National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 061708
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE OUACHITAS
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR HAS BEGUN
TO SNAKE S INTO SCNTRL AR AS OF MID MORNING...WITH REPORTS OF A
RA/IP MIX IN ELD AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR FREEZING. HAVE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY E TO INCLUDE COLUMBIA AND
UNION COUNTIES IN SW AR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL ALLOW THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORY RIDE ELSEWHERE THROUGH 00Z
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SW AR/SE OK/MUCH OF NE TX. HAVE MY DOUBTS
THAT ICING WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVER RUSK AND HARRISON
COUNTIES IN E TX GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...AND
THE FACT THAT THE SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT REACH
THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE A FEW
DEGREES /NEAR THE FREEZING MARK/...WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS.

HAVE ALSO SEEN ISOLATED -TSRA EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONGER -SHRA
OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THE KSHV RAOB SHOWING
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WCNTRL TX. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A MIXTURE OF SLEET/GRAUPEL AND CREATED A GLAZING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH THIS
PRECIP EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS E ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION NW OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS PERIODS OF -FZRA/IP GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
DRIER AIR ENTRAINING ALOFT...AND COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN
BEFORE ENDING MAINLY OVER SE OK.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL MOST OF THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE...BUT WILL BE EYEING OUR NEXT
SHOT AT A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS A GREATER
PORTION OF OUR REGION. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

DID ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT OBS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY/SLOWLY FALL BY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER WEDGE OF COLDER AIR SEEPS S.

UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS ARE NOW AVAILABLE...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AS LIQUID RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SLEET MIX POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
LAYER BTWN 1 TO 3K FEET. FREEZING LINE AT SFC HAS CONTINUED TO
REMAIN JUST ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF AREA. FRZG RAIN BECMG AN
INCREASING THREAT...BUT MAINLY LIMITED TO SE OK AND RED RIVER VALLEY
BORDERING EXTREME NE TX. HOWEVER...FIRST AREAL TERMINAL TO BE
POSSIBLY AFFECT WOULD BE KTYR AFTER 06/18Z. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY 06/21Z...WITH MOSTLY STEADY MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. IN
THE MEANTIME...CIGS TO VARY BTWN IFR AND MVFR. PRECIP RATES MAY ALSO
BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WHERE OCNL THUNDER IS HEARD...MAINY OVER SW AR
AND EXTREME NORTHCENTRAL LA. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AND NIGHT AREAWIDE. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  24  35  30  37 / 100  10  30  70  70
MLU  39  28  37  30  39 / 100  20  40  80  80
DEQ  36  17  30  25  32 / 100  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  19  29  24  36 / 100  10  20  50  50
ELD  35  23  34  27  32 / 100  10  30  70  70
TYR  34  23  31  25  38 / 100  10  30  40  40
GGG  37  25  33  27  36 / 100  10  30  60  60
LFK  40  31  37  31  39 / 100  10  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ059>061-070>073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ097-109>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-108.

&&

$$

15/07