Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
515 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY AND MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF DURANT AND CLAYTON OK.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ALONG EASTWARD OVER KN INTO NW MO WHILE TIED TO A DEEPENING
MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW A BIT WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND VORT NOW OVER
UT AND CO DEEPENS THE OVERALL LONG WAVE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
FAR AS WHAT IS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A SHARP LITTLE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN A FIXTURE ALL NIGHT LONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOOSING THUNDER AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH IT/S ELEMENTS OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME AS
THE PATTERN BELLYS OUT UNTIL THE NEXT VORT SWINGS INTO PLAY. OUR
AREA WIDE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
LIKE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH LIKELY POPS INTEGRATED WITH
WPC HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING OVERHEAD
TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WE WILL TURN IN SOME DECENT QPF BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WIDE SPREAD NUMBERS MAY WELL LACK LUSTER IN
MANY LOCALES WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE MAINLY OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SWATH OF BETTER THAN INCH TOTALS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA...TO MEMPHIS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECONDARY
SURGE WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SWINGING DOWN IN THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK. ALSO TO NOTE SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN REMAINS LIKELY BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL PATTERN. OVERALL...MAV IS QUITE REASONABLE AND
MEX IS A GOOD BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  81  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  73  49  75  40  73 /  60  30  10  10  10
TXK  76  54  73  47  73 /  60  50  10  10  10
ELD  76  55  72  43  72 /  40  60  20  10  10
TYR  79  57  74  49  75 /  40  30  20  10  10
GGG  81  58  74  48  75 /  40  40  20  10  10
LFK  83  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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