Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT STG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY IN DAY ON SATURDAY...HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH LA/SE
TX. SFC LOW DEVELOPED OVER EAST TX LAKES...WITH INVERTED TROUGH
PIVOTING NWD AROUND LOW. A CONCENTRATED ARFEA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHCENTRAL LA...JUST SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THIS
TROUGH. HAVE TAILORED POPS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BASED ON
NAM MODEL DEPICTION OF FOCUSING TROUGH MOVING TO NEAR I-30
CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN SHIFTING BACK SWD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH....WILL SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND BRING
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY COVERAGE...INTIL NW FLOW KICKS BOTH
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF AREA BY MONDAY EVE.
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP AND PROVIDE A NEEDED PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THRU THE WEEK. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  40  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  30  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  40  50  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  70  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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