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000
FXUS64 KSHV 150935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY
LIGHT NWLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW OK. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF NIGHTTIME COOLING AHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
OR COME VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
AREA AS WELL. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED E AND N OF A LINE FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO
LA SALLE PARISH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS BULK OF THE COLD
AIR SHOULD BE WELL NE OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL BE MORE ELY/SELY
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THE CHILLY
NIGHTS...DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FROPA TIMING AND QPF LIKELY BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SWLY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A TSTM COMPLEX OUT OF
W TX AND EWD ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT FCST BY THE ECMWF BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS SELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD USUALLY LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEHIND ANY OF THESE COLD FRONTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  36  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
MLU  60  33  63  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  61  32  66  38  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
TXK  59  36  65  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ELD  58  32  62  41  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  62  36  66  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
GGG  61  34  65  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
LFK  62  34  69  49  72 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

09/13