Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271949
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced sea breeze/tropical moisture surge has resulted in near-
widespread coverage of shwrs/tstms this afternoon. This has kept
our temps from warming much, at least relatively speaking,
especially across n LA/srn AR.

Weak upper trof will spill over the ern periphery of the Four
Corners ridge and swd into our region tonight into Thursday,
merging with the stalled ely wave present over ern LA. This will
continue our chances for enhanced diurnal convection through
Friday and Saturday, although most recent raw model output has
trimmed back on coverage. Consensus blends continue to keep our
temps below normal with PoPs in the 40-60 percent range. However,
PoPs have been overdone in the last several days, so have trended
them down some from guidance. Subsequently, feel that guidance may
be too cool on max temps, so have trended a few degrees above.
With convective coverage dwindling during the weekend, we may be
looking at the possibility of Heat Advisories again.

The upper ridge will begin to flex its influence over our region
as we move into next work week. Models keeping some chances for
aftn convection mainly over the ern half of the region, but we
will likely see our temps reaching back into the upper 90s
sometime next week despite this. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across SW
AR, Central and North Central Louisiana this afternoon. These
showers will persist through the reminder of the 28/18Z TAF
package and should diminish during the overnight hours. For the
28/18Z TAFS VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF
period with CU ranging from 5KFT TO 7KFT developing during the
afternoon. Terminal sites that receive rain could see vsbys drop
to 3SM to 4SM with some of the stronger showers and thunderstorms
otherwise vsbys should be unlimited. Winds will remain out of the
S/SW ranging from 5 to 10 kts before decreasing during the
overnight hours to light and variable. Locations that receive rain
overnight could see fog/hz develop with light winds and moisture
in place. /21/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1117 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Overnight/early morning convection across srn AR/n LA continues to
diminish. However, diurnal convection has shown some increase over
the last hour or so, and this should be enhanced by the upper
level low over ern LA today. Have made some minor adjustments to
cloud cover and PoPs to better represent current conditions/trends,
but these should have little impact in the text products overall.
Temps look to be on track, especially when cloud cover/convective
coverage are taken into account, so will not be making any changes
there. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  91  76  94 /  30  50  20  30
MLU  74  89  74  92 /  40  50  20  40
DEQ  74  89  73  92 /  40  50  20  40
TXK  75  88  74  91 /  40  50  20  40
ELD  73  87  74  90 /  40  50  20  40
TYR  76  93  76  95 /  30  40  20  30
GGG  75  91  75  94 /  30  40  20  30
LFK  76  94  76  96 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12


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