Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 200556
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1156 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 20/06z TAFs, scattered showers and a couple of isolated
thunderstorms continue from South Texas northward into Eastern
Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. A few additional showers have
developed ahead of this line over East Texas, Western Louisiana,
and Southwest Arkansas. Based on latest radar loops, KTXK and KTYR
will be the most likely TAF sites to be affected at the start of
the period. KLFK and KGGG have recently reported -RA, but latest
radar loops appear to indicate the showers exiting those TAF sites
for the moment, but we will continue to monitor. Scattered
convection will continue to affect the area for much of the
period. Thunderstorms are expected to form a much more robust
complex by 21/00z. This complex will slowly move southeast, but
may still be primarily confined to Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast
Texas, and extreme Southwest Arkansas at the end of the period.

Ceilings at all TAF sites should lower into the MVFR range during
the first few hours of the period. A slow improvement back into
the VFR is expected by early afternoon before convection begins to
bring deteriorating flight conditions. Winds will also remain
somewhat gusty through the night and sustained speeds should
increase back to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts during the daytime
hours.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An enhanced pressure gradient between a low across Oklahoma and a
surface high over the east coast will maintain an enhanced
pressure gradient tonight with wind speeds continuing around 20
mph with higher gusts. Therefore a lake wind advisory remains in
effect. Additionally, showers to increase in coverage from the
west as front eases eastward. For this update went ahead and
extended pops slightly farther east across Toledo Bend into west
central Louisiana to account for latest radar trends. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  81  65  66 /  20  60 100 100
MLU  65  84  67  74 /  10  30  40 100
DEQ  64  74  51  52 /  60  90 100 100
TXK  64  78  58  58 /  30  70 100 100
ELD  64  81  63  64 /  20  40 100 100
TYR  66  75  57  58 /  20  90 100 100
GGG  64  78  62  62 /  20  60 100 100
LFK  66  79  66  71 /  20  60  80 100

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ077.

     Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday
     night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.

&&

$$

09/05



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.