Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 211514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING TO REMOVE NOW EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM FCST. VSBYS
AT 9 AM HAVE IMPROVED TO AT LEAST 3 MILES OR GREATER AT MOST OBS
LOCATIONS. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH. HOWEVER...TRICKY PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL WARRANT MONITORING TEMP
TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN AFTER 22/06Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS. COULD SEE WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS TYR/GGG OVERNIGHT. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX/W LA SOUTH
OF I-20. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING EWD INTO OUR AREA FROM
OK/TX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...WHICH HAS SERVED AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DENSE FOG. MANY SITES WHICH EARLIER REPORTED
VSBYS BELOW 1/4 SM ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE STRATUS
ARRIVED. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HRS. WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY
IF VSBYS IMPROVE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TROUGH
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA AND MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LVL
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SLY
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS E TX AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER
CNTRL TX AND COLD FRONT SHARPENS A BIT TO OUR NW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO SE OF A LINE FROM NATCHITOCHES TO MONROE ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD.

THE SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFT NEWD
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL BE LAGGING WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LVL AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC
BASED VERSUS ARCTIC. HOWEVER...AMPLIFIED NLY MID LVL FLOW LOOKS TO
BRING SOME COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. THIS
SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NORTH OF
I-30 WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ONE OF TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN...EITHER LOW LVL DRY SLOTTING
WILL OCCUR OR SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO
SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO JUST MENTION RAIN IN
THE FCST FOR NOW. EVEN IF WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
LIKELY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ALSO FOR WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA/NW CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
RESULTING STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR TO MUCH OF
THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BITTERLY COLD IN
OUR REGION BUT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN SHORT...SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A CHILLY
END TO THIS YEAR. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  45  66  53  57 /  10  10  20  40  50
MLU  58  44  64  55  65 /  10  10  20  40  60
DEQ  54  42  60  45  51 /  10  10  20  40  40
TXK  56  44  62  49  52 /  10  10  20  40  50
ELD  57  43  62  51  59 /  10  10  20  40  60
TYR  57  46  65  50  53 /  10  10  10  30  30
GGG  58  45  66  51  54 /  10  10  10  30  40
LFK  61  46  69  55  59 /  10  10  10  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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