Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300420
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPLICATED IS
THE FORECAST BECAUSE NONE OF THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE HANDLED
THIS EVENING CONVECTION VERY WELL AND ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
AS IT PERTAINS TO THE CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND DAYTIME
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LULL IN INTENSITY AND/OR DEVELOPMENT BUT A
MYRIAD OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION NOT TO
MENTION A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY ACROSS NE TX STRETCHING INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THAT IS HEADED SOUTH MAY BE ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR NEW NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM PROGS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS BUT
SUPRISINGLY TONIGHT...THE NEW 00Z RUNS ARE PRETTY MUCH VOID OF
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...INSTEAD WAITING ON DAYTIME
HEATING TO GENERATE ACTIVITY.

HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS MENTION FOR ALL TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH
THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE AT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW QUITE HEAVY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE TOTALED
BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR INCHES. FORTUNATELY...MOST HAVE BEEN IN
RURAL LOCATIONS WITH NO SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING REPORTED. ALSO...SOME
HAIL OCCURRED...BUT MOST SIZE REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN THREE
QUARTERS OR LESS IN DIAMETER.

STORMS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN A RESULT OF HIGH INSTABILITY IN
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD DIMINISH IN ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND...STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER ARE
FIRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT AND MAY LAST LONGER AS THEY PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
IS...WITH SMALL POPS AREA WIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO
THE POCKETS OF RAIN...CLOUD COVER AND VARIABLE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...LOWER 70S AS FORECAST SHOULD STILL BE GOOD MOST LOCATIONS.

NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED ATTM.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  74  90  74 /  20  30  40  20
MLU  93  73  90  74 /  20  30  40  20
DEQ  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
TXK  92  73  89  74 /  20  30  40  20
ELD  92  73  89  73 /  20  30  40  20
TYR  92  74  91  74 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  92  74  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
LFK  95  74  92  74 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/13



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