Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 171706
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1106 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Diffuse cool front remains draped acros midsection of cwa.
Instability remains limited so removed mention of thunder for
mainly AR/OK, with an embedded thunder further south remaining
extremely isold. Temps remaining fairly steady, so lowered aftn
highs just a couple degrees as well...remaining in 50s most of
area./VII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

AVIATION...
A cold front has shifted SE across much of the region early this
morning, and extends from just S of a CXO, to JAS, to just N of
AEX and TVR line as of 1145Z. Deeper convection continues to
develop along and just behind the front across Deep E TX into
Ncntrl LA, and have tempoed mention of TSRA for MLU through mid-
morning before the best thunder potential shifts farther SE.
Farther W and NW, sct areas of -RA will continue to develop across
much of E TX/SW AR, although drier air has begun to spill SE in
wake of the front, with VFR cigs returning for all but the LFK/MLU
terminals. The post-frontal rains should not affect vsbys much
today, with cigs expected to remain VFR through the afternoon.
However, the front is expected to stall later today over Cntrl
LA/SE TX, with overrunning expected to increase this evening with
areas of -SHRA expected to develop/expand NE across the area. This
will result in cigs quickly becoming low MVFR/IFR by mid to late
evening over E TX/N LA, eventually falling across the SW AR
terminals after 06Z. The convection should grow deeper late
tonight as large scale forcing increases ahead of a lead shortwave
that will eject NE across Cntrl TX. Thus, should see TSRA affect E
TX/SE OK/possibly SW AR late in the TAF period resulting in vsby
restrictions. N winds 4-7kts today will become LT N after 00Z.
/15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough currently over Northwest Mexico will slowly move
east northeast and across the Southern Plains through the end of
the work week. This will keep very unsettled conditions in place
for the next several days. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
trough will keep abundant deep layer moisture streaming into the
region. Large scale ascent has led to the development of a band of
showers from Central Texas, into the Arklatex, and northeast into
Tennessee and Kentucky. Farther south, more robust convection has
developed along a surface cold front that is slowly moving
southeast. Coverage and intensity of the rainfall should increase
areawide today as vertical ascent increases ahead of the
approaching trough. The highest rain amounts through this evening
will be associated with the convection along the cold front
southeast of a line from KJSO to KMLU.

Rain will become more widespread this evening and tonight,
especially across East Texas, as a lead vort max moves across the
Southern Plains ahead of the main upper trough. During the day
Wednesday, the majority of the rain should shift farther eastward
into Southern Arkansas and Louisiana. Most of the area will
continue to see rain on Thursday, but the precipitation should
slowly end from west to east by Thursday evening. Additional
rainfall amounts through 06z Thursday could be over an inch for
most locations along and south of Interstate 30, with two to
three inches, with isolated higher amounts, southeast of a line
from KJSO, to Jefferson, TX, to KELD. These higher rain amounts
are expected in areas that have not seen very much rainfall, so
far. These amounts are also expected to be somewhat spread out
over the course of the next few days. Therefore, no flood
headlines are currently anticipated.

Shortwave ridging will allow for some dry weather on Friday, but
thunderstorm chances will return by early Saturday morning and
continuing through the weekend as another series of upper troughs
affect the region. Medium range models are in fairly decent
agreement with a pretty strong upper trough centered over Southern
Oklahoma by Sunday morning. This upper trough should move much
more quickly across the area and rain chances should end by early
Monday morning.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  52  61  55 /  70  70  90  60
MLU  64  53  64  60 /  70  60  60  70
DEQ  55  45  55  48 /  30  70  50  40
TXK  54  47  54  50 /  40  70  70  50
ELD  58  48  57  53 /  50  60  60  60
TYR  54  49  58  51 /  70 100 100  50
GGG  55  50  60  53 /  70  90 100  60
LFK  59  55  67  56 /  70  80 100  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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