Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

The morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc trough extending from
portions of extreme Ern TX E into N LA along the I-20 corridor into
Cntrl MS. Meanwhile...the latest water vapor imagery depicts a weak
W-E shear axis in VC of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA as well...which
the progs continue to shunt swd into Deep E TX/Cntrl LA this
afternoon. Already beginning to see some slightly drier air beginning
to seep S across Srn MO/Ncntrl AR this morning...with the deeper
wedge of drier air noted on the 00Z KSGF and to some extent...the KLZK
raobs. The short term progs are in good agreement in suggesting this
drier air spilling S across much of Ern OK/AR today...just behind the
weak shear axis as it slips S to the SE TX/S LA coast by this
afternoon. Meanwhile...the weak sfc trough should linger through this
afternoon over E TX/N LA and provide a focus for sct convection
development by late morning/early afternoon across the deeper moist
sector characteristic of PW/s of 1.8-2.0+ inches.

Given these newer trends...have toned down pops today across extreme
NE TX/SW AR/extreme Nrn LA...having dropped mention of pops completely
for SE OK/the nrn sections of SW AR where the deeper drier air will
quickly spill into these areas. Did maintain mid/high chance and
likely pops S of I-20...with these storms likely becoming outflow
dominant this afternoon as they build S. As was the case Monday
afternoon...can/t rule out locally strong winds and brief heavy
rainfall...with the convection quickly diminishing/exiting the region
this evening. Have tapered pops a little faster this evening that the
previous the deeper drier air should begin to settle
quickly swd into portions of NE TX/N LA.

Should see dewpoints mix out a bit more Wednesday and Thursday sfc ridging builds SSW into the region. Should also
see a bit of a warming trend as well by midweek...even as the upper
ridge axis remains anchored over the Four Corners Region E into the
Srn Plains. Both the ECMWF/GFS depict weak perturbations aloft
rounding the Ern periphery of the upper ridge axis Wednesday and
Thursday...but far enough N over NE OK/Wrn AR mainly in the higher
terrain such that this forecast should remain dry through at least
Thursday. The center of the ridge axis should begin to shift E into
Wcntrl TX Friday...with additional weaknesses in the flow aloft
ridging atop the ridge and focusing sct convection Friday through
portions of the upcoming holiday weekend mainly over Nrn/Cntrl OK and
AR. Have maintained slight chance pops for SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR
Friday should any convection be able to build swd closer to the ridge
axis...before the ridge center builds E into the region Saturday.

The ridge itself looks to flatten a bit by Sunday...thus have re-
introduced slight chance pops for the Nrn zones with isolated
convection possibly building more SE by Monday as a NW flow aloft is
established atop and just E of the ridge. Slightly above normal temps
and a return to higher humidity is expected late into the weekend and
in time for the Independence Day holiday.

Prelims to follow below...



SHV  92  74  94  73 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  89  72  92  70 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  93  68  93  68 /  10   0  10  10
TXK  92  71  93  70 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  90  70  92  68 /  20   5  10  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  30  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  72 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  91  74  94  73 /  60  20  10  10


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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