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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191845
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
145 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 19/18Z TAF period, a mix of MVFR/low VFR conditions across
our terminals this afternoon as weak frontal boundary pushes south
of the I-20 corridor. A few showers and even a stray thunderstorm
will be possible through the remainder of today as the front sags
farther south. Winds are light and variable along and ahead of the
front, shifting NW/N/NE following fropa with speeds averaging near
5 kts. Gradual clearing should occur later this evening on through
the overnight hours as drier airmass filters across our Ark-La-Tex
terminals. Some patchy fog and even low stratus is possible at LFK
closer to the front around daybreak on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect
some spotty cu to develop late in the period as lingering boundary
layer moisture will be enough to lift into a cu field with heating
by late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday. NE winds will also
increase to around 10 kts as well by 20/15Z with afternoon gusts.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Showers dissipating quickly this morning in advance and in the
wake of a slow moving cold front which as of 15z was located just
to the north of the I-20 Corridor. More organized convection
formed across North Central Texas overnight and propagated due
south towards the greatest sfc instability axis and mid and high
level cloud cover did not enable the atmosphere to retain much if
any of its instability across our region. As a result, much of our
region missed out on the expected rainfall and this will likely
hamper the possibility of further development this afternoon along
the cold front as it moves south of the I-20 Corridor.

The best possibility of this happening will be across our
southeast zones so for the morning update, have lowered pops to
slight chance variety just behind the front and low end chance
variety along and south of the Corridor for the remainder of the
day, going just a little higher across our southeast zones. Also
cloud cover will limit daytime heating today so adjusted our
extreme southern zones downward a few degrees as blow off is
quickly moving into that region. Left fcst max temps as they are
across the remainder of our region.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  70  91  70 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  86  70  90  70 /  30  20  10  10
DEQ  86  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  85  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  84  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
TYR  86  70  91  70 /  30  10  10  10
GGG  86  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  89  73  92  71 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13