Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 032117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WAS ROUNDING THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RETROGRADES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH THE
INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
DONT THINK THAT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE OF WARM AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATED SO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER. FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE FORMS AND SHORT
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME COOLER READINGS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SCTVBKN CU LIFTING ATTM ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE
FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY BR/FG...POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...AROUND DAYBREAK
FROM 09-15Z. AFTN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  71  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  69  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  20
LFK  73  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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