Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281922
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
122 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING
WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND JUST ABOVE WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO ABOVE 20-30 KNOTS. ABOVE THIS...
THE LLJ WILL BE INCREASING TO 35-40 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
SPREADING INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA AFFECTING THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS TERMINAL SITES NEAR OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE
REMAINING SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND AND AFTER 29/07-10Z.
AS THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INCREASES UNDER AN INVERSION...IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE APPROACHING BEFORE 29/12Z. LOOKS
AS IF MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CATEGORIES RETURN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 7-14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
MUCH STRONGER WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AFTER 29/14Z SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL KEEP US MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...WHILE WARM AND MOIST SLY WINDS RETURN TO
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUS...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARM UP TODAY INTO THE 60S
AREA WIDE. FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS AS
OF 10Z...EVEN SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS IN SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST WARM-UP
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WARMER AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW OVER THE
RELATIVELY COOLER SFC MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS IN SOME AREAS.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS JUMP INTO
THE 70S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DEEPER S/SW
FLOW FROM THE GULF. THIS RICH MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SETTING UP
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHWRS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
OVER OUR FAR NRN CWA AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...STILL ONLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS ATTM AS
FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE BNDRY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
BUT HAVE ONLY THROWN IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL TRACK AND TIMING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  52  74  59  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
MLU  61  49  71  57  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  62  46  72  54  74 /   0   0  10  10  20
TXK  61  51  73  58  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ELD  60  49  71  58  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  66  56  75  61  77 /   0   0  10  10  10
GGG  65  54  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  10  10
LFK  68  55  76  60  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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