Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SQ LINE IS E OF THE MS RIVER WITH A BACK EDGE OF RAINFALL
JUST PASSING KSHV NOW...FROM NEAR KELD...TO KBAD...TO KLFK. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LINE...STRONG LL WINDS ARE AFFECTING KSHV WITH OUR
VAD PROFILER DECREASING NOW TO 20KTS...WHERE 35KTS AT 1KFT HAS
BEEN STEADY FOR A THE LAST HR. OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS RETURNING WIND AS THE RAIN ENDS. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS
08-16Z WITH VFR 16-18Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 5-15KTS FOR
TUESDAY. ALOFT...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE W 25-45KTS AND BACK TO S/SW
ABV 15KFT INCREASING TO 60KTS BY FL300.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER
THE EASTERN PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A
TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE PERTUBATIONS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOF. THESE DISTURBANES ALONG WITH A DEEP AND RICH
SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR FRESH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HIGH
AND DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES. MUCH OF THE AREA WEST
OF A TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND NACOGDOCHES
TEXAS LINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER INTO THE NIGHT THE
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SWINGS EAST AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER THE NEXT
IN A CONTINUED STREAM OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
SHOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEE THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
KEEPING A WET PATTERN GOING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  70  87  70 /  40  30  40  20
MLU  82  70  87  70 /  60  30  40  20
DEQ  81  68  84  68 /  30  40  40  30
TXK  84  69  86  69 /  40  30  40  30
ELD  83  70  86  69 /  50  30  40  30
TYR  84  71  86  70 /  30  30  30  20
GGG  85  70  87  70 /  30  30  30  20
LFK  86  71  88  71 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06



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