Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 031628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  74  91 /  40  60  40  40
MLU  74  88  73  89 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  70  86  71  86 /  60  60  40  50
TXK  72  87  72  88 /  60  60  40  50
ELD  72  86  72  87 /  60  60  40  50
TYR  74  89  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
GGG  74  90  74  91 /  30  50  40  30
LFK  75  91  74  92 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13



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