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000
FXUS64 KSHV 242106
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
406 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery indicates drier air quickly spilling south
from the Plains into our northern CWA as convection has really
struggled to get going this afternoon after overnight/morning
showers and storms were able to stabilize the atmosphere across
much of the region. Isolated to widely scattered convection is
just about all that can be expected for the remainder of this
afternoon through this evening as the upper level disturbance
slowly begins to lift out of the region. Meanwhile, the upper
ridge to our west is already showing signs of nosing back east,
well indicated by the drier air which is quickly overtaking our
far NW zones this afternoon. It probably goes without saying, but
this development is certain to push our daytime temperatures back
into the lower to mid 90s for the remainder of this week. For now,
it appears we may skate by without a heat advisory for Tuesday
but will likely need to issue for both Wednesday and Thursday at
a minimum, possibly beyond that into Friday depending on how fast
the ridge begins its westward retreat late this week through the
weekend.

Medium range guidance is still favoring this retreat of the ridge
with a broad upper trough spilling south across nearly all of the
eastern U.S. this weekend. This trough coupled with the retreating
ridge will allow for a rare summertime cold front to advance into
the region and put these heat advisories to bed for a while with
temperatures much more tolerable heading into next week. In fact,
we may even see below normal readings for a few days with upper
80s to lower 90s for highs. Morning temperatures should really be
nice both Sunday and Monday with mid and upper 60s to around 70
degrees likely almost all of the region, certainly a very unusual
way to wrap up the month of July but no complaints to be sure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Large area of showers with isolated thunderstorms have decreased
in coverage over the last several hours mainly south of the I-20
Corridor this morning. Further development of these showers along
with isolated thunderstorms is difficult to pin down as abundant
mid and high level cloud cover will limit heating which would
certainly be tied to renewed convective development. For the 18z
taf package, did prevail VCSH across all but the TXK/ELD terminal
locations through the remainder of the afternoon hours with a
tempo group for the possibility of -TSRA. Terminals which are MVFR
should climb to VFR later this aftn.

Overnight, dropped all mention of SHRA or TSRA with mid and high
level cloud cover thinning, especially during the predawn and post
dawn hours Tuesday morning from west to east across our terminal
airspace. Mid and high level cloud cover should remaining ovhd
tonight should limit any vsby concerns overnight but did mention
some MVFR vsby restrictions at MLU/TXK/LFK and ELD terminals
towards sunrise Tue morning just in case.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  75  95 /  30  10   0  10
MLU  75  94  74  96 /  30  20   0  10
DEQ  73  93  73  95 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  74  94  74  95 /  30  10   0  10
ELD  74  94  73  95 /  30  20   0  10
TYR  75  94  75  95 /  30  10   0  10
GGG  74  93  74  96 /  30  10   0  10
LFK  75  93  74  95 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13