Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310743
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
LARGE RAIN SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO NE TX AND NW LA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE WAS APPROACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS OF 07Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW
ACROSS N TX WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR A SJT...FST LINE. A
SLOW RETURNING WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX
TO JUST WEST OF A TYR/LFK/LCH LINE. FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR THIS
WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

AS OF 07Z...CEILINGS REMAIN VFR ATTM WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS
AROUND 5KFT UNDERNEATH THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WITH MUCH HIGHER
CEILINGS NEAR 10KFT AT THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...ENCOMPASSING
MORE OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
THE TOP DOWN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CEILING WISE BY LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX/NW LA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND IF WE CAN SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SSE AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT THE ELD/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WIND SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NNW BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRI AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WITH
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL SHIFT EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE 12Z FRI TIMEFRAME
AT THE SHV/LFK TERMINALS.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  69  83  69  87 /  50  40  30  20  20
MLU  82  67  83  68  87 /  50  40  40  30  30
DEQ  72  64  80  65  85 /  60  20  20  10  10
TXK  77  64  81  67  86 /  60  30  20  10  10
ELD  77  64  82  66  86 /  60  40  30  10  20
TYR  83  68  84  70  88 /  50  30  20  10  10
GGG  82  68  83  69  88 /  50  40  20  10  10
LFK  90  72  87  71  90 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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