Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 230500
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
For the ArkLaTex, high pressure over AR is drying the air from NE
to SW. Overnight cirrus from TSTMS in W OK/TX will thicken
overhead. Toward daybreak some brief BR may crop up, but overall
another Chamber day to start the week. S/SE winds will lift in as
the high slowly exits stage right. Aloft, we still have 5-6kft
deep of light Ely winds 10-20kts and then back to NW/W 20-40kts on
up. This time tomorrow SE flow will deepen to 12kft under the NW
flow. Outlook is for increasing coverage of late day convection
each day into this new work week...some nocturnal too. /24/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1014 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
Decided to lower Dew points and Min temperatures across SW Arkansas,
North Louisiana, and Central Louisiana...as drier air and cooler
temperatures have moved into those areas. Other than that, the
rest of the forecast looks on track for the overnight period.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 60s tonight across
the region...with possible upper 50s across portions of SW
Arkansas and NE Louisiana. Cirrus from Tstms across western
Oklahoma/Texas will move into the western half of the region
during the overnight period, which will keep lows in the upper 60s
across portions of East Texas. Winds will remain out of the ESE
near 5 mph. /20/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
An active weather pattern expected late this week and through
much of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...
The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging
aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
This ridging should only support widely sct shower tstm development
by Thursday...a seasonably strong negative tilt shortwave will eject
from sw to ne from nm with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through Friday morning. Accordingly expect some storms to
become severe although the storm threat details are too far in the
future to forecast at this time.
Active weather remains in the forecast for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend of May with severe weather and heavy rainfall quite possible.
These threats will be better defined later this final week of May.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 65 85 70 87 / 10 20 20 30
MLU 61 85 67 88 / 10 20 20 30
DEQ 62 82 67 83 / 20 30 20 30
TXK 63 83 68 85 / 10 20 20 30
ELD 58 84 66 86 / 10 20 20 30
TYR 68 85 71 85 / 20 30 20 30
GGG 67 84 69 86 / 10 30 20 30
LFK 68 85 70 86 / 20 30 20 30