802
FXUS64 KSHV 100504
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - One more day of scattered to numerous daytime showers and
thunderstorms today, mainly across our southern and eastern   areas.

 - Rain chances diminish for Friday through the upcoming weekend.   -
 Temperatures will continue to climb into early next week with
critical heat indices possible and the return of Heat   Advisories
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Should see one more day of increased diurnally driven convection
today with the key ingredients being an upper level shear axis
emanating from the Tenn Valley, south and west into SE TX and
plentiful moisture in the form of higher PWATs. This abundant
moisture shifted a little further south and east on Wednesday, thus
areas virtually void of convection near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor. Latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs aoa 1.5 inches are
present across the southern half of NE TX, into all of N LA and into
far S and SE AR. Extrapolating that out, it would make sense that
the greatest convective coverage today should be across our far
southern, southeast and eastern zones. This is mostly in agreement
with latest NBM output but more so with the latest HREF as it has
handled convective coverage quite well the last couple days with the
above mentioned parameters. Thus, pop distribution will range from
isolated coverage along and near the I-30 Corridor to low end likely
coverage across our SE zones. As has been the case the last several
days, have held onto small pops beyond 00z this evening as the NBM
wants to diminish convection too quickly after sunset. Drier air
pushes into our western 2/3rds for Friday even through a weakened
upper level shear axis remains in place so have limited pops to low
end chance variety only across our eastern third with slight chance
pops as far west as along a Lufkin, Shreveport, Prescott line.

Did not make any changes to NBM temps as it has a pretty good handle
on tempered values where pops are highest today across our southeast
zones with a noticeable rise across most all areas with diminished
convection for Friday.

For the upcoming weekend and into next week, upper ridging across
the far eastern Gulf of America appears to be expanding and/or
retrograding westward for late Saturday into Sunday. This should
push our present shear axis north and west as well but there will be
pockets of higher pwat across our northern and southern zones to
warrant isolated to scattered pops across our region both days.
As we begin the upcoming work week, the center of a dirty upper
level ridge will be parked across the Lower Miss Valley into the
Tenn Valley but the word dirty will best describe this feature as
there will be available moisture present for the possibility of at
least isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection through at
least the middle part of next week. Given the proximity of the upper
level ridge, temperatures should respond accordingly with
temperatures near triple digits across some locations if not by
Monday, then definitely by Tue into Wed of next week. That means a
return to the likelihood of Heat Advisories as critical heat indices
will likely be met.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For the 10/00Z TAF period, scattered sea breeze convection earlier
this afternoon has induced additional outflow boundaries along the
I-20 corridor this evening. As a result, more northward movement
of this convection is possible over the next few hours before it
gradually diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail and expect less convection
overall on Thursday compared to today but have inserted VCTS at
KSHV/KMLU/KLFK terminals late in the TAF period with another round
of diurnally driven sea breeze convection possible across our more
southern and eastern airspace. S/SW winds should generally prevail
between 4-8 kts on average with higher gusts invof convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm
or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and
excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  97  77/  40  30  20   0
MLU  92  73  96  75/  60  30  30  10
DEQ  93  72  94  72/  10  10   0   0
TXK  97  75  98  77/  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  72  96  73/  40  20  20  10
TYR  94  75  94  74/  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  75  95  74/  30  20  10   0
LFK  92  73  94  74/  50  30  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19