Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 20/18Z...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR
FLIGHT WEATHER DUE TO CIGS...RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
WINDOWS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AR
INTO NORTH LA. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS AND FOG WILL RETURN
TO MOST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR. SURFACE WIND MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE NW AND
INCREASE THEM ACROSS OUR SERN PARISHES. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AS MANY SITES WERE HITTING THEIR PREVIOUSLY
FCST PEAKS AS OF 10 AM. OTHERWISE...THE FCST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NEWD FROM CNTRL TX AND INTO THE CWA. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER S
TX WILL TRACK GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GULF COAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20 WHILE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN MORE SCT FARTHER N. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LVLS SHOULD ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
END RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT REMAINING OFF THE COAST AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM DEEP E TX EWD INTO CNTRL LA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AND LIGHT
NELY WINDS PROVIDE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NIGHTTIME. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AND THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE KEPT POPS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY FRONT. POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE MOST. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK IN SE OK/SW AR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
COLD AIR WILL GO AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  52  39  55  42 /  30  10  10  10  10
MLU  39  50  39  54  41 /  60  10  10  10  10
DEQ  36  49  35  51  39 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  37  50  36  53  40 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  36  50  36  53  39 /  30  10  10  10  10
TYR  40  52  40  54  44 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  40  52  39  54  43 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  42  52  42  56  44 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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