Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 311704
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /   5  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /   5  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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