Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221121
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
521 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. SCT-BKN
VFR CIGS were impacting klfk early this morning, but the cloud
cover continued to push southward whilst scouring out. As such,
should see FEW VFR-SKC conditions during the morning hours, with
FEW-SCT VFR CIGS becoming more commonplace by the afternoon. This
evening, FEW VFR CIGS will make a return by the evening.
Otherwise, slightly breezy northerly winds this morning /5-11
kts/ will increase a bit more by late morning/early afternoon
/10-13 kts/, but will quickly decouple shortly after sunset giving
way to light and variable or calm conditions overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front continues its southward push toward the Gulf coast this
morning with just some lingering stratocu cloud decks over parts
of east Texas extending down across Toledo Bend country into west
central Louisiana. These clouds should clear prior to daybreak
with sunny skies expected areawide today in this very cool and dry
air mass. High temperatures will only manage to warm into the mid
and upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon followed by rapid
cooling overnight as lows bottom out either side of freezing to
begin Thanksgiving Day, setting the stage for a nice warm-up back
near 60 degrees north to lower and mid 60s south with ample
sunshine. These slightly cooler than normal temperatures will fall
by the wayside as we move ahead to Black Friday as we push back
toward the 70 degree mark. This trend continues into the weekend
despite a reinforcing cool front, which will move on through with
little fanfare other than a brief wind shift.

Upper ridging will generally dominate our weather through much of
the extended period with temperatures still trending slightly
above normal. Our next big weather change will come Tuesday night
into Wednesday of next week as a strong cold front will advance
south into the region. This front does appear to bring with it a
decent chance of rainfall based on sufficient moisture return in
advance of its arrival. For now, have taken a more conservative
approach to POPs until better consensus is reached over the next
several days. Nonetheless, it looks as if we will end November on
a rather wet and cool note with this front clearing the region by
late Wednesday into early Thursday with below normal temperatures
returning for the latter half of next week.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  31  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  32  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  55  29  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  35  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  59  33  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  35  64  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/19



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