Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241809
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1209 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 24/18z TAFs, a band of intense convection will move across
the region during the next 24 hours impacting all TAF sites.
Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times. The main
convective line is quickly developing across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northeast Texas, and widespread showers are ongoing well ahead of
it across Southern Arkansas and into Western Louisiana. The main
convective complex will move across the area ahead of a cold
front. Expect deteriorating ceilings and visibilities as
terminals begin to be affected by precip. Ahead of the cold front
and thunderstorms, south winds will prevail and may gust up to 30
kts at times. After the frontal passage, winds will shift to the
north and thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish. Flight
conditions should also quickly improve into the VFR range by
25/12z.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1115 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Primary change to the fcst this morning is the addition of
Tornado Watch 004, effective until 6 pm. Line of strong storms
along and just e of I-35 will continue to march ewd into an even
more favorable environment, particularly in the way of low level
shear/SRH.

Otherwise, have made some adjustments to hourly temps and sky
grids to match obs, but max temps and PoPs seem to be on track.
Updated products out shortly. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning a warm front was over Southwest Arkansas
and into Northeast Texas with a nearly stationary front
dropping from Northeast Texas into Central Texas and
onward to the Panhandle of Texas. This boundary will not
move much to the North and will be a focus for patchy
fog and possible drizzle this morning, and later showers and
thunderstorms. During the day in the Southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico and Southern
Atlantic Coast off of Florida and an approaching upper trough of
low pressure across the Rockies will contribute disturbances that
will enhance convection. Abundant moisture will be transported
from the Gulf of Mexico in the lower levels along with increasing
85h llj to produce rainfall across the western sections of the
Four State Region early then as the upper trough swings to the
East, additional development will occur over the forecast area.
Have continued the flash flood watch across the Northwest half of
the area through midnight expecting rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches
with isolated higher amounts to near 4 inches. This on the already
nearly saturated soils from near 4-8 inches will quickly runoff
and produce flash flooding and flooding. Have not expanded the
flash flood watch to the Southeast into remaining sections of the
forecast area yet but this area may need to have a watch issued
later during the day as the rainfall expands and spreads east
into the afternoon and overnight. Have continued the lake wind
advisory for much of the forecast area through 6 PM this evening
as the pressure gradient between surface low pressure over the
plains and high pressure over the Southeast States and Gulf is
expected to tighten resulting in Southerly winds of 15-25 MPH with
gusts to 30 MPH. A threat for severe weather will spreads across
the region today with the Northwest sections having the stronger
storms during the mid to late morning today and bisecting the
forecast area in the afternoon and for the Southeast sections
during the late afternoon into the evening as the surface cold
front advances. The cold front will be near Shreveport in the
middle to late afternoon and by midnight near a Vicksburg to Port
Arthur Texas line. The boundary will become nearly stationary
across the Gulf off of Texas and Louisiana. An upper level short
wave trough of low pressure will approach the forecast area on
Sunday and provide a continued chance for convection across the
area generally South of Interstate 20. Rains taper off by Monday
as the upper trough axis passes returning a brief dry period in
the early part of the week. However a wet pattern returns by
Tuesday and the brief ridging aloft and on the surface shifts east
returning moisture and awaiting the arrival of the next upper
disturbance in the continued Southwest flow aloft out ahead of a
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. We could see some
additional moderate to heavy rainfall with the Tuesday and
Wednesday storms. Once this upper trough moves across and away to
the East, high pressure ridging on the surface and aloft looks to
allow the end of the week the next weekend to remain dry. Today
and Wednesday of next week will be our warmer days for many
locations with cloud cover and rainfall keeping cooler
temperatures in store. After passage of each cold front readings
overnight will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  51  65  45 / 100  60  30  10
MLU  80  54  64  47 /  50  90  60  50
DEQ  70  39  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
TXK  74  44  65  42 / 100  30  10  10
ELD  77  49  65  44 / 100  80  20  20
TYR  73  45  65  43 / 100  20  20  10
GGG  76  50  65  44 / 100  30  20  10
LFK  79  55  64  47 /  80  70  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ060-061-
     070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

09/12


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