


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
897 FXUS64 KSHV 120336 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1036 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Overall trend of less diurnally driven convection will continue today. - Rain chances increase slightly for the upcoming weekend with a slight risk for excessive rainfall across portions of southeast Texas and adjacent counties in Arkansas and Texas on Sunday. - Near triple digit temperatures will be possible through much of next week and with critical daytime heat indices, Heat Advisories will likely become necessary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 An upper-level ridge across the Bahamas will gradually retrograde west allowing for a warming trend across the ArkLaTex with temperatures nearing the triple digits aross portions of north Louisiana by Tuesday into Wednesday. However, along the western periphery of the ridge, across mainly southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in Texas and Arkansas, a lingering upper-level trough will serve as the focus for periods of convection across these areas from Saturday through Monday night. A mesoscale low developing within the broader trough axis will linger across central Oklahoma Saturday night, drifting northeast into Missouri on Sunday. This feature could be the source for excessive rainfall across portions of mainly southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in Texas and Arkansas on Saturday night into Sunday. However, excessive rainfall threat is forecast to diminish by Sunday afternoon onward as upper-level support migrates east into the Ohio River Valley. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting the nuances of mesoscale factors that could contribute to excessive rainfall, adjustments to the excessive rainfall forecast can be expected through the weekend. Otherwise, heat headlines can be expected across portions of the ArkLaTex from late in the weekend onward as heat index values approach 105 degrees. /05/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions will return late evening into the early overnight period in wake of afternoon convection. However, low clouds will move into the region after daybreak, bringing reduced flight categories. The low clouds should lift by late morning, but widespread isolated to scattered convection is expected across the region by tomorrow afternoon. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 95 / 30 50 10 30 MLU 75 96 75 96 / 20 30 10 30 DEQ 72 92 71 90 / 10 40 40 50 TXK 76 97 75 95 / 20 40 30 40 ELD 74 95 73 93 / 20 40 10 40 TYR 75 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40 GGG 74 94 74 94 / 40 50 20 30 LFK 74 94 74 94 / 40 70 10 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...20