Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 242113
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
313 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Line of storms associated with a shortwave and cold front
continue to march ewd this aftn, posing a threat for damaging
winds and flash flooding thus far. Front/storms to continue esewd
this evening, slowing progress some as the shortwave embedded in
overall cyclonic flow lifts newd and away from our region this
evening. This should also limit further the potential for severe
weather and flash flooding. Will likely be making some changes to
the Tornado and Flash Flood watches, especially in the wake of the
line, before issuing final products this aftn.

Line of storms will move e of our region late tonight, but the
cold front will stall across our srn areas, as swly flow aloft
remains even in the wake of the shortwave. Another disturbance
will interact with the boundary Sunday, bringing shwrs and tstms
back to portions of the region /mainly along and s of I-20/. This
convection should depart to the e prior to sunrise Monday as sfc high
pressure builds in over the region. Unclear as to whether clouds
will diminish for Monday, as weak isentropic lift will still be in
place. Nevertheless, Tuesday will bring a surge of moisture/clouds
as the boundary lifts back nwd as a warm front. Convection will
overspread the region by late Tuesday and likely bring heavy rain
and potentially flash flooding back to the region through
Wednesday. Models in better agreement today with respect to the
timing/evolution of this system, sending a line of strong
/possibly severe/ storms through our region along a cold front to
finish out the event.

Strong sfc ridge in the wake of the front late Wednesday/early
Thursday along with a brief visit from the upper ridge over the
central CONUS will keep us dry through the remainder of the fcst
pd. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1209 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 24/18z TAFs, a band of intense convection will move across
the region during the next 24 hours impacting all TAF sites.
Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times. The main
convective line is quickly developing across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northeast Texas, and widespread showers are ongoing well ahead of
it across Southern Arkansas and into Western Louisiana. The main
convective complex will move across the area ahead of a cold
front. Expect deteriorating ceilings and visibilities as
terminals begin to be affected by precip. Ahead of the cold front
and thunderstorms, south winds will prevail and may gust up to 30
kts at times. After the frontal passage, winds will shift to the
north and thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish. Flight
conditions should also quickly improve into the VFR range by
25/12z.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  63  48  69 /  80  40  20  10
MLU  54  62  49  70 /  90  60  50  10
DEQ  39  63  40  69 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  45  62  42  68 /  30  20  10   0
ELD  46  62  44  69 /  80  30  20   0
TYR  48  66  47  69 /  20  30  10  10
GGG  49  65  47  70 /  40  30  10  10
LFK  55  61  50  72 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ060-061-
     070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

12/CN


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