488
FXUS64 KSHV 121754 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - An uptick in convective coverage is expected this afternoon and
   evening across the Four State Region and that will likely
   continue into Sunday as well.

 - Rain chances diminish through midweek.

 - An easterly wave in the gulf could introduce uncertainty in
   regards to temps and rain chances late in the workweek.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

An upper-level trough across the Red River Valley of north Texas
will bring scattered convection to the the ArkLaTex this
afternoon into this evening. Some strong storms with gusty winds,
small hail, and locally heavy rainfall may be possible across
mainly the I-30 corridor. Elsewhere, most convection this
afternoon into this evening will be diurnally generated as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with possible seabreeze
forcing.

With the upper-trough remaining nearly stationary through the
weekend into early next week across the Red River Valley,
increased instability to continue across the I-30 corridor. Model
discrepancies have led to uncertainty regarding timing and
placement of periodic mesoscale convective clusters supportive of
heavy rainfall. Due to the dynamically shifting model trends
regarding timing of convection, went ahead and incorporated a
generalized wet bias across these areas through early next week.

Pattern begins to shift through the upcoming workweek as as an
upper-ridge to the east retrogrades west across the ArkLaTex.
Rain chances to diminish significantly from Tuesday into Wednesday
with subsidence from the ridge to drive afternoon temperatures
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Uncertainty creeps back
into the forecast late in the workweek as models are beginning to
diverge over a disturbance in the Gulf of America that may bring
unsettled weather to the ArkLaTex on Thursday into Friday. Should
the ridge instead hold across the ArkLaTex, hotter and drier
conditions to prevail. Will have to wait for later model runs to
offer more certainty regarding the the long-term forecast period.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon through a portion of
tonight, although scattered convection has developed early this
afternoon across the region, which may result in localized areas
of MVFR cigs and reduced vsbys in/near the convection. Have
inserted VCTS for much of the afternoon/early evening for all
terminals, with tempo thunder mention for locally gusty winds
near/in excess of 30kts, reduced vsbys, and the lower cigs. The
convection should mostly diminish by mid-evening, but may persist
through the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours over
portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, primarily NNW of
the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals. While the residual convective debris
should diminish by late evening, low MVFR cigs should again
develop after 09Z Sunday over much of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR/NW
LA, and spread NNE across the remainder of the area after
daybreak. These cigs should slowly lift by mid to late morning,
with VFR cigs returning by the end of the TAF period. Additional
scattered convection should again develop over much of the area
Sunday afternoon. SSW winds 8-12kts with higher gusts in/near the
convection, will become S 3-7kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening which
could produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that could
result in localized flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  77  95  77 /  50  30  40  20
MLU  96  74  96  76 /  40  30  40  10
DEQ  91  71  90  71 /  50  70  70  30
TXK  95  75  95  75 /  40  50  40  30
ELD  93  73  94  73 /  40  30  40  20
TYR  93  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  20
GGG  93  74  94  74 /  50  30  40  20
LFK  93  74  94  74 /  50  10  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15