Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.