Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  79  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  85  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  86  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  90  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




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