Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 140322
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
922 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 14/00Z terminal forecast period, all sites will begin with
prevailing VFR flight categories with a gradual lowering of the
bases and lowering of the visibilities to MVFR during the
overnight hours with IFR and below flight categories after
14/07Z. Parts of East and Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas
will be in near a frontal boundary that will aid in the
development of rain and showers. IFR/LIFR  persisting through
around 14/15Z before improving to MVFR. Surface winds light East
to Southeast to prevail through the terminal forecast period with
Northeast winds 3-7 knots for Southwest and South Central Arkansas
and Western sections of East and Northeast Texas in wake of the
nearly stationary front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border to near
Gilmer texas and to the west of an Idabel Oklahoma to Tyler and
Palestine Texas line.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Stalled cold front remains just along the wrn and nrn CWA
boundaries of E TX/SE OK/SW AR this afternoon. Light shwrs
continue in the warm sector, but have seen very little convection
focused along the boundary. The front is fcst to begin to move
back nwd tonight as low pressure in the plains deepens. SW flow
aloft over the top of a very unseasonably warm and moist boundary
layer will continue to allow for isold to sct shwrs through the
weekend.

Rain chances will increase into early next work week, as the upper
low off the coast of srn CA moves into W TX Monday. While this
system may pose a severe threat to areas of W and Central TX, that
threat will greatly diminish as the upper low dampens and lifts
newd over central OK. The ewd progression of the front will slow
significantly, and the loss of strong upper level support and lack
of overall instability will limit severe potential with the tstms.
Front/upper low looking a bit more progressive with this package,
which has cut down on the qpf quite a bit from earlier packages.
Rain looks to move out late Tuesday/early Wednesday, with little
to no change in airmass.

Secondary upper low will move in on the heels of the early-week
system, and will bring chances for rain back to the region for the
latter half of the work week. Models a bit inconsistent on this
feature, so stayed with conservative, low-end PoPs attm.

Unfortunately for those who enjoy seasonable January temperatures,
we will remain above normal, and in most cases well above normal,
for the entirety of the fcst pd.  /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  75  56  74 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  58  75  54  74 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  52  64  53  67 /  50  40  30  30
TXK  55  67  54  70 /  30  30  30  20
ELD  54  70  52  71 /  30  20  20  20
TYR  59  74  57  72 /  20  20  30  20
GGG  60  74  57  72 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  62  77  59  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/12



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