Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231558 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor loops indicate the best deep layer moisture has
shifted well to the northwest of the area. The quasi-stationary
front that helped to focus widespread convection over the last
several days has since lifted north of the area and dissipated.
Also, a mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. is building and
expanding over the region. With the increased subsidence from the
ridge, the lack of any large scale ascent, and no significant
surface boundaries, rain chances for today look quite low for most
of the area. It appears any convection today will be in the form
of isolated diurnal sea breeze activity. The latest NAM and HRRR
keep the entire CWA dry today, but the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF still
depict some QPF south of I-20. Therefore, PoPs were tweaked to
maintain a slight chance across the southeast half of the CWA this
afternoon.

The remainder of the grids were left intact. Updated text products
have been sent.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

AVIATION...
IFR to LIFR cigs plague the terminals this morning as well as
intermittent VFR to MVFR fog /that at times would dip into the
VLIFR category particularly at kmlu/. Expect cig conditions to
gradually improve to VFR by late morning. Light and variable winds
this morning will become more south to southwest at 5-6 kts by
this afternoon. Computer models hint at gusts of 15-20 mph
particularly at kggg and ktyr this afternoon, but will decline
near/at sunset. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are a
possibility this afternoon, though coverage not expected to be as
widespread as recent days. Have therefore elected to not include a
precip mention of any sort, given confidence of an isolated shower
directly affecting a terminal is not high enough to insert a
mention at this time. Will of course amend as necessary. Tonight,
light south winds and potential return of low cloud decks.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Partly to mostly cloudy with low to mid 70s and a little patchy
fog since midnight in some cases, remains in the wake of last
evenings rainfall. We can look forward to drying out a bit for a
couple or few days until that next cold front crossing the Rockies
now moves down our way. The upper level high can be seen well
rotating on the water vapor this morning, centered over NE TX and
expanding Northward. Our surface winds are light S/SE mainly over
our West with many locales calm for the Eastern two thirds of our
cwa. Aloft the LLJ is humming right along at 20-25 kts in the
first 2-4kft. S/SW winds will set up on the surface as the jet
weakens with heating, but we could see some brief gusts mid to
late morning today as mixing gets underway. Otherwise, just a
slight chance for an afternoon sea breeze push with ridge doing a
little more suppressing of afternoon cu for the first time in over
a week. Our pwat last night was the lowest in a while, but still
1.8. We will keep an eye on the mixing out of surface dew points
as the heat index may see new life in the abundant sunshine this
mid week. The green up and lower soil temperature of late will
keep the lower 90s for most sites today. A few more mid 90s will
be likely in the days to come in the late summer sun angle. The
longer range does increase our pops late week along that coming
front, but the WPC 5 and 7 day QPF will keep us below an inch for
now. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  75  94  76 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  75  95  77 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  90  73  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  91  74  93  75 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  91  74  91  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09



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