Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310938
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
438 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES IS MOVING
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE ARKLATEX SEEING PREDOMINATELY HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WITH THIS CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR PRESENT ON THE
KSHV SOUNDING AT 00Z...THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY VIRGA. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME...AS THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THAT BEING SAID...SPC
KEEPS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK.

IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE...A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE THEN TAKES
AIM AT THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE ONLY TRUE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
LIFTING INTO THE REGION BY EASTER SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ABOUND WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH L/V WINDS
TONIGHT NOT VERY HELPFUL...BUT S/SW SFC WINDS TOMORROW WILL DO THE
JOB. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME BRIEF IFR/MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH ALREADY SOME BR AND MORE LIKELY WITH L/V WIND AND
TIGHT T/TD SPREADS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW TO W THEN
NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED. VERY DRY ABOVE 6KFT WITH TEMP
INVERSION AND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...BUT CIRRUS WILL LIMIT FG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  61  81  64 /  20  20  30  20
MLU  79  60  81  64 /  20  10  30  20
DEQ  78  61  78  60 /  30  20  30  20
TXK  77  61  77  63 /  30  20  30  20
ELD  77  60  80  63 /  20  20  30  20
TYR  78  62  79  64 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  78  62  80  64 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  81  63  80  65 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/24



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.