Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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