Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 151030
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
430 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.AVIATION...
Very similar flying conditions this morning across our airspace
compared to 24 hours ago with increasing mid level cloud cover
across all terminal locations except for the MLU airspace as of
10z this morning. Ceilings currently ranging between 6-10kft
should gradually lower with time today as a weak cold front moves
into the region from the northwest late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Post frontal ceilings should quickly lower to
MVFR/IFR conditions with the possibility of some patchy fog as
well.

Winds today will be out of the south near 6-12kts with some higher
gusts possible at the TYR terminal with winds becoming variable to
NE near or less than 5 kts in the wake of the cold front this
evening into the overnight hours.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Disturbance in the Central Plains as noted on wv imagery this
morning will continue to spill ewd today around the upper ridge
axis anchored over the Desert SW. Associated cold front will move
into the nrn portions of the region today and stall along the I-20
corridor tonight. Sct shwrs/isold tstms will be possible through
Friday along with quite a temp gradient from n to s across our
region. The front will move back nwd by Friday, allowing for our
temps to soar into the upper 70s across much of the CWA.

Quite a bit of adjustment has been made for the timing of the
weekend system as models have finally come into better agreement.
The fast GFS has come more in line with the Euro/Canadian
solutions with respect to timing. The front will move across our
region early Saturday morning, bringing some chances for
shwrs/tstms during the day Saturday. The GFS remains quite a bit
more optimistic PoP/QPF-wise than other models. Have continued to
keep only chance PoPs, with any rain exiting the region well prior
to midnight Saturday night. Severe potential seems to be diminishing
as well, as instability looks to be very meager at best and much
of the convection post frontal.

Saturday`s front will bring much cooler air to us with the
possibility for another freeze for portions of the region Sunday
night. NW flow aloft will keep this airmass in place for the most
part with temps remaining very near normal as we move into next
work week.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  69  60  79 /  20  30  10  10
MLU  55  68  57  80 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  51  61  55  75 /  20  30  20  20
TXK  54  62  57  77 /  20  30  20  20
ELD  53  63  55  77 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  60  69  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  59  69  61  79 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  60  76  62  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/13



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