Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220448
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRO THE MOST PART THRU FCST
PERIOD. LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN LA THIS AFTN...WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. ANY
PATCHY FOG OVER KELD AND KMLU WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS STILL OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES. MVFR CIGS MAY SKIRT TERMINAL
SITES IN NE TX AFTER 22/10Z. SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD OF 5 TO 10
KTS MAY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...AND RETURN DURG THE DAYTIME FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT THE RAIN DID LOWER TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS BUT TONIGHT`S
FORECAST MINS LOOK OK. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE CENTER OF THAT RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
WEST...EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENN VALLEY. A WEAK TUTT LOW SHOULD
SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION IN THE TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS ARE THEY IN THE WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST AS WE BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH IT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVHD WHICH WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE RAW
2M MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WELL OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF...SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF OUR REGION FROM HITTING
THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND. HAVING SAID THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRAY LOCATION SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. OF MORE
IMPORTANCE WILL BE HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF...IF NOT THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  95  73  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  94  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  76  97  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  97  75  97  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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