Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20


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