Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

For the 22/12z TAFs, MVFR ceilings will persist through at least
early afternoon mainly east of a line from KDEQ to lower Toledo
Bend Reservoir. The clouds will gradually lift and scatter through
the day, and VFR flight conditions should prevail areawide by
23/03z. Light and variable or light northerly winds will shift to
the south by sunset as a surface high pressure center moves across
the region today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

The morning satellite imagery indicates that our pesky upper low has
finally begun to shift S over Srn MS/SE LA this morning, although the
wrap-around cloud cover continues to linger across much of AR/N
LA/extreme Ern TX. Sfc obs also reveal low stratus which has
developed/trying to spread WSW from Scntrl AR into portions of Ncntrl
LA, with the short term progs suggesting that the low stratus may
linger through early afternoon over these areas before it begins to
scatter out. Should see a pronounced warmup commence today as the cigs
begin to scatter out with the departure of the upper low into the Nrn
Gulf, with much above normal temps returning to SE OK/E TX/Wrn LA
with temps near/just shy of 80 degrees. A light SSE low level flow
will return to the region this evening, which will become enhanced
Thursday in response to a tightening pressure gradient over the Srn
Plains induced by the approaching shortwave that will traverse the
Great Basin into the Rockies. This will aid in the increase in
warm/moisture advection over the region Thursday, with max temps
climbing well into the 80s over E TX, with these readings just shy of
record territory. S winds should stay up overnight Thursday ushering
in a return to the low stratus late, with min temps not falling much
if not below 60 degrees.

The aforementioned shortwave remain progged to lift NE into the
Midwest Friday morning, with trailing shortwave energy translating ESE
beneath the trough across Srn KS/OK into MO/NW AR late in the day.
This second piece of energy will help reinforce a cold front SE into
the area Friday, with the front clearing the Lower Toledo Bend Country
and Ncntrl LA during the evening. As was the case with our last
frontal system last week, the post-frontal cold advection looks to lag
the front a ways, and have trended max temps near or just below the
much warmer MAV guidance, into the upper 70s/lower 80s. However, much
drier air looks to immediately follow the fropa, resulting in
abnormally low RH`s over E TX/SE OK Friday afternoon. The GFS/ECMWF
continue to depict a lack of deep lyr moisture ahead of the front,
thus have kept the forecast dry through Friday evening with the fropa.

Should see a return to more seasonable temps Friday night through
much of this weekend as Canadian sfc ridging builds S into the Srn
Plains. The protected areas of SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR could see a
light freeze Saturday night, before a slow warming trend commences
Sunday as srly low level winds return with the departing sfc ridge E
of the lower MS Valley. Low level moisture advection returns in
earnest Sunday night in response to an increasing SWrly LLJ, with
above normal temps expected Monday through the remainder of the
extended as a weak SWrly flow aloft sets up over the Srn Plains ahead
of the next amplifying trough along the W coast that will translate E
across the Great Basin into the Plains by midweek. The remains some
discrepancies amongst the GFS and ECMWF in regards to a potential weak
sfc front that the ECMWF suggests will drift SE before hanging up
Monday near the Red River of SE OK/Wrn AR. Not quite buying this
scenario yet given the deep Swrly flow, and have maintained slight
chance pops Monday/Monday night in response to the increasing
warm/moisture advection. However, these progs do come into reasonable
agreement with the aforementioned shortwave generating considerable
forcing as it Tuesday and Wednesday as it traverses the Srn Plains,
and have maintained mid chance pops for the latter extended. Based on
the shear and instability profiles, this system will need to be
watched closely for our next potential for severe convection.

Prelims to follow below...



SHV  77  54  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  51  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  77  49  81  55 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  75  53  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  74  49  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  79  55  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  79  53  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  79  52  83  59 /   0   0   0  10




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