Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 200839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
339 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Upper trof continues to move across the Plains this morning,
driving a cold front into N TX/SE OK. Convection associated with
this trof/front is all post-frontal, and has continued to lose
intensity over the last few hours. Broken line of post-frontal
shwrs/tstms will continue to move sewd across our region today.
Daytime heating may provide just enough instability across our
extreme sern areas for an isold strong to severe storm or two,
with dmg winds/hail the expected threats. Elsewhere, severe
potential will be limited by the elevated nature of the storms and
lack of heating due to cloud cover ahead of the front. Storms will
move out of our area/diminish by this evening. In addition to
storms, gusty post-frontal winds will usher in a much cooler
airmass, which will keep our temps across much of the region in
the 70s today. Some areas across our NW, where skies are likely to
clear later today, may see winds at or exceeding Lake Wind
Advisory criteria by this afternoon. Have gone ahead and included
the advisory in this package, which will be in effect from 1-7 pm.

High pressure will settle into the region overnight tonight into
Friday, with NW flow aloft to overtake the srn CONUS in the wake
of the trof. This will guarantee crystal clear skies and cool
temps, especially Saturday morning. However, temps will begin a
warming trend Saturday, and we will see our temps creep back up
above normal next work week, as weak wly flow aloft and sly
return flow at the sfc take hold. The good news is that despite
being above normal, temps will top out some 10 degrees cooler
than what we have seen over the last week or so. The lack of any
significant disturbances will keep our fcst dry through the end
of the pd. /12/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

Still seeing some elevated cu develop late this evening over
portions of E TX/NW LA/SW AR...and this trend should continue
overnight and possibly fill in some as a cold front begins to
enter the region after 09Z from N TX/SE OK. Some low MVFR cigs
may develop after 09Z over E TX/N LA ahead of the front...which
should spread NE into SW AR just prior to daybreak. Extensive
areas of convection ongoing attm across SE OK along and just
behind the front should continue to shift SE overnight...possibly
reaching the TXK/TYR terminals by 12Z...and possibly affecting the
ELD/SHV terminals between 14-16Z. This convection should weaken
by/shortly after daybreak given the weakening frontal
forcing...thus have only maintained VCTS with tempo thunder
mention for the TYR/GGG terminals only. Otherwise...have tempoed
SHRA mention in for the mid/late morning hours for ELD/SHV...and
maintained VCSH mention for LFK/MLU which the SHRA quickly
diminishing from NW to SE by late morning/early afternoon. MVFR
cigs near/just behind the front should lift/become VFR by
midday/early afternoon...scattering out as the dry air deepens
in wake of the fropa. Should see any residual cu/cirrus diminish
by/shortly after 00Z Friday...with SKC expected over much of the
region by the end of the TAF period. Light SSW winds tonight will
become NNW and increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts especially
over E TX/SW AR/Wrn LA. /15/


SHV  76  55  73  48 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  80  53  72  44 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  74  46  72  42 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  71  47 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  74  49  69  43 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  76  52  73  48 /  60   0   0   0
GGG  75  51  72  47 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  78  53  75  47 /  50  10   0   0


TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136.



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