Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX SLOW TO WORK EASTWARD. A LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...WILL ENTER SE OK AND
THE TYLER AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS BY MIDDAY...SO KEEPING WESTERN
STRIP OF CWA FOR LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...LOWERING POPS
REMAINDER OF REGION FOR AFTN HOURS. THUS...HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTN...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AFTN HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
ABOVE 5 MILES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. AFTER 23/00Z
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN SEVERE TURBULENCE. AFTER 06Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME IFR MOST AREAS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  60  75  46  63 /  30  90  20   0  10
MLU  75  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  69  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  71  57  72  43  60 /  40  90  30   0  10
ELD  73  57  72  43  61 /  30  90  40  10  10
TYR  70  57  75  43  62 /  60  90  10   0  10
GGG  73  58  75  43  63 /  50  90  10   0  10
LFK  73  59  77  46  64 /  50  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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