Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 010935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEAK SFC FRONT HAVE
BACKDOORED WSW TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX...INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SE TX TO NEAR THE SRN LA COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH SFC RIDGING OVER AR EXPECTED TO MIX DRIER AIR
FARTHER SW INTO TX LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING OVER W
TX INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT BASIN WILL LINGER OVER
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY BUILDING
E TOWARDS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. IR SATELLITE AND
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING CONVECTION
OVER THE LOWER TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK THIS MORNING...WITH
RESULTANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPILLING SE AROUND
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS DEBRIS HAS BEEN THINNING
FARTHER E INTO AR/N LA...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY EVEN AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION DRIFT FARTHER E INTO
WRN OK/WCNTRL TX. THUS...STRONG INSULATION WILL AGAIN YIELD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE TODAY...ALTHOUGH RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
UNSEASONABLY LOW YIELDING HEAT INDICES NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE SFC RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT E INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION...YIELDING A GRADUAL
RETURN OF SERLY SFC WINDS TO CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH BNDRY LYR MOISTURE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY RETURN N
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENS BEHIND THE
RETREATING SFC RIDGE. WITH THE SLIGHT EWD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK OVER PORTIONS
OF E TX/N LA...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES.

PERSISTENCE SHOULD BE KEY TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER W TX/NM THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...RIPPLES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING RIDING SE ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MAY INFLUENCE PORTIONS OF SE OK/SW AR AND NCNTRL
LA...RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...LITTLE AGREEMENT EXISTS ATTM AMONGST THE
ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE CANADIAN FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT AN EWD
EXPANSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THUS...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISH AS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SPREADS E INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF SW AR/NCNTRL LA MAY YET STILL BE INFLUENCED BY WEAKNESSES
IN THE RIDGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  96  69  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  96  64  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  69  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  98  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  97  70  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  67  99  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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