Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231221
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
Warm frontal boundary has moved north to btwn I-20 and AR/LA state
line, remaining further south on TX side of area. Patchy drizzle
and fog near boundary, especially across ne TX. Showers, and a few
embedded tstms, north of boundary, will affect the ktxk terminal
until around 23/15z. Thereafter, isold to sct convection to
redevelop in warm sector this aftn, but limited with only a few
breaks in ovc sky cover for daytime htg. Cigs becmg mvfr, and
possible low vfr at times along I-20 terminals. Cloud cover may
even become scattered at times, especially further south at klfk
terminal. Cigs to begin lowering after around 24/03z with patchy
drizzle and fog along with ifr to low mvfr cigs. Stg convection
with main upper low to approach area late Fri night, but should
not affect any areal terminals until just after the 24/12z fcst
expiration time. Winds vrbl with frontal position but generally
vary from lgt ne to southerly 5 to 10 kts./07/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
E$rly this morning the warm front has moved to near a Monroe,
Ruston, Natchitoches, and Many Louisiana and Hemphill and Jasper
Texas line. A few showers were occurring near the boundary as
well as the typical fog and low ceilings. Well to the North a
large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms covered
Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas near
an 850 mb theta-e axis. Added lift was associated with
disturbances aloft moving in the Southwest flow aloft between the
persistant upper trough of low pressure over the Western States
and the upper ridge over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, Florida and
the Southeast Atlantic Coast off Georgia and Florida. Water vapor
continued to show Pacific moisture streaming within the Southwest
flow aloft. With the front shifting North into Northeast Texas
and Southwest Arkansas by late this afternoon will keep the higher
chance for rain over to the North of the warm front with smaller
to the Southern sections of the forecast area. Due to rainfall
amounts of one to three inches possible along with additional rain
once the boundary moves out of the region only to return during
the first part of the weekend, have extended the Flash flood Watch
for the area to the North of a Strong Arkansas to Homer, Sibley,
and Shreveport Louisiana and Waskom, Longview, and Tyler Texas
line. Have dropped the Flash Flood Watch to the South of the above
line since rainfall amounts will be much less for today and
overnight. Will most likely place the more Southern zones back in
a Flash Flood Watch during the day Saturday as a cold front
advances Southeast across the Four State Region during the day
Saturday and overnight. The upper level trough of low pressure
will be shifting East across the Rockies and the Southern Plains
driving a cold front our way. With the approach and arrival of the
cold front on Saturday will bump the chance for showers and
thunderstorms up with the inclusion of heavy rain mentioned along
with severe wording with strong and damaging winds, large hail,
and a few tornadoes possibly. Storms will also produce deadly
lightning. Rain chances will taper off in wake of the cold front
during Saturday night and Sunday but by late afternoon the Western
end of the boundary will become nearly stationary and lift back
North. This will keep the more Southern zones across East and Deep
East Texas and North Louisiana with mention of showers and
thunderstorms. Models similar in keeping Monday and Monday night
dry in wake of passage of an upper disturbances providing the area
with brief ridging aloft and surface high pressure across the
area. This will be short lived however as the warm front off the
Gulf Coast will lift back to the Northeast by late Tuesday
returning our rain chances for Tuesday as the next upper trough of
low pressure shifts toward the Four Corners and Desert Southwest
returning the Southwest Flow aloft with a series of disturbances
rounding the base and moving our way. In wake of the mid week warm
front our next cold front arrives on Thursday. Another dry period
will follow as rain tapers off after passage of the front late
Thursday with dry conditions remaining into the early weekend.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  65  76  48 /  40  30  90  80
MLU  79  66  78  53 /  50  40  50  80
DEQ  62  57  69  37 / 100  50 100  20
TXK  67  61  73  42 / 100  30  90  40
ELD  73  63  75  46 /  80  40  90  80
TYR  69  63  72  45 /  90  30  90  30
GGG  72  63  74  46 /  70  30  90  30
LFK  78  66  77  50 /  30  30  90  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$



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