Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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829
FXUS64 KSHV 070014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKIES CLEARING OFF NOW WITH EXITING UPPER STORM
OVER THE MS RIVER. WE WILL SEE A FEW/SCT CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK AND
FOR SUNDAY. OUR SFC WINDS ARE SLACKING AND STILL NW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT KTPL AND DRIFTING E. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL RETURN
IN FROM THE SW ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...ALOFT WE VARY
N-NE ON CLIMB WITH INCREASING SPEED TO JET MAX AT 110KT AT FL300.
ALL LEVELS WILL SLACK AND BACK TO NW FOR TOMORROW. LITTLE CHANGE
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS A WEAK UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA OPENED INTO A WAVE IN THE
BOTTOM AN AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE SAME TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AS THESE SHIFT EAST AND RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...EXPECT
DRY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOST LIKELY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING AROUND MID NEXT WEEK. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EAST TEXAS...LEAVING TYR/GGG/LFK WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT GGG. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH BY 07/00Z AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE REGION AND ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 07/00Z
BEFORE BECOMING S/SW BETWEEN 3-5 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  61  37  54 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  31  60  38  54 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  32  59  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  32  59  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  59  36  52 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  62  37  54 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  32  61  36  53 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  33  62  38  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



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