Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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643
FXUS64 KSHV 271617
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1117 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight/early morning convection across srn AR/n LA continues to
diminish. However, diurnal convection has shown some increase over
the last hour or so, and this should be enhanced by the upper
level low over ern LA today. Have made some minor adjustments to
cloud cover and PoPs to better represent current conditions/trends,
but these should have little impact in the text products overall.
Temps look to be on track, especially when cloud cover/convective
coverage are taken into account, so will not be making any changes
there. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

AVIATION...
While VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period
over SE OK/extreme SW AR/E TX/Wrn LA...areas of IFR/low MVFR cigs
with areas of -SHRA have developed this morning over Ncntrl/NE
LA/SE AR...near the center of a weak upper low that is drifting N
across Ern LA. These -SHRA will persist through much of the
morning before weakening...resulting in only slow improvement to
cigs to the ELD/MLU terminals. Cigs should return to VFR by early
afternoon over these areas...with a weak stratocu field developing
this morning farther W over E TX/Wrn LA becoming a sct cu field by
midday. Should start to see an increase in sct convection by early
to mid-afternoon farther W across the region...possibly affecting
the remaining terminals after 20Z. Brief MVFR cigs/reduced
vsbys/locally gusty winds will be possible in/near the
convection...gradually diminishing during the evening with
elevated cigs lingering over the region. Additional convective
redevelopment will be possible after 06Z mainly along/N of the
I-20 corridor...possibly affecting all but the LFK terminal. Cigs
should lower to MVFR late in the period in/near the convection...with
these conditions expected to linger through much of Thursday. SSW
winds 5-8kts today will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Overall, very little change from the previous forecast package. A
weak upper low will drift west across the CWA today. This low,
combined with a weak surface trough, should allow for the
development of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
during the day today. Weak northwesterly flow aloft will bring a
series of upper troughs across the region Thursday through
Saturday. The best rain chances during that time period will
generally be across Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. Rain chances
will diminish early next week as an upper ridge moves over the mid
Mississippi River Valley. Convection will continue to be primarily
diurnally driven, but the upper troughs could keep allow for
isolated convection to persist into the overnight hours.

Daytime high temperatures will depend on any affects from cloud
cover and rainfall. A gradual warming trend is expected beginning
late this weekend and heading into next week as the upper ridge
builds over the region and rain chances decrease.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  91  76 /  40  30  50  20
MLU  88  75  88  73 /  50  30  50  20
DEQ  95  74  91  72 /  50  30  50  20
TXK  92  74  90  74 /  40  30  50  20
ELD  88  74  88  73 /  50  30  50  20
TYR  94  75  94  75 /  20  20  40  20
GGG  93  75  93  75 /  20  20  40  20
LFK  90  75  93  75 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12



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