Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241154 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the 24/12Z TAF period.
Areas of AC/cirrus will continue to develop this morning over the
region as a weak upper level trough drifts SW into Srn AR/N LA
today. Brief low MVFR cigs may develop through 15Z over Deep E
TX/Cntrl LA...with the diurnal cu field expected to develop again
areawide by midday. Already seeing the development of isolated
convection over NE LA/Wrn MS about 40NM SE of MLU...with sct
convection expected to develop farther N across Scntrl AR/Ncntrl
LA by 18Z near the upper trough. Have continued mention of VCTS by
midday for the ELD/MLU terminals...with this convection expected
to expand/shift SW again into SW AR/NW LA by mid to late afternoon
affecting the TXK/SHV terminals after 20Z. The E TX terminals
could be affected by this convection by/after 00Z Monday...before
diminishing late. Gusty winds in excess of 35kts...low MVFR
cigs...reduced VSBYS and svr turbulence will be possible this
afternoon/evening in/near the convection. Should see elevated cigs
in convective debris linger over the region overnight...although
additional convection may redevelop late over portions of Wrn
LA/adjacent E TX near the trough itself as it continues to slowly
drift WSW. Have added VCSH for SHV late in the period...with the
convection expected to expand/shift W into E TX just after the end
of the TAF period. Light W winds this morning will become Lt/Vrb
this afternoon once the convection develops. Lt/vrb or Lt SE winds
are expected after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Calm or a light South wind is keeping station on muggy Gulf air.
Models mix out over parts of I-30, but this is where highest
readings are going to be located this afternoon and result is
still around 105 on heat index readings. We have the entire Four
State Area in today`s heat advisory from 10am through 7pm.
Yesterday we even had some excessive readings in the wake of
rainfall at a few sites. Weak surface high will keep to our NE and
keep the upper ridge to our West. This will keep the disturbances
pulsing overhead and afternoon rain coverage on the increase
through Monday. The chance for mid to late day Thunderstorms will
linger for much of the coming work week. Hopefully we can see some
closer to normal readings and less advisory area as a result. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  92  76 /  40  30  60  30
MLU  94  76  92  75 /  60  30  60  20
DEQ  98  76  93  74 /  30  30  50  20
TXK  96  76  92  75 /  40  30  50  20
ELD  95  76  91  75 /  60  30  60  20
TYR  99  78  92  76 /  20  20  60  30
GGG  98  77  91  75 /  30  30  60  30
LFK  98  77  92  74 /  30  30  60  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15


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