Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 182139
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
339 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front is moving right along unaffected by early
heating now as it stretches from Toledo Bend to Monroe. It was
windy all day, but notably so along and right behind the cold
front with some gusts toward 40 mph from the Northwest. A great
trip this afternoon/evening down I-49, but a solid cross wind for
I-30 and I-20 today. We have extended the Lake Wind Advisory
until 9 pm along and South of I-20. Even overnight will be breezy
in the wake of this cold front as strong high pressure arrives in
the Four State Area.

A 1024mb is pushing off of the front range of the Rockies this
afternoon will build to 1028 over the Texas and Oklahoma plains
overnight. This high will drift overhead into late tomorrow, but
still a typical second colder night coming with radiational
cooling for overnight Sunday. Monday morning will see more
freezing temps for the first time in a while North and East close
to the center of the high, while just closer to climatological
averages for some of our area.

By midnight tonight we will have daily lows set compared to near
record warm numbers this morning. On the other hand, Shreveport
managed to tie the record high for the date set back in 1985.
From here on our temperatures will be in and out of averages with
this cooler trend to rebound just a bit before more high pressure
refreshing the North wind by midweek.

The drought conditions will only worsen in this regime with
little if any rain forecasted for the next week. Any amounts will
be very light for this 7 day period. A third area of high pressure
arrives this time next week and all with just not much return
flow to meet the boundaries. Even today we only had shallow
moisture and a pencil thin line of showers showing up well on
mosaics from Toledo Bend to Monroe at this time. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, as a strong
cold front, extending along a PSN, to TYR, to JXI, TXK, and HOT
line as of 1730Z, quickly shifts SE across the region. Low VFR
cigs will persist ahead of the front, although a brief period of
high based MVFR cigs will be possible near the frontal zone as it
reaches a LFK/SHV/ELD line around 19Z, and a IER/MLU line by 21Z.
Additional high based MVFR/low VFR cigs will be possible behind
the front this afternoon as they spill SE into portions of NE
TX/SW AR, before eventually scattering out by early evening. Can`t
also rule out the potential for isolated -SHRA developing this
afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/N LA along/ahead of the
front, but confidence remains too low to warrant VCSH mention in
the LFK/MLU terminals attm. The main impacts this
afternoon/evening will be strong winds both in advance and behind
the front. Strong SW winds 14-22kts with gusts to 30+ kts ahead of
the front will quickly become NW 18-23kts with gusts to 35kts
possible through 00Z Sunday. Post-frontal winds will begin to
diminish to 7-13kts this evening, although gusts to 23kts will
remain possible across E TX/N LA along/S of I-20 through 03Z.
Following the scattering post-frontal cu field this evening, look
for the cirrus shield to diminish from NW to SE through late
evening with the attendant upper trough passage, with SKC
prevailing through Sunday. /15/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  36  59  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  39  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  59  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  40  61  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  41  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  42  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126.

&&

$$

24/15



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