Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190014
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have extended the lwa for northern portions of area which was set
to expire at 6 pm. Wind gusts were still exceeding 25 kts in some
of these locations. Will see how winds trend by the 9 pm
expiration of the lwa to decide whether to allow to expire or
continue across southern portions of the cwa. Also adjusted cloud
cover upwards for the early eve hours given that two bands of
mid/upper lvl clouds still sinking swd across the region before
skies clear out later this eve./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

AVIATION...
High pressure building across the region behind a cold front will
maintain northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25
knots through mid-evening. Winds to gradually diminish overnight
to around 5 to 8 knots. North winds around 10 to 15 knots higher
gusts expected from 19/12Z-19/18Z before winds again settle to
around 5 to 8 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail through
the terminal forecast period. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front is moving right along unaffected by early
heating now as it stretches from Toledo Bend to Monroe. It was
windy all day, but notably so along and right behind the cold
front with some gusts toward 40 mph from the Northwest. A great
trip this afternoon/evening down I-49, but a solid cross wind for
I-30 and I-20 today. We have extended the Lake Wind Advisory
until 9 pm along and South of I-20. Even overnight will be breezy
in the wake of this cold front as strong high pressure arrives in
the Four State Area.

A 1024mb is pushing off of the front range of the Rockies this
afternoon will build to 1028 over the Texas and Oklahoma plains
overnight. This high will drift overhead into late tomorrow, but
still a typical second colder night coming with radiational
cooling for overnight Sunday. Monday morning will see more
freezing temps for the first time in a while North and East close
to the center of the high, while just closer to climatological
averages for some of our area.

By midnight tonight we will have daily lows set compared to near
record warm numbers this morning. On the other hand, Shreveport
managed to tie the record high for the date set back in 1985.
From here on our temperatures will be in and out of averages with
this cooler trend to rebound just a bit before more high pressure
refreshing the North wind by midweek.

The drought conditions will only worsen in this regime with
little if any rain forecasted for the next week. Any amounts will
be very light for this 7 day period. A third area of high pressure
arrives this time next week and all with just not much return
flow to meet the boundaries. Even today we only had shallow
moisture and a pencil thin line of showers showing up well on
mosaics from Toledo Bend to Monroe at this time. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  36  59  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  39  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  59  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  40  61  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  41  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  42  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

07



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