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445
FXUS64 KSHV 231501
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy has shifted north of the
ARKLATEX earlier this morning, but in its wake, a rather moist
atmospheric profile ensued. A mid-level shear axis across portions
of southwest AR and north central LA coupled with rather moist
conditions have aided in lingering scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms across the aforementioned areas /some of
which have approached strong levels/. This precipitation activity
is moving east, and expected to be waning whilst exiting the
region by late morning/early this aftn. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere this aftn, if
enough daytime destabilization takes place. Otherwise, an
approaching cold front will be our next weather maker tonight/overnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 23/12Z TAFS... IFR to MVFR conditions are prevailing
across the ArkLatex region. Tropical Storm Cindy`s remnants have
moved into SE AR, and will continue to move off to the NE this
morning. Currently showers and thunderstorms are over SW AR and
most of LA these storms will move to the NE at 20 mph. The E TX
terminals KTYR,KTXK,KLFK and KGGG no rain at this time but clouds
of 1KFT are moving in from the west ahead of a cold front in the
Panhandle of TX. SHRA will increase this afternoon across all
terminals sites before moving out of the region completely by
24/00Z. Sfc winds will range from 10 to 15 kts with higandher
gusts, while winds abv flight level will range from 20 to 40 kts.
/21/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface remnants of Cindy are currently spinning across Central
Arkansas attm with this feature expected to continue moving
quickly to the north and east this morning. However, looking
aloft, there will continue to be a weakness in the mid levels of
the atmosphere in the form of a shear axis across Central
Louisiana into South Central/Southeast Arkansas today. Combine
this with tropical moisture left behind from Cindy and that will
be an area for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continuing today. Our eastern most zones is an area that can take
additional rainfall today with the heavier rates expected this
morning so for this reason, have decided to cancel the remaining
Flash Flood Watch across our portion of Northern Louisiana and
Union County Arkansas.

Looking upstream, a trough of low pressure across the Northern and
Central Plains will have a cold front associated with it that will
be moving into the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma,
Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas this evening with
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop along this feature. The convection should
continue increasing in coverage as the front pushes south towards
the I-20 Corridor overnight tonight as well. Kept pops on the high
side at least through Saturday morning across all but our
northern third as the front will be slow pushing through the I-20
Corridor during day but should see a drying trend from north to
south across our region by Sat Aftn. The front should push
completely through our region by Sat Evng but the 850mb boundary
and thus the drier post frontal airmass will not get a good push
through our region until late Sat Night/Sun timeframe so have
kept slight chance/chance pops going for the corridor and south
for these periods as well. The post frontal airmass will tend to
keep temperatures down for late June across the region with lows
in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through at least Tue
of next week which could be a lot worse this time of the year
before we begin to see returning southerly flow by the middle and
later half of the upcoming work week.

Upper ridging begins to break down by the middle of next week
across the southwest CONUS with near zonal flow expected across
much of the Southern Plains thereafter. With the expected low
level moisture return, we should return to more typical daytime
driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as well along with near normal temperatures.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  74  83  69 /  30  60  70  30
MLU  85  73  83  68 /  90  60  70  30
DEQ  89  70  82  63 /  40  60  40  10
TXK  88  72  81  66 /  40  60  60  20
ELD  85  72  81  65 /  80  60  60  20
TYR  91  73  83  69 /  20  60  70  40
GGG  89  73  83  68 /  20  60  70  40
LFK  91  76  86  71 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/21/13