Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
07Z ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEMPHIS AND
PINE BLUFF TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING
UP RESIDENCE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA BY 12Z...
BACKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES
BY LATE AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING A CU FIELD AROUND 4-5KFT
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE TX INTO NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL MISS...MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY BUT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHALLOW
ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

SFC RIDGE SETS UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS INTO
EASTERN OK AND THE TX PNHDL REGION WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS
DIMINISHING TO NEAR OR LESS THAN 5KTS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AXIS LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...FURTHER SUPPLEMENTING THE COOLER DRIER AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE TROUGH THAT MOVED EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY CUTS
OFF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WILL CUT INTO IT A BIT BUT RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHOULD BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE PLAINS TROUGH TO CUTOFF ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE LATER HALF OF OCTOBER
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT UNFORTUNATELY...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS FLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND LIKELY BEYOND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM N TO S AS A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SWD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCT MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AROUND NOON AS CIGS
LIFT AND DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH HELPING TO THIN THE CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AROUND 8-10 KTS FOLLOWING THE FROPA AND
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 19/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  52  76  53  80 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  79  49  75  49  79 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  76  47  73  47  77 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  76  49  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  76  47  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  81  54  77  55  80 /  10  10   0  10  10
GGG  81  52  76  53  80 /  10  10   0  10  10
LFK  85  56  80  56  81 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13




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