Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 211540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1040 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

Strong upper-level ridge across the region to maintain hot
conditions areawide with most locations forecast to experience
high temperatures in the upper 90s. A weak surface boundary
extending from western Arkansas to north-central Louisiana to
allow for a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
mainly northeast Louisiana. West of the boundary across northeast
Texas, slightly drier air will allow heat index values to stay
below heat advisory criteria. Current forecast is on track. No
updates at this time. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

For the ArkLaTex, the upper ridge is spinning over overhead, but
is slowly retrograding West which may bring to bear some weak N/NW
flow aloft for venting isold tstms almost anywhere. However have
VTCS only at KMLU/KLFK in this package for afternoon hours. Sfc
winds are calm and or light SW and will back to S later today.
Aloft, we are very light on speed all the way up and N/NE
10-20KTS into flight levels. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

The upper level high pressure system remain entrenched across the
Central Plains...Southern Plains and portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley early this morning. Sea-breeze convection slow
to get going across Southern LA due to the proximity of the UL
ridge, but the day has just begun and it will likely increase in
coverage later this morning. Model solutions show the best chance
for isolated showers and thunderstorms to occur across portions of
the ARKLATEX, but especially for locales across North LA, extreme
Northeast TX and Southwest AR where the best low level moisture
resides /PWATS aoa 2.00 inches/. As in recent days, any lingering
precip will diminish shortly after sunset and a similar scenario
is expected tomorrow. The main story of course is the heat, as
temps will once again climb into the upper 90s but perhaps a few
locales nearing/equating the century mark both today and tomorrow
is not of the question. Dewpoints have failed to mix out given
the orientation of the sfc wind component, with the exception of
portions of East TX. Dewpoints in the last few days have managed
to drop into the upper 60s there, which is still moist, but enough
to negate heat indices from exceeding 105 degrees. As such have
elected to remove several counties across East TX from the Heat
advisory, and have once again extended the advisory one more day
through Saturday 00Z. Will need to remain vigilant and assess the
heat indices later this aftn to see if this trend does indeed come
into fruition, otherwise the advisory will need to be adjusted.
However, lack of beneficial rainfall the last several weeks will
only aid in drying out the ground hence the warmer temps.

With the UL ridge still progged to shift North and West towards the
Four-Corners region this weekend-early next week, this could open
the door for disturbances across the Northern CONUS to impinge on
the area, as well as a few embedded Easterly impulses from the
Gulf and the Atlantic. This unsettled wx pattern may lead to
increasing chances for rainfall perhaps as soon as this weekend as
hinted at by the increase in pops per the Super-blended solution.
Rainfall accompanied by increasing cloud cover will subsequently
lower temps into the lower to middle 90s next week, thus perhaps
mitigating the need for a Heat Advisory extension.


SHV  99  79  99  79 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  98  78  97  78 /  20  20  30  20
DEQ  98  76  99  77 /  10  10  20  10
TXK  99  79  99  78 /  20  10  20  10
ELD  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  20  20
TYR  99  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFK  98  77  97  77 /  20  10  20  20


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-112-126.



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