Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...

VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR DUE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN MIST/BR
THIS MORNING LIFTING BY 26/14Z WHERE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTIONS
OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED
IN KLFK AND KELD TERMINALS AROUND 26/22Z-26/24Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOT. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH TODAY
WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION WHERE A WWRD
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO PARTS OF N LA
YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AS THE WEAK CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA COAST SLOWLY MEANDERS WWRD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF. BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PASSING SHWRS OR ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND MORE SO ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO W
CNTRL LA WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL ALL WE CAN MANAGE ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SLIDE EWRD ALONG THE SE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AND
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROF SHIFTS EWRD FROM THE PLAINS.
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO HIGHER AS BETTER CONSENSUS IS
REACHED WITH THE LONG TERM PROGS...WHICH HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS
WITH QPF AMOUNTS. AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN EXPECT SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  72  96  72  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
MLU  94  68  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10  20
DEQ  94  71  95  69  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TXK  94  72  95  69  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  94  69  96  68  94 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  96  74  96  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
GGG  96  71  96  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
LFK  95  73  96  74  94 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





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