Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270410
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Some isolated showers have developed over the last hour to the
west of the TXK terminal and in the vicinity of the LFK terminal.
this activity likely developed along residual outflow boundaries
from previous convection that are not in close proximity to our
radar where they could be detected. A quick check of SPC`s Mosaic
Meso Analysis page showing that with very high dewpoints in place
currently...we are still seeing MUCAPE values near 3-3.5 J/KG so
there is still plenty of instability for isolated showers or
thunderstorms to develop on but will have to account for this with
an amendment overnight if necessary. Otherwise...little change
from the previous 00z TAF thinking.

Convection should become scattered in nature during the daytime
hours on Monday and thus...kept VCTS mention at all terminals
through much of the day into the early evening hours Monday.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The loss of heating has resulted in late afternoon/early evening
convection rapidly fading along with much of the cloud cover as
well. Therefore, have removed pops across the board for the rest
of the overnight hours as weak upper level ridge continues to
steer additional convection north of the region tonight. Other
elements of the forecast look to be well on track so will not be
making any additional changes at this time. Updated text products
have already been sent. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  76  91 /  10  30  30  50
MLU  77  93  75  90 /  10  40  40  60
DEQ  73  92  73  92 /  10  40  40  40
TXK  76  93  74  91 /  10  30  40  40
ELD  75  92  73  90 /  10  40  40  50
TYR  76  93  75  93 /  10  30  20  50
GGG  75  93  74  91 /  10  30  20  50
LFK  75  94  74  92 /  10  30  20  60

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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