Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 020839
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
339 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WORKING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE RISK AREA INTO THE MARGINAL
CATEGORY...AND SVR WATCH 137 IS NOW OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD. OUR
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT...COOLING OUR TEMPS DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL AND FINALLY BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AN END.

LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD BY MIDWEEK...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION AS IT
BECOMES SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO
THE CA COAST. THIS WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED PD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
TEMPS WILL SNAP BACK UP TO NEAR AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND SUNSHINE
PLENTY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST BY THE END OF THE PD
AND BEYOND...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...AS SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR AND E OF A
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A LFK...TO SHV...ELD LINE
AS OF 05Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GR...WITH GUSTY WINDS/EXTREME TURBULENCE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH TEMPO MENTION OF TSRA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY SE OF A TYR TO TXK LINE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE W /OVER
ECNTRL OK/N TX/...WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
FROM THE W. THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE REINFORCED SE LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY EVEN AFTER ITS DEPARTURE BY MIDDAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER 18Z AS WELL...WITH CIGS SCATTERING
OUT/BECOMING VFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNW
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  53  73  54 /  50  10  10   0
MLU  74  57  74  53 /  70  20  10   0
DEQ  72  48  72  49 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  72  51  71  52 /  50  10  10   0
ELD  72  53  73  52 /  60  10  10   0
TYR  71  50  72  54 /  40  10  10   0
GGG  72  51  72  53 /  50  10  10   0
LFK  73  54  74  53 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



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