Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020738
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARMUP WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT AFFECT TEMPS TODAY IS
INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AS IR IMAGERY SHOWING
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. FEEL
LIKE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL THIN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND FCST MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD FALL IN LINE.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH
THAT RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER/MID MISS
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
EAST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTN/EVNG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FACT THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN THE GREATER PRECIPIATION
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS WELL. NOT SEEING ANY FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS...THUS CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A LOW CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TIED TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BUT
AGAIN...BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE THIS WKEND. OUR 88D RADAR VAD IS INDICATING WE
A SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF 15-25KTS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE
WILL BRING SCTVBKN CU MIDDAY...LIFTING AND THINNING DURING
HEATING. SFC WINDS ESE BY DAYBREAK AND S/SE INTO THE AFTN 10KTS OR
LESS. CLIMB WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DEEPENING SE FLOW TO CU
BASES AND THEN VEERING TO SW AND NW BY 10KFT...ALL PRETTY MUCH
5-15KTS DURING HEATING...WITH A BIT MORE WIND ABV FL300 AND SOME
CIRRUS INCREASING ON THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  56  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  53  80  56 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  80  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  80  54  82  57 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  83  59  83  60 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  85  58  84  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.