Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM WITH FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AT KLFK TERMINAL. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SUNK INTO NE TX...THE MAIN FOCUS OF SCT AFTN AND EVE TSTMS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY SWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NE OK AND NW AR ENTERING VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AT KELD AND
KMLU TERMINALS...ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE ISOLD. A WET
GROUND AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM THIS AFTN CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS REMAIN LGT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER RIDGING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY
19/00Z ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND 19/03Z ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 60S WHERE RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. THE NW
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ACTIVE AND REMAINS SO THIS MORNING WITH A NEW
CROP IN THE PLAINS MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA WITH HOPEFULLY A TIMELY
BOUNDARY IF NOTHING ELSE. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NB/KN AND CO
AND IS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BOTTLED UP FROM NM INTO TX
AND LA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OUR THINKING REMAINS WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY INTO THE COMING DAYS AS RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE SIMILAR WITH
MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED. THE COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK IS
ABOUT THE SAME ON TIMING WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  90  69  91  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEQ  89  67  89  67  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  88  67  89  69  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  89  68  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  86  70  90  70  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
GGG  88  68  90  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  85  69  90  70  92 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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