Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160257
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
957 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...BUT THIN CIRRUS SKIRTING NORHTERN TIER.
SOME OF THIS COULD DISAPPEAR WITH OUR PWAT AT TWO TENTHS. MANY
LOCALES NORTH AND EAST HAVE BEEN CALM SINCE SUNSET AND DEW POINTS
HAVE TAKEN A HIT IN THE WRONG DIRECTION FROM FRESH VAPOR OUT OF
THE SOIL. WE STILL SEE SCATTERED LOW 30S AND WITH TEMPS FALLING
THE RESIDUAL HEAT FROM THE DAY IS GOING TO RUN OUT AS THE TOP SOIL
CONTINUES TO COOL. 18Z MODEL DEW POINTS ARE ALMOST UNREASONABLE
COMPARED THESE MID EVENING READINGS...BUT THINKING IS THAT
OVERNIGHT WE WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE DEW POINT. TOUGH
CALL...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE IN THAT EVENT.
THE SECOND NIGHT IS TYPICALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR OUR EAST AND
WE WILL GO WITH THAT FOR PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE HIGHEST PRESSURE
AROUND IS JUST TO OUR EAST AT GREENVILLE MS AND TALLULAH LA AT
1025 MB. SO THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT NE WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA
FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE MIXING...BUT COLD AIR MASS MAY HAVE MODIFIED
JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH TODAY...THAT COUPLE WITH THE EARLY CALM
THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO WEATHER GRIDS IS PUSH BACK PATCHY
FROST FROM MIDNIGHT TO MATCH FREEZE WARNING IN THE WEE HOURS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AT ANY RATE...BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY WITH THE
LAST GASP OF WINTER IS THE FOUR STATE AREA. PLANTS SHOULD BE SAFE
FROM HERE OUT UNTIL NEXT FALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...WITH SKC
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SHOULD START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM THE W BY MIDMORNING OVER E TX/SE
OK...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY SW INTO ECNTRL TX SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT...BUT PERSISTING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE EASING UP. THUS...LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT /EXCEPT FOR LT SE
WINDS RETURNING TO E TX AFTER 06Z/ WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
FOUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES...MAINLY IN THEIR EASTERN MOST
SECTIONS ALONG RIVER AND BAYOU VALLEYS. THE LATE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS AT ALEXANDRIA AND VARIOUS RAWS STATIONS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE DROP
TO RIGHT AT FREEZING READINGS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE STILL
DAMP GROUND WILL RADIATE MOISTURE IN THE EXTREME LOWER ATMOSPHERE
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST EVEN WHERE NOT EXACTLY
FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURE SENSORS ARE NOT ON THE GROUND..BUT
MEASURE SOME 6 FEET UP. A FACT...WHICH OF COURSE WILL NOT LIMIT
THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS OF FROST FORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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