Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1001 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ATTM EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VFR STRATOCU DECKS. MVFR DECKS WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE NWD OUT OF SE TX INTO NE TX AFTER 26/06Z...AND
THEN MORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS
AFTER AROUND 26/10Z. S-SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF
AREA...SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE MAINLY NE TX. SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FOG DEVELOPMENT RATHER LIMITED
WITH WINDS IN PLACE. CIGS BECMG SCT BY 26/15-18Z...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE PROFILES BY AFTN.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MOISTURE ONLY PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION AT
BEST...WILL NOT MENTION TSTMS IN AREAL TERMINALS THRU 27/00Z
ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO CARRY VCNTY TSTMS AFTER 27/03Z FOR
APPROACHING UPPER LVL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST FOR KTXK...KTYR...AND
KGGG. /VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS SHAPING UP IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET START TODAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED COMFORTABLY
INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...SHORT OF OUR FAR NW LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 70S. A GLANCE AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE NWD OVER OUR REGION WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PUSHING 70 DEGREES IN OVER OUR
SRN SECTIONS. THIS HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON FROM TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY EWD OVER
PARTS OF N CNTRL LA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S IN SOME
AREAS OVER DEEP E TX.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST WILL EJECT
EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY FORM LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A DRY LINE WILL BEGIN WORKING EWD OVER
WRN OK/TX AND STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE ALONG OR NEAR INTERSTATE 35 BUT THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING INTO OUR WRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACCOMPANYING
THESE STORMS.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY STALLS OUT OVER US LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OUR FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK
COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN OF NE TX/SE OK. WE WILL BE
CAREFULLY MONITORING THIS THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK GIVEN THE
VERY WET SPRING WE HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  86  69  82 /  10  20  40  70
MLU  66  84  70  81 /  10  20  20  70
DEQ  66  82  64  83 /  20  20  80  60
TXK  67  83  66  82 /  10  20  70  70
ELD  65  83  69  81 /  10  20  40  70
TYR  69  84  67  84 /  10  20  70  60
GGG  68  85  68  83 /  10  20  60  70
LFK  70  87  70  83 /  10  20  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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