Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271206 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE INTO SW
AR/SE OK THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPS ALONG A 30-35KT SRLY LLJ...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY
MIDDAY. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN REDEVELOPING/ADVECTING N ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND FG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND WELL AS NCNTRL LA LATE...WITH THESE LOW
CIGS SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER SE OK/WRN AR LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS AS
IF THIS CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF AFFECTING THE TXK TERMINAL UNTIL
JUST AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD SEE DETERIORATING CIGS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
LOW STRATUS ADVECTS N. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL
RESULT IN S WINDS 10-15KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER PORTIONS
OF E TX/SE OK. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONALLY WARM TEMPS IN STORE WITH AFTN TEMPS
IN LOWER AND MID 80S EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER IN DAY FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG FRONT
POSSIBLY ENTERING SE OK AND RED RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GFS IS BOTH QUICKER WITH FRONT...AND SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG
BOUNDARY THAN NAM...WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE ONLY SUPPORTS ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT. AS BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEN FURTHER
EAST...WILL KEEP NE TX MOSTLY ISOLD AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS AREA...AND MOSTLY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS SW AR AND
NORTHERN LA. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH LATER IN
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BRINGING ISOLD SHOWERS TO SW PORTIONS OF CWA. THEREAFTER...COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
DEEP SW FLOW INTO REGION BY FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND FIRST
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY. HOWEVER...FOR
DAYS 7 AND 8 IN FCST...WILL KEEP POPS LOW ATTM. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  82  62  72 /  10  10  30  30  30
MLU  86  65  83  62  73 /  10  10  30  40  30
DEQ  81  62  74  52  72 /  10  30  40  30  10
TXK  83  65  77  57  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
ELD  84  64  76  59  71 /  10  10  40  40  20
TYR  84  66  81  61  73 /  10  10  30  20  20
GGG  84  65  82  63  73 /  10  10  30  30  30
LFK  85  66  84  65  78 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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