Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221136
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Low-level moisture from previous rain across east Texas
contributing to LIFR fog conditions at LFK. Elsewhere, tempo MVFR
ceilings have been observed across TYR/GGG/SHV/MLU/ELD.
Conditions to improve to VFR later this morning, continuing
through around 23/08Z before visibility values diminish once
again across select terminals. Otherwise, southeast winds around 5
knots today to become light and variable overnight. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The combination of mostly clear skies, light winds, and a moist
boundary layer is once again leading to patchy fog across much of
the Four State Region this morning. Similar to the last few days,
the fog should mix out by mid to late morning. An upper ridge
with the axis oriented southwest to northeast from the Big Bend of
the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes continues to build, while a
long wave trough digs over the Western CONUS. Daytime temperatures
will continue to be above normal through the weekend, generally
in the low to mid 90s. Any sea breeze activity will remain very
isolated and mostly confined to Deep East Texas and Central
Louisiana. A weak upper low drifting west across the Northern Gulf
Coast may allow those rain chances to expand across more of the
area Saturday and Sunday, but overall coverage is still not
expected to warrant anything more than slight chance PoPs.

By late in the weekend and heading into Monday, the Western U.S.
trough will slowly move east into the Central Rockies, and the
dominant upper ridge will move into the Northeast States. The
flow aloft will gradually transition to southwesterly early next
week resulting in an increase in deep layer moisture. As the upper
trough slowly moves east across the Northern Plains, a cold front
will be pushed into the region around the middle of next week.
The slow movement of the positively-tilted trough axis will keep
the front progression slow and most of the rain will be northwest
and west of our area across Oklahoma and Texas. During the latter
half of next week, the front is finally expected to move across
our area bringing good chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The models are in general agreement with bringing a front through
the area next week, but differ considerably regarding timing and
the overall evolution of the upper trough. The GFS is considerably
more aggressive and suggests a rather potent shortwave will dig
into the Lower Mississippi Valley late next week pushing the front
through the area and provides a much wetter forecast. Despite
these important differences, the medium range guidance has been
fairly consistent over the last couple of days depicting the
arrival of a cold front and signaling a pattern change. For now,
the big takeaways from this forecast are much better chances for
organized rainfall and cooler temperatures in the extended
periods.

CN



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  93  73 /  10   0  20  10
MLU  93  71  92  71 /  10   0  20  10
DEQ  91  69  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
TXK  91  70  90  71 /  10   0  10  10
ELD  92  70  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  93  71  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
GGG  94  70  92  70 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/19


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