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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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