Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271126
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This morning surface high pressure over the Southeast States
in combination with surface low pressure over the plains continued
to supply low level moisture into the central sections of the
country. This moisture will combine with a series of upper level
disturbances and additional moisture associated with a closed
upper low pressure system over the Southern Rockies to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Four
State Region today and into tonight. A slight risk for severe
thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight with the main
threats being large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado...mainly over parts of Southeast Oklahoma, East and
Northeast Texas, and a small part of Southwest Arkansas. Due to
the high precipitable water values, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible and may produce ponding of water and could lead to
flash flooding. A tight pressure gradient between the surface high
to the East and the surface low pressure system to the Northwest
will produce strong and gusty winds beginning during the mid to
late morning and lingering into the middle of the evening. the
Southerly winds will be reaching 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts to
30 to 35 MPH before diminishing in the evening. Have issued a Lake
Wind Advisory for the Four State Region. The upper low will be
lifting out into the Central and Northern Plains late Saturday
and becomes an open wave taking most of its energy away for our
area and will not provide a necessary push to send a cold front
into the area. However after a brief lowering the of the rain
chances in the middle of the weekend, another in a series of
disturbances will be moving into the region ahead of our next
closing upper low over Southern CA. This next upper low/trough
will be slow to exit the Southwest section of the country and
Northern Mexico keeping an unsettled weather pattern for the
forecast area into next week. A Northern Stream upper low
pressure system will shift east across the Canadian and Northern
U.S.border region helping nudge a cold front into the county
warning area during mid to late week that will become nearly
stationary providing a focus for convection with disturbances
associated with the Southwest tracking upper low. Model data hints
that the closed low will rotate around over Texas keeping a wet
and cooler pattern through the weekend. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Convection has weakened and shift to the south and east of the
area. Wake low winds have developed at a few locations which
mainly consist of mainly southerly winds increasing suddenly just
as rain diminishes...with gusts of 30 to over 40 kts. Attm, these
winds indicated off of radar to be occurring over Natchitoches
parish. Ambient winds have decreased to around 5 kts from s-se
with exception of south winds 10 to 15 kts over portions of ne tx.
Intense line segments with copious lightning and likely stg winds
will slowly shift eastward overnight, into ne tx btwn 27/14-16z
and spreading to kshv and ktxk by 27/18z, and then into keld and
kmlu around 27/20z. strongest storms will likely occur over ne
tx/se ok with downburst wind excessive lightning. low lvl shear
may also support rotating storms in very unstable airmass as well.
sfc winds 15 to 20 kts most of area durg daytime and into eve with
winds over ne tx possibly 20 to 25 kts. Convection should move out
of ne tx by 28/00z, and weaken further east by around
28/03z./vii/.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  86  69 /  90  60  30  20
MLU  84  69  86  69 /  80  50  50  10
DEQ  79  67  85  68 /  90  50  30  30
TXK  81  69  86  68 /  90  60  30  30
ELD  81  69  85  68 /  90  60  50  10
TYR  82  71  87  70 /  90  50  30  20
GGG  82  71  86  70 /  90  60  30  10
LFK  83  72  88  70 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

06/19


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