Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 201141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
541 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME MVFR...WITH A FEW BREAKS TO
VFR...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN
MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AFTER 21/06Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF SLY SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE
PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY BUT A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW.

A LARGER AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE E OF THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND
SHOULD MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DIVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
FROPA AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH
THIS EVENT.

NLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO MOVE SWD
INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
COOLDOWN FROM BEING TOO DRAMATIC BUT BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SE OK/SW AR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW INCREASES. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE
BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD
BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...SOMETHING WHICH
MANY LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE MID NOVEMBER OR
EARLIER. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  38  57  43  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
MLU  53  37  56  42  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
DEQ  51  36  53  40  59 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  51  38  54  42  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  51  35  55  41  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
TYR  52  40  57  44  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  39  57  43  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  55  39  59  44  66 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/09/09





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