Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 171614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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