Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190503
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1203 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, VFR for a few hrs, but these moist Southerly
winds 5-10KTS will soon bring in the stratus. Climb winds are
S20-30KT and SW30-50KT for flight levels. Expect stratus decks
IFR/MVFR 09Z-18Z. A weak system approaching will time well with
afternoon heating on Friday for a few terminals with VCTS late
this cycle as clouds scatter to VFR. Area outlook remains unsettle
into weekend with a stronger system/fropa. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The evening satellite imagery indicates an extensive area of
convective debris spilling E into the region from the ongoing MCS
over Srn/Ern OK, as well as sct supercells over Wcntrl TX.
Isolated to widely sct convection has increased over the last hour
or so over McCurtain County OK as well as the Nrn sections of SW
AR, where Srly low level winds just away from the LLJ have
increased to 30-40kts ahead of a broadly difluent region over
much of OK well ahead of the upper closed low spinning over Wrn CO
this evening. Although the earlier progs had suggested MCS
development a little later tonight where convection is ongoing
attm, the HRRR is also having to play catchup with the Srn most
edge of the bow about to enter Nrn Atoka/Pittsburg Counties in SE
OK possibly affecting Nrn McCurtain County OK between 04-05Z,
should it backbuild farther S. However, the progs do suggest that
this convection should continue to build more NE overnight,
consistent with embedded shortwave energy also ejecting NE ahead
of the closed low. The air mass over this region remains
moderately unstable this evening with MLCapes of 2500-3000 J/Kg,
with strong capping noted on the 00Z KSHV raob near H700 (and even
weak capping noted at FWD) limiting the Swd extent of convection
development overnight. Still can`t rule out an isolated svr threat
for our far NW counties given the extent of instability and the
increasing SSW LLJ, which should help sustain convection through
at least a portion of the overnight hours.

Have updated the forecast to lower pops a bit over SW AR/extreme
NE TX, but did maintain low to mid chance pops across the far NW
zones. Also removed pops for much of E TX/N LA/Scntrl AR as the
isolated and rogue -SHRA have diminished with the loss of heating.
Given the Srly winds staying up overnight, and the extensive
convective debris spreading E, with additional low stratus
developing/advecting N late, have bumped up min temps slightly
with temps only falling into the lower and mid 70s, with the
warmer temps confined to portions of E TX/extreme NW LA.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  88  73  83 /  10  30  20  60
MLU  72  88  72  86 /  10  30  20  50
DEQ  69  85  69  79 /  30  30  50  80
TXK  72  85  71  80 /  20  30  40  70
ELD  72  87  71  82 /  10  30  20  60
TYR  74  89  72  81 /  20  30  40  80
GGG  74  88  72  82 /  10  30  30  70
LFK  73  89  73  85 /  10  30  20  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/15



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