Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 161534
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1034 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
NE winds ushering in lowering dewpoints. Sunny skies and very dry
air with 10 am temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s rising 12 to
15 degrees as the 10 to 15 mph winds begin to diminish this aftn
as the pres gradient relaxes. Mo update needed./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF cycle. FEW VFR CIGS
will give way to SKC while sustained northerly wind speeds
increase into the 10-15 kt range /with 15-20 kt gusts/ by late
morning/early aftn. Wind speeds will sharply decline aoa sunset
with speeds of less than 5 kts and a few terminals possibly going
calm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 158 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cooler and drier airmass continues to settle into our region this
morning in the wake of Sunday`s cold front. Sfc ridge to remain in
place under NW flow aloft through Wednesday, keeping our
temperatures below to near seasonal averages and our fcst dry.

However, upper ridging by Thursday and weak sly return flow at the
sfc will aid IN the rebound of our temps back to near and above
normal for the latter half of the work week. Considering our very
dry conditions, have even gone slightly above the blended
guidance. Upper ridge fcst to amplify over the ern CONUS as an
upper trof begins to eject Onto the Plains late in the week. SW
flow aloft will act to increase our moisture throughout the column
ahead of the trof, which is set to move into our region late
Saturday into Sunday. Models have significantly changed in that
they now are far more optimistic that we will see significant
rainfall with this trof, as it dives sewd into central TX. Have
remained conservative considering the late-fcst timeframe and the
relatively new increase in QPF, but this is indeed a promising
change. Fingers crossed that our very dry conditions will see some
relief. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  73  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  73  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  41  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  46  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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