Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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522
FXUS64 KSHV 110355
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
TWEAK A FEW OVERNIGHT LOWS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SITES WITH CALM WINDS ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN SHOULD BE FOR
FORECAST LOWS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL DAYBREAK. BUMPED DEQ DOWN A CAT
WITH A JUST SMIDGE LOWER AT ELD AND LFK. ON THE OTHER HAND...WE
STILL HAVE SOME SITES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 MPH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S. OUR SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
VAD STILL 35 TO 40KTS AT 1-2KFT. A LITTLE SFC LOW OVER IS N/NE OK
AND WILL DROP SOUTH...WEAKENING WINDS A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
AN INVERSION DROPPING DOWN AS WELL. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL SEE WEAK
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITH A
1030MB HIGH OVER IA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 11/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SW WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM 5-10 KTS...VEERING WESTWARD ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AT
TXK/ELD AND THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS.
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT..GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE N/NE OVER TIME WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY
THE END OF THE PD. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
SFC LOW DESCENDS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
US FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH AS THURSDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THESE COLD FRONTS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START...AS STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY`S FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN BY SUNDAY...AS NW FLOW ALOFT
WANES AND BECOMES MORE WLY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHWRS WILL
EVEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS...AS A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY IN
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL BRING SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ATTM WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE EURO DEEPER AND MORE DEFINED
THAN THE EURO. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE OVERALL FORECAST ATTM. LATEST MODEL BLENDS KICK OUR POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT HAVE HELD OFF AT 50 POPS FOR NOW.
GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN FUTURE
FCSTS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FCST FOR THE END OF THE FCST PD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING US BEYOND THE
SEVEN DAY PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  70  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  33  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  43  66  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  46  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  47  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  44  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/19



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