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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190229
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
929 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has diminished across the region this evening, leaving
only partly cloudy skies behind. Min temps tonight look to fall
only into the low to mid 70s areawide, as moisture continues to
increase and low level clouds develop as a result. Fcst appears to
be reasonably on track, so no changes are expected attm. Will,
however, resend some products to update wording. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 759 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 19/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR until after
19/07Z. The current convection has been decreasing across
East Texas and Northwest Louisiana so have removed mention in
the evening terminals as the weak upper level low weakens and
afternoon heating has abated. Flight categories return to MVFR
over Deep East Texas and Lower Northwest Louisiana between
19/06Z-19/09Z due to the combination of low level moisture from
locally heavy rainfall Monday afternoon and evening and light
surface winds overnight, but boundary layer winds and above that
become stronger will be helping with formation of lower clouds and
mist/BR. These conditions will spread over remaining sections of
the forecast area from Southwest to Northeast between 19/09Z-
19/12Z. IFR conditions will develop after 19/09Z-19/12Z as the
clouds and mist/BR increase over the region with fog?FG possible
before daybreak with visibility restrictions below one mile
possible. MVFR flight categories will return by mid morning as the
fog/FG mixes our and clouds lift, with VFR conditions expected by
late morning to mid day Tuesday. Clouds and ceilings look to
return to 4-5 KFT with higher mainly cirrus near 25 KFT from late
morning to the late afternoon. Surface winds will be light and
variable to light South overnight retiring to South to Southwest
5-10 knots around and after 19/15Z with higher speeds over East
and Northeast Texas to 7-13 knots. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Short wave slowly moving east across southern AR with convection
movg east of area, and weak frontal boundary retreating nwd as
well. Meanwhile, deeper moisture with dewpoints in mid 70s over
east TX and scattered convection over se TX spreading nwd into
this area. Will keep isold early eve pops for se half of cwa as
recent trends have had convection dissipating by sunset. Fcst
trend in fairly homogeneous airmass is for fairly steady
dewpoints and lapse rates and thus little overall change in pops
or diurnal cycles for the next couple of days. However, and
increased sea breeze contribution may increasingly push pops into
at least low end chance category for southern portions of the
cwa. As long wave upper trough over western states tightens up by
the weekend upper ridge may actually become more defined over the
area with pops remaining isold at best, and at least lower 90 aftn
temps becoming more widespread across area. Models also
indicating a slowing trend for stnry cold front embedded in this
upper trof to make any progress towards the area in the early part
of next week. Have added overnight fog to areas south of I-30
where dewpoints have not mixed out and see no reason why fog will
not be as prevalent, if not slightly more so, that last
night. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  74  91 /  10  30  20  20
MLU  74  91  73  90 /  10  30  20  30
DEQ  71  93  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  73  94  74  91 /  10  20  10  20
ELD  72  92  73  90 /  10  30  20  20
TYR  74  93  75  91 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  74  92  74  91 /  10  20  10  20
LFK  75  93  74  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/06/07