Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHWRS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX/W
CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING. WHILE THEY ARE MOVING SWD...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLD REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE AREAS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT IS WELL S AND W OF THE AREA
ATTM. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER PARTS OF E TX...AND HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO MATCH WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. FOR
TEMPS...AT 10 AM...MUCH OF NE TX/SW AR/SE OK WERE STILL IN THE
UPPER 70S...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP
THERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SHIPPED SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. NLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP ANY CONVECTION
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BIG RAIN EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR SW TX. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER KS/OK AS THE TROUGH THEN DIVES SEWD INTO
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...JUST N OF OUR CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. GIVEN THE SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS...NO FLOOD HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IF THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT QPF FCST RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND N OF I-30. BEST RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
STALLED FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN.

TEMP FCST WILL LIKELY BE VERY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT IS
PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THAT TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SEVERAL HRS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  88  70  81 /  10  10  20  50  40
MLU  90  66  87  67  79 /   0  10  20  40  40
DEQ  90  67  77  66  78 /   0  10  50  80  60
TXK  88  67  83  67  78 /   0  10  30  70  60
ELD  88  64  84  66  76 /   0  10  30  50  60
TYR  92  72  88  71  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
GGG  92  71  89  70  82 /  10  10  20  50  40
LFK  94  71  93  73  87 /  20  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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