Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. NOT OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS EVENING ALONG A LINE FROM TULSA TO OKLAHOMA CITY
AND LAWTON OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FOUR STATE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT AS OF 23Z WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PITTSBURG KANSAS TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY ONTO NEAR CHILDRESS AND ACCORDING
TO LOCAL RADAR MOSAICS...CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS.

23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS ARE QUICKLY DECOUPLING
ATTM AND SHOULD STAY NEAR 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE STRONGER
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A SWATH OF STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY MVFR CEILING CATEGORIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CEILINGS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS. IF CEILINGS COME IN LOWER
THAN EXPECTED...THEN FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT
THE LFK TERMINAL. MADE MENTION OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT MOST
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY.

CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR NEAR 35HDFT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDED VCTS TO THE
TXK/TYR/GGG/ELD TERMINALS IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT
NEARS...BUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE TXK TERMINAL.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE STREAM OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON WV LOOP
STREAMING FROM THE ERN PAC INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE STREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH A LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MX...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO BE LARGELY POST-FRONTAL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER S CNTRL AR. FRONT WILL BE
RATHER SLOW MOVING AND MAY ACTUALLY STALL JUST S OF THE CWA WHICH
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SECOND COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DECENT MOISTURE RETURN APPEAR SLIGHTLY
BETTER SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SE ZONES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POPS IS LOW. LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE ENELY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CUT OFF. WITH A LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP.
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT COLD AIR FROM NW
CANADA WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
TASTE OF COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY QUITE A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAST WARMUP IN TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SET THE STAGE FOR VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH BEEN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING CONSIDERING THIS IS STILL OVER 7 DAYS AWAY YET
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  82  59  72  52 /  10  30  40  20  10
MLU  65  81  59  73  48 /  10  30  50  20  10
DEQ  62  72  51  72  48 /  30  60  30  10  10
TXK  65  75  54  71  47 /  20  60  50  10  10
ELD  64  75  56  71  48 /  10  40  50  10  10
TYR  66  82  56  73  52 /  10  40  30  20  10
GGG  65  81  58  73  52 /  10  40  40  20  10
LFK  66  84  64  78  56 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





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