Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231802
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD ENDING 24/18Z. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN
AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A KTXK...KSHV... KJSO LINE. AREAS NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE
WILL BE CLEARING. ICING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS WITH RAIN...
WITH FREEZING LEVELS RANGING FROM NEAR 2 KFT IN DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA...TO AROUND 3 KFT ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA AND SW
ARKANSAS. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DEEP EAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
AT CLOUD BASE LEVELS. BY 03Z...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WIND NORTH TO NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SLEET PELLETS/SNOW GRAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS TX. WE SHOULD SEE THIS PRECIP TAPER OFF
TODAY...AS THE TROF CONTINUES EWD AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY BECOMES
CUT OFF. FOR THE UPDATE...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PATCHY
CLEARING ACROSS OUR NWRN AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT IT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DRY SLOTTING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED IT VERY WELL.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP KEEPING THE
VAST MAJORITY OF IT SE OF A KJSO-KELD LINE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES WHICH SHOW THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR HEADING NEWD TOWARDS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS
FAR NORTH AS I-30 AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO AND SFC TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES F.
ANY SNOW THAT MAY BE FALLING WILL MOST LIKELY MELT IN THIS LOWEST
LAYER PRIOR TO REACHING THE SFC. LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING SOME
LOCATIONS IN E TX HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 30S. THEREFORE...A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM TYLER AND MARSHALL TX TO MAGNOLIA AR...BUT WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING NO ACCUMULATIONS AND NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
ALL LIQUID RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WLY
WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK WARMING TREND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE 60 DEGREES AREAWIDE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
HARDLY ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT SO THE
ONLY REAL EFFECT ON TEMPS WILL BE TO HALT THE WARMING TREND AND
GENERALLY HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION KEEPING A PERSISTENCE
FCST IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION BACK TO NWLY AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CWA AND BECOMES STATIONARY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  32  57  37  65 /  50  10   0   0   0
MLU  43  32  57  37  64 /  50  30   0   0   0
DEQ  48  28  57  33  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  46  31  56  36  63 /  40  10   0   0   0
ELD  43  31  57  36  62 /  50  20   0   0   0
TYR  47  33  57  37  65 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  45  32  57  36  65 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  45  35  59  37  65 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





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