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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWRD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF TX/OK WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT SHWRS ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER
N CNTRL TX AND SE OK. IN ADDITION...CONTINUING TO WATCH SIMILAR
ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE LA. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE SFC AND BY LOOKING AT LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS...THE ANSWER IS LITTLE IF ANY. HOWEVER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME
LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT SO HAVE CARRIED 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TROF AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY IN SRN OK/NRN TX.
MOSTLY COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE IN THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER MIMAC OBS AND TRENDS GOING
FORWARD LATER TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT ALTHOUGH
WORDING IN THE ZONES LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE. DID ALSO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EAST AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THE MOMENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME CU/AC AND AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO S TX...WITH A LARGE SUCKER
HOLE NOTED IN A 50NM WIDE AREA OVER SW AR/NW LA/E TX. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL IN WITH AN EXTENSIVE 9-11KFT CIG...ALTHOUGH LOWER CU
CIGS NEAR 4.5KFT WILL SHIFT E THIS EVENING AND THEN S
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING FRIDAY OVER NE LA...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE
AC FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY
OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND OVER WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFTER 18Z...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS BUT AGAIN...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE INSERTING
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER W ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. LT NE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  55  74  56  78  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  50  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  20  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  52  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  53  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19