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000
FXUS64 KSHV 192058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY GOOD LIFTING CU FIELD AROUND 6KFT NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS
MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN WITH DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE CIRRUS IS
THICKER JUST BACK TO OUR WEST AND WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD TAKES AN EVENING BREAK. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WORKS OUT FAIRLY WELL FOR THE GOING
FORECAST. FOUR STATE AREA RADARS ARE ALL QUIET WITH SOME ECHOES
WEST OF DFW AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT AND NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR EASTER
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECHOS WILL BE A LOT CLOSER TO OUR NW CORNER.
WE WILL BE EDGING OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
TONIGHT AND AGAIN HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOW 80S FOR MANY WHICH IS
A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM/MEX AND IS SLOWLY
WORKING EASTWARD. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL ARRIVE WITH THE GREATEST
LIFT FOR OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...WE WILL SEE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES EDGE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA BY THIS TIME ON SUNDAY AND
PROGRESSIVELY SO INTO MONDAY WITH HEATING COVERAGE LOOKS NEARLY
AREA WIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PERHAPS MAINLY ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT MAY BE BETTER.

WPC QPF IS IN AGREEMENT AND HAS BEEN LOADED INTO THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALSO...TO NOTE THE LOW LEVELS WINDS WILL BE RATHER SLOW
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO LATELY AND MAY GIVE RISE TO
SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. SO IN A TRADE OFF IN THE TIMING...THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LESSENED WITH OUR LOSS OF HEATING BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD
GIVE RISE TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST 5 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AROUND 4KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  82  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  30  50
MLU  54  80  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  30  50
DEQ  53  78  58  77  56 /  10  20  30  50  50
TXK  55  78  59  78  59 /  10  10  30  50  50
ELD  52  80  58  77  57 /  10  10  20  50  50
TYR  60  80  61  79  62 /  10  10  30  40  50
GGG  57  81  60  80  60 /  10  10  20  40  50
LFK  56  81  59  81  62 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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