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000
FXUS64 KSHV 122056
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE INCREASING CIRRUS WHICH HAS OVERTAKEN
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CIRRUS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH IS CUT OFF OVER NRN MEXICO AND HELPING PROVIDE W/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SCNTRL CONUS. MUCH OF THIS CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND USHERS IN A DRY N/NW FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING E/SE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE NEAR PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR 50 DEGREES
AREA WIDE ON MONDAY MORNING...EASILY SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT SE WINDS TO RETURN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO WILL GET
ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING FLOW AND SHIFT NE ACROSS TX AND OK.
COUPLED WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLD
CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. QPF
DOES LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING AND RAIN CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. HENCE...TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT DOES SEEMS A BIT MORE PROMISING
AFTER NEXT WEEKEND WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
ON BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NW MX CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION
THAT IS FIRING OVER THE NE MX MTNS. A FEW FAIR WX CU HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL LA AND SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT S AWAY FROM THE LFK TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT S LATE AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SINKS S THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW 8-12KFT
CIGS NOW OVER NE OK/EXTREME SW MO TO SHIFT SE INTO AR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPILL SE INTO PORTIONS OF SW AR AFTER
03Z...AND POSSIBLY INTO NE LA AFTER 06Z. THESE CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WHILE POSSIBLY BUILDING W
INTO NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX BY MIDMORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN AR
INTO EXTREME NE TX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT SE INTO THE MID-SOUTH
BY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH A
LIGHT SE WIND WILL RETURN TO E TX. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  48  81  54  85  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  42  82  52  85  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  51  81  58  85  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  46  80  53  84  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  52  83  60  85  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  50  82  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  50  84  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/15