Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 30/20Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KSPS...TO
KMLC...AND INTO NW AR. THE FRONT CAN ALSO BE LOCATED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF IT FROM N TX NEWD INTO NRN AR AND SE MO.
FRONT HAS GOTTEN QUITE THE PUSH SWD TODAY THANKS TO A 35 KT JET
STREAK AT H85 DIVING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER N TX AND AR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COMPARISONS OF 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM KSHV/KFWD/KLZK INDICATE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER N TX AND AR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A POP-FREE FCST WITH THIS
FROPA. COLD FRONT ITSELF IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S IN NRN OK.

STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO DIVE
SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AS A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE SRN CONUS. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OUR FIRST
FREEZING TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-20. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA N OF I-20 FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
FOR SUNDAY MORNING BUT INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AND SELY SFC WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EXTREME SWRN
AR.

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE RETURN OF SLY SFC WINDS AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO A FAST RECOVERY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN EVENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS ARE FCSTING QUITE
A BIT OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY BUT THE FINE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A KOKC TO KPPF
LINE...WILL CONTINUE RACING SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT NLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.