Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 200249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 20/06Z WITH
EXCEPTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE
MVFR BRIEFLY. DURING THE NIGHT EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR AND IFR LATE WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 20/16Z TO 2018Z
TO VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE HOURS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY HOURS FOR TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL FOLLOW THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. AS EXPECTED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR TEXAS COUNTIES
LIFTING NORTHEAST WARD WITH MEAGER COVERAGE SO FAR. THE WINDS
THERE ARE MOIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW...THE MORE STABLE AIR
REMAINS OVER OUR EAST AND MAYBE FOR A WHILE YET.

FARTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONGER AND TO SOME EXTENT A
BIT MORE NUMEROUS. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REASON IS A GOOD PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW. THE
TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IT/S EVOLUTION BEYOND
SUNDOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WORKING EAST OUT INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

SO AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE ACTION WE HAVE THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ALONG THE AR/LA STATE LINE OR SO WITH A CONTINUED
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS A GOOD PUSH OF
QPF INTO OUR NW CORNER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE DIURNAL
COVERAGE GONE HOURS EARLIER IN THE MID EVENING. THE NAM IS
SIMILAR...BUT MUCH SLOWER. THE RAIN THAT ACTUALLY FALLS IN THIS
AREA IS CRUCIAL TO RIVER FORECAST WHICH IS QPF DRIVEN. SO CLOSE
ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS IS MORE THAN WARRANTED WITH ALREADY PRETTY
HIGH WATER AND SOIL SATURATION AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SETTLE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE GREATLY AS WE SEE ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND OUT INTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  86  70  79 /  20  30  50  40
MLU  69  88  69  79 /  20  30  50  40
DEQ  68  82  62  74 /  60  50  50  30
TXK  68  83  67  75 /  50  40  50  40
ELD  67  83  65  75 /  20  30  50  40
TYR  70  84  66  78 /  30  30  50  40
GGG  69  85  68  79 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  71  86  71  83 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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