Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 220408
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO SKY AND PATCHY FOG AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
DEW POINTS. ALSO...ADDED SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE NEW DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF STRATUS ALREADY CREEPING IN ACROSS I-20 IN TEXAS AND NEAR
THERE IN LOUISIANA. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALREADY TACKED ON 10KTS
SINCE OUR SOUNDING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGHTENING LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHELRY WINDS ALREADY TURNING THE TIDE ON DEW
POINTS...SO WE HAVE BUMPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR ALL EXCEPT EL DORADO WHERE WE LOWERED A COUPLE WITH 43
OVER 40 THERE NOW AND CALM. LOWS MAY OCCUR SOON IN MANY LOCALES AS
CLOUDS THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE FOR A TIDE THERE TOO AND
PERHAPS LESS PATCHY FOG WITH NEW NAM WINDS INCREASING A BIT
OVERNIGHT FROM CURRENT OBS ANYWAY. WE HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AS OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE MAY PICK UP IN SIZE
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MUCH
OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...WITH THESE CIGS EVENTUALLY
SPREADING ENE INTO THE REMAINDER OF SW AR/NW LA BY 06Z...AND
NCNTRL LA BETWEEN 08-12Z. THESE CIGS SHOULD LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE
AS WELL AREAWIDE AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON
A SERLY FLOW. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH A
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA THAT
REMAIN CLOUD FREE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS...BUT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY LATE ONCE THE LOWER CIGS
ARRIVE...AND WINDS INCREASE A TAD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS E TX/SW AR...SERLY
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUCH THAT FG SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS OF 4-6SM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE
MUCH IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH IFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE BETTER
MIXING OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. ALSO CAN/T
RULE OUT SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS
ATTM. SE WINDS 4-10KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-11KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THINGS TO LOOK AT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION TO AROUND 850 MB...WILL KEEP IN LOW CLOUDS AND
A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
WHERE MOISTURE A LITTLE DEEPER...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN CWA ALLOWING FOG TO
BECOME DENSE AT TIMES...WHILE FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT SOUTH WINDS
MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED WITH MOSTLY JUST LOW CLOUDS. AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST DEEPENS...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTN...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT MARGINAL MID LVL MOISTURE.
DEPENDING ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT...OR
SLOWER NAM...WHETHER SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BUT EITHER WAY...FAVORABLE
LOW LVL SHEAR NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW STG TSTMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG WITH
LIKELY POPS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE JUST BEHIND FRONT...IN
ADDITION TO WRAPAROUND PRECIP POSSIBLY CATCHING AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-30. SHOULD THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP...
A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH OF LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE OR IMPACT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY TEMP
RISE FOLLOWING FROPA.

GOOD RADIATION COOLING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING MAINLY BTWN 30 AND THE MID 30S. DEEP COLD AIRMASS TO ENTER
REGION NEXT WEEKEND BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THIS FROPA...NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT WINTER WX WITH FRONT ATTM. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  66  52  54  36 /  10  20  30  50  30
MLU  47  64  55  61  37 /  10  30  40  60  40
DEQ  46  60  44  49  31 /  10  20  20  40  20
TXK  46  62  48  51  34 /  10  20  20  40  30
ELD  41  62  48  56  34 /  10  20  30  60  40
TYR  48  65  45  51  36 /  10  10  20  40  10
GGG  47  66  49  52  35 /  10  10  20  40  20
LFK  50  69  54  56  36 /  10  10  20  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15




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