Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240455
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a line of convection with only occasional
thunder now, is draped along a cold front over NE TX and along an
intersecting outflow from KGGG to KAEX. The cold front will
filter N/NE low level winds area wide just as the morning stratus
is lifting after daybreak and additional convection may crop up
toward daybreak and linger all morning. We will slowly ease back
to VFR into the afternoon with drier air working in the area. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Quick zone update just sent to make a few minor adjustments to
pops tonight. The gust front from the earlier AR MCS continues to
makes steady progress SW across NE TX/N LA attm, with additional
sct strong to occasionally svr convection developing along this
gust front as it intersects a weak sfc front extending across N TX
just N of the DFW Metroplex E to just S of PRX to near TXK, and
extreme Nrn LA, where it has been convectively reinforced from the
earlier MCS. The air mass remains quite unstable ahead of the
ongoing bndrys where SBCapes of 3000-4000+ J/Kg remains present
across much of E TX/Wrn LA. However, weak mid level winds and and
the lack of deep lyr forcing should keep this convection loosely
organized, with the initial shortwave driving the earlier AR MCS
having already dropped SE across the Delta region/Lower MS Valley
where the air mass is more stable. However, the short term progs
do hint at additional development occurring overnight across the
middle Red River Valley as a second shortwave noted on the
evening water vapor imagery over W TX/Cntrl OK helps to initiate
additional sct/numerous convection as it spreads SE across the
region. The only fly in the ointment is the fact that how much
instability will remain and whether the existing gust front/cold
front slow overnight, but could help to focus additional
convection as forcing increases late with the approaching
shortwave. The short term progs remain all over the place with
where/how much convection will develop as only the 18Z NAM
actually initialized best on the AR MCS, with the HRRR playing
catchup all night and also lacking convective development over
much of E TX. However, believe the svr threat will remain isolated
given the weak overall forcing and especially as the gust front
continues to propagate SW and cool/stabilize the air mass.

In the update, did lower pops to chance across SE OK/SW AR, but
maintained likely pops over much of E TX/N LA with the ongoing
convection. Did not make any changes to forecast min temps, but
will be dependent on the gust front/sfc front passage.

Grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  82  69  85 /  60  70  30  30
MLU  74  82  69  85 /  60  70  20  20
DEQ  69  82  62  85 /  40  40  10  10
TXK  71  80  65  84 /  50  60  20  10
ELD  71  81  64  85 /  50  60  10  10
TYR  75  83  68  85 /  70  70  40  40
GGG  73  82  68  85 /  70  70  40  30
LFK  76  86  71  85 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/15



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