Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8 UNTIL 5 AM CDT FOR
LITTLE RIVER...SEVIER...HOWARD...AND HEMPSTEAD COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT. ALOFT THIS MORNING
A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND TO NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. A NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...WHERE IT CONTINUED INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS...AND INTO OHIO. THE UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SENDING THE SURFACE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BY LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AFTER 1 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER DISTURBANCES FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION. THROUGH THE WEEK ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA. FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL WEEK. COOL READINGS WILL LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BACK DOOR FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A QUICK WARM UP OCCURS FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY. WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE NOTED
WITH QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WITH IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
ARRIVE AT TXK/TYR/GGG PRIOR TO OR NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCING
FARTHER SE ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR
ERN TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...WITH VSBYS ALSO DOWN IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE N/NW. SPEEDS
WILL DROP OFF BY 27/00Z AS RAPID CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK...VALID UNTIL 3 AM. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
STORMS ARE STILL IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SO IT WILL BE A FEW
HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION REACHES THE AREA. IN TEXAS...THE FRONT WAS
STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO IT WILL BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE EAST TEXAS AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  42  68  45 /  60  10   0   0
MLU  67  41  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  62  35  64  39 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  63  40  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  64  39  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  43  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  65  40  69  45 /  40   0   0   0
LFK  67  46  72  47 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06


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