Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 182109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS SOUTH
ARKANSAS CONTINUED TO WAVE OVER THE REGION WHILE ALOFT THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY
HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THIS ARKANSAS WAVE HAS PHASED WITH A PREVIOUS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...EARLIER OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND EXTENDED INTO
EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE RESULT HAS BEEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA..
THE TEXAS PRECIPITATION HAS A SUPPLY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL CARRY OVER THROUGH TONIGHT AND BY LATE FRIDAY TAPER
OFF WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST. ALOFT THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION FROM THE WEST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES. THIS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ONE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...
ANOTHER HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO COAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER TO BEGIN THE 18/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BRING AREAS OF
MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH
AT LEAST 18/22Z. MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WILL ALSO
BRING LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
19/02Z. CONVECTION IN OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. AFTER 19/03Z...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP EAST AND SPREAD NORTH TO THE TYR AND GGG AREAS
BY 09Z. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 19/16Z. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  91  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  69  90  68  92  67 /  30  10  10   0  10
DEQ  67  87  67  90  68 /  20   0  10  10  20
TXK  68  89  69  90  69 /  20   0  10  10  20
ELD  68  89  68  91  69 /  30   0  10   0  10
TYR  70  90  69  92  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  68  90  68  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  69  89  70  92  70 /  50  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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