Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



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