Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260128
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
828 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 26/00Z terminal forecast period expecting mostly VFR flight
categories outside of the showers and thunderstorms ongoing this
evening. Also during the early morning hours for parts of Deep
East Texas and across parts of Northwest and North Central
Louisiana where patchy mist/BR develops and low level moisture
spreads low clouds into the area resulting in period of MVFR after
2612Z-2615Z. Surface winds will be light and variable overnight
and increases to 6-10 knots from the East and Southeast Tuesday.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Ely wave moving across the nrn Gulf Coast and weak front across
central AR/se OK are providing some enhancement to our typical
summertime diurnal convection. Cloud cover and lower heights aloft
have kept the heat at bay for the most part today. This general
weather pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday, keeping
chances for rain in and our temps near or just below seasonal
normals.

Ely wave looks to be absorbed into the main upper flow by
midweek, as a weak trof dips into the MS River Valley. This looks
to bring our best chances for rain yet, although have kept the PoP
fcst on the conservative side for now. Model blend outputs
generated 70 PoPs for much of our region Thursday. Look for PoPs
to increase in our fcst this week as Thursday nears and confidence
increases. Upper trof will be slow to depart in weak flow aloft,
and we will keep rain chances and /relatively/ cooler temps for
the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Max temp
guidance suggesting upper 80s for much of the region for the
latter half of this work week, which is hard to believe for late
July. Have trended the numbers that direction, but still stayed a
couple of degrees above the consensus blends.

As the trof departs, the ridge is fcst to make a gradual comeback
over TX during the weekend and beyond, which will put an end to
our rain chances and bring warmer temps back to the region. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  76  90 /  20  30  20  60
MLU  76  94  76  88 /  30  40  20  60
DEQ  75  95  75  94 /  30  30  20  40
TXK  75  96  76  93 /  30  30  20  40
ELD  75  96  75  89 /  20  30  20  50
TYR  76  95  76  93 /  20  30  20  50
GGG  76  95  76  92 /  20  30  20  50
LFK  75  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/12



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