Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

06


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