Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12


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