Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19



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