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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170833
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
333 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA STREAMING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTH AND LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOWER RAIN CHANCES...AND REDUCED CLOUD-COVER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX/SW AR HAS DISSIPATED COMPLETELY.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM NEAR
KCDS...TO KOKC...TO KPPF WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE AND MAY AFFECT SOME
OF OUR TERMINALS BY AROUND SUNRISE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
THE LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE IN THE 12Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE. SCT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PD...MAINLY ALONG
AND N OF I-20...WITH SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS AREAWIDE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  89  72  90 /  40  40  40  50  40
MLU  92  72  90  71  89 /  40  40  50  60  40
DEQ  88  71  85  69  87 /  60  70  60  70  40
TXK  89  71  88  71  87 /  40  60  60  70  40
ELD  90  71  89  70  87 /  60  50  50  60  40
TYR  91  73  91  73  90 /  20  30  30  30  30
GGG  91  73  90  73  91 /  30  30  40  40  40
LFK  93  73  92  73  92 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/12