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889
FXUS64 KSHV 251120
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to develop
roughly near the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas into Northern
Louisiana thus influencing our I-20 terminal locations. -TSRA is
very isolated so have chosen to prevail VCSH across all terminals
this morning with TEMPO -TSRA during the morning hours. Ceilings
are mostly VFR across these same terminals but we are dealing with
LIFR ceilings at the LFK terminal where low level moisture never
scoured out on Saturday. Short term progs support a gradual
decrease in precip coverage and intensity by late morning into the
afternoon hours so have trended the 12z terminal package that way.
LIFR ceilings at the LFK terminal should give way to VFR ceilings
by late morning into the afternoon hours as well.

Look for east to east northeast winds mainly less than 10kts today
becoming light overnight.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Drier airmass continues to gradually work its way swd into the
area today. Although sfc front is located just south of I-20, expecting
isold convection to develop south of 850 mb frontal boundary,
which is just north of I-20. However, with isold showers
developing recently well north of elevated front, and even north
of cwa, will add 20 percent chance of showers across northern
portions of area, for the morning hours. Dewpoints in lower 60s
just north of cwa will also shift south, with overnight lows
falling into 60s for much of area by tonight. Broad upper ridge
help keep pattern in place thru mid week, confining any low pops
to southern portions of area. Zonal flow to continue across much
of rest of conus. Strong short waves movg across upper midwest
later in week will serve to break down upper ridge and pops will
increase as cooling aloft steepens lapse rates, and increased
upper ridging over se states helps pump gulf moisture back into
region. Seasonal temps expected in upper 80s to lower 80s
beginning Tuesday, and overnight lows will rebound back to around
the lower 70s by later in the week.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  65  88  68 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  87  63  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  88  62  86  62 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  87  64  87  67 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  87  61  87  64 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  86  66  86  69 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  86  65  88  68 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  85  68  87  69 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

07/13