Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221521
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1021 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains centered ovhd. 10 am temps once again nearly a
carbon copy to yesterday with readings mainly in the lower to
middle 80s. Only a few upper lvl clouds but 12z areal soundings
suggest just enough low lvl moisture for isold cu development
possible so will leave in partly cloudy wording. Isold showers
just offshore should remain well south of area this aftn. No
update needed./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing attm across all terminal locations but
cannot rule out a brief reduction in vsby across mainly the TXK/
ELD/MLU and LFK terminals before 9 am or so this morning.
Otherwise thin cirrus continues to spill across the region from
the north this morning. Starting to see some low level return flow
across S LA this morning and the latest progs show at least a cu
field returning to our southern zones later today which would
include the LFK terminal. Looking at mostly variable winds or
predominantly from the southeast with speeds less than 10kts with
winds decoupling after sunset.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level pattern continues to maintain ridge axis over central
Texas with cirrus spilling down through the Red River Valley and
across the Ark-La-Tex. Expect these high clouds to be a bit more
extensive today, but this will do very little to inhibit heating
as temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 90s once
again this afternoon. A return to southerly winds will allow for
Gulf moisture to begin creeping back in our direction later today
so expect at least some cumulus development this afternoon, mainly
over our southern zones. Despite what the calendar says, the start
of fall later today will certainly not feel like it as the summer
heat wins out for now.

A pattern shift is coming however as a deep upper trough now over
the Pacific NW digs into the Intermountain West and the Rockies
over the next 24-48 hours. In the meantime, the upper ridge will
keep the heat going for us with slim rain chances on Friday and
Saturday and high temperatures still reaching the low to mid 90s.
By Sunday, the trough will swing out across the Plains with a cold
front advancing southeastward toward our region with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more likely. From this point, medium range
model progs begin to diverge. The more consistent GFS solution
drags the trough on across the mid-section of the country Monday
into Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms more numerous with the
front. Have opted to side with the GFS based on better run-to-run
consistency, but will need to continue fine tuning the forecast as
models have had a difficult time resolving this first major storm
system of the fall season. Regardless, the last week of September
looks to be much cooler and wetter than the previous three weeks
with a noticeable transition to more fall-like temperatures.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  92  66  91  71 /   0   0  10  10
TXK  92  69  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  92  69  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  95  73  92  74 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  94  71  92  73 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  94  73  91  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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