Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231119
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
Increased low level moisture over the last 12 hours or so is
leading to visibility starting to fall at kmlu, ktxk and klfk,
though still vfr at this time. keld visibility has been
intermittently falling to ifr. For those terminals without fog,
mvfr cigs will be a possibility before scouring out by mid-morning.
Have tried to determine best timing for fog and/or low clouds
where appropriate for this taf cycle, but will of course amend as
necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge remains anchored across the region this morning
and shows no signs of relenting attm. At the surface, southerly
winds have aided in dew points quickly rebounding into the low to
mid 70s along and south of the I-20 corridor with areas farther
north soon to follow. The very moist conditions near the surface
will lead to some patchy fog forming this morning, but expect it
to diminish quickly upon sunrise. Cumulus will return area wide
today after being noticeably absent for much of this week, but
convection is not anticipated for most of the area as the ridge
will suppress development. However, some sea breeze activity is
likely to affect parts of deep east Texas and possibly as far
north as I-20 later this afternoon so have included slight chance
pops for these areas in east Texas through early evening. Low to
mid 90s will be common for highs once again this afternoon with
drier air aloft mixing down to the surface so this will keep heat
index readings from running much above ambient temperatures.

The weekend is still shaping up similar to the status quo in the
temperature department but with some improved rain chances. The
well-advertised long wave upper trough continues to dig across
the intermountain West toward the Rockies, becoming more amplified
and quite strong by late September standards. However, models have
really come into better agreement and aren`t nearly as bullish on
eventual rain chances or strong push of cooler air by early next
week simply because of the strength of the upper ridge, which will
effectively force the main energy with the trough northward across
the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. In response, both the
GFS and Euro are resolving this by developing a closed low farther
south near the desert SW and northern Mexico and then retrograde
it back over Baja. The end result just puts our region in between
and makes the forecast a bit more uncertain. Suffice it to say, we
can still expect a cold front to bring in some much needed relief
in the form of more fall-like temperatures by Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be increasing along and ahead of the front
through the early part of next week as temperatures remain slightly
below normal. Upper ridge will set up shop once again by mid week
and send temperatures climbing back to near seasonal climo. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
MLU  93  71  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  71  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  91  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  20
ELD  91  71  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  91  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  20
GGG  92  73  92  72 /  20  10  20  20
LFK  91  74  91  73 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/19



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