Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 201745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 21/18Z...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS
TO VFR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL LA. HOWEVER...
IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN AFTER 21/06Z...MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS...
AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND RETURNS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST
SURFCAE WIND TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS AREA...HOWEVER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY THIN THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE EAST...WITH
CLEARING LINE RIGHT AT CWA BOUNDARY...SOME HIGHS COULD NEED TO BE
RAISED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SLY SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE
PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY BUT A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW.

A LARGER AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE E OF THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND
SHOULD MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DIVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
FROPA AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH
THIS EVENT.

NLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO MOVE SWD
INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
COOLDOWN FROM BEING TOO DRAMATIC BUT BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SE OK/SW AR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE
BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD
BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...SOMETHING WHICH
MANY LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID NOVEMBER OR
EARLIER. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  38  57  43  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
MLU  53  37  56  42  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
DEQ  51  36  53  40  59 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  51  38  54  42  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  51  35  55  41  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
TYR  52  40  57  44  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  39  57  43  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  55  39  59  44  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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