Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 222047
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER N LA/SW
AR AND EXTREME ERN TX...BUT AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BETWEEN 18-22Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREADS ENE. IN
FACT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER E TX/SE OK
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE
THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
07Z...CLEARING THE E TX TERMINALS BY 10Z...SHV AROUND 12Z...AND
MLU BY 15Z. SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS SW AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ONCE SW
WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTRAIN NEWD. SSE WINDS
10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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