Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
522 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KMLU. MORE EXTENSIVE TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MS
RIVER...COULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
30/18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVER NE TX. INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS FROM WEST..MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FOG...TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 31/06Z
TONIGHT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  61  82  61 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  78  58  80  60 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  77  58  78  59 /  10  20  30  20
TXK  77  59  79  60 /  10  20  30  20
ELD  77  58  78  60 /  20  20  30  20
TYR  80  62  82  62 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  80  61  82  61 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  84  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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