Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 011238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

For the 01/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail as surface high
pressure dominates. Light and variable winds this morning will
begin to veer more east southeast later today as the surface high
shifts farther east. SKC conditions will likely continue areawide
through the period with mid and high clouds returning just after
daybreak on Friday and increasing throughout the day in advance of
the next major trough carving out across the southwestern CONUS.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

Starting off with cold conditions early this morning with
temperatures already as of 2 am in the 30s with many locations
only a few degrees from freezing. This due in part to clear skies
and ridging at the sfc which is resulting in premium radiational
cooling conditions. This ridge will slowly shift eastward today
allowing for a southerly component to our winds which will result
in a descent warmup this afternoon. Not quite as cold tonight as
high thin cirrus should be on the increase from the west in
response to our next big weather maker digging into the southwest

This system will become cutoff from the westerlies as it will
continue to dig into the Baja region by Friday Night. By this
time...disturbances will lift out of the base of this trough...
across the Texas Hill Country and into our region in strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft. This will result in an overrunning type
precip pattern across the Southern Plains and rain should become
widespread across most of our region...if not by Friday Night...
then definitely by Saturday. The cutoff trough is forecast to have
moved very little by 12z Sat. Meanwhile...our flow aloft becomes
even more from the southwest. This will result in a large moisture
pool source...not only from the Gulf but from the Eastern Pacific
as PWATS increase to 1.5 inches along and south of the
I-20 corridor during the day Saturday. Even though it appears that
the sfc warm front should stay south of our region through the
upcoming weekend...850mb boundary will lift northward to near the
I-20 corridor which will likely result in periods of moderate to
heavy convective rain bands associated with elevated convection
and this could produce a flooding threat. Will need to watch the
warm front south of our region however as if it were to move
further north than the models suggest...then severe thunderstorms
would certainly become possible Sat Night/Sun timeframe.

There is pretty good model consensus now with the trough
beginning to move into the SW Texas Hill Country late Sunday Night
before opening up and ejecting our way during the day Monday...
taking on a slight negative tilt as it does. The warm front we
referred to over the weekend will have its best chance to return
northward on Monday as an area of low pressure should develop
across the Northwest Gulf of Mexico and rapidly return north
northeast on Monday as the upper trough moves closer. We finally
get dry slotted in the wake of the upper trough late Monday/Monday
Night bringing an end to what will be a very wet weekend and
early next week. Forecast rainfall totals of 3-5 inches will be
likely with this overall event with some higher totals
possible...depending on just how much convection develops and
where lower level boundaries setup.

Prelims to follow...13.


SHV  64  38  65  46 /   0   0  10  80
MLU  62  34  64  45 /   0   0  10  80
DEQ  63  32  63  43 /   0   0  10  80
TXK  62  37  62  44 /   0   0  10  80
ELD  62  32  63  43 /   0   0  10  80
TYR  65  41  65  46 /   0   0  10  80
GGG  64  38  66  46 /   0   0  10  80
LFK  65  38  68  49 /   0   0  10  80




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