to slowly lift by lunch and then shwrs/tstms to become likely as
the cold front moves over the area. Climb winds are light and
flight levels have a good W/SW jet 50-100KT from FL220-FL350. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The widespread shower activity that enveloped the majority of the
ARKLATEX earlier this morning courtesy of an embedded impulse, has
shifted eastward late this aftn, and noted along and east of a
Lufkin, TX to Shreveport, LA to a Magnolia, AR line. In the past 12
hours, rainfall totals ranged from near 0.10-0.20 inches across
northeast TX and southeast OK, to aoa 3.00 inches across deep east
TX, which is indicative of where the heaviest rainfall has fallen.
Fortunately, these rainfall totals do not pose a threat for extreme
flash flooding conditions, but localized ponding of water along low-
lying and poor drainage areas could occur /especially for locales
that within the heaviest rainfall/ and motorists are urged to use
caution. Phone calls made to emergency personnel across deep east TX
further validated minor street flooding across low-lying areas so
aside for mentioning locally heavy rainfall in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, no additional flood products will be issued attm.  20Z VIS
Satellite Imagery exhibited clearing skies across southeast OK,
extreme northeast TX and southwest AR, with BKN-OVC skies elsewhere.
This has resulted in a temp gradient with middle to upper 70s noted
across the rain-free and cloud-free areas, versus temps struggling
to reach the 70 degree mark within the extensive cloud cover areas.

Short-term solutions such as the HRRR and the NAM appear to have a
decent handle on the ongoing shower activity, and thus it is progged
to continue to shift east, exiting the FA late this evening /with
perhaps lingering showers across the far eastern zones/. This lull
in precip will be short-lived as a broad UA low digs south-southeast
across the Plains, thus promoting the sharpening of southwest flow
aloft. Within this flow aloft, will be embedded impulses/500 mb 90+
kt jet max progressing within the base of the trough, that will move
across the Four-State Region during the day tomorrow. In addition, a
cold front will impinge on the region from northwest to southeast.
As a result, we will not only have a mesoscale focus
/frontogenetical forcing provided by the cold front/ but will
also have increasing UL support coupled with an already moist
atmosphere /PWATS being maintained aoa 1.30 inches/. Precip will
therefore make a return to the region, but it will be a quick shot
as rain chances comes to an end from west to east by late
tomorrow night. Could see a few lingering showers near/move across
portions of southwest AR late tomorrow night-Wednesday morning,
on the backside of the departing UA low, with slightly breezy
northwest sfc winds ensuing in its wake during Wednesday aftn
/10-15 mph/. Although the CAA ushered in by the cold front will
not be overly strong, it will still keep temps below seasonal
norms on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, if skies do indeed clear
out which is being exhibited by model solutions, and sfc ridging
settles in resulting in light and variable sfc winds, temps will
be capable of falling into the middle to upper 40s across the
northern zones to lower to middle 50s elsewhere.

Temps will quickly rebound into the 80s /and perhaps a few 90s/ by
Friday with the quick passage of an UA ridge. Thereafter, dry near
zonal flow aloft will take place, until the weekend when an UA
trough across the Southern Rockies is carved out, hence encouraging
southwest flow aloft. The atmosphere will have time to moisten and
recover by the time several embedded disturbances and a nearby sfc
trough aids in the return of precip Saturday night, and the
impingement of a cold front /which is shown to become quasi-
stationary along/south of the Interstate 20 corridor/ on Sunday will
keep the wx unsettled. As such, should see temps cool off a bit by
early next week, given the return of cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  75  54  76 /  40  50  40  10
MLU  60  78  57  76 /  60  30  60  10
DEQ  55  73  49  74 /  40  60  20  10
TXK  57  73  52  75 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  56  74  52  74 /  30  50  40  10
TYR  60  73  54  78 /  40  60  20  10
GGG  59  74  54  77 /  40  60  30  10
LFK  63  79  58  81 /  30  60  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29


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