Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 302031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY MARGINALLY MOIST AIR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH ISOLD
CELLS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF AREA...LIKELY ALONG
REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LVL DECKS
ADVANCING INTO EAST TX FROM CONVECTION OVER HILL COUNTRY...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SHOWERS IF PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH GROUND FROM
HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY
RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK...ISOLD POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LA...SOUTH OF I-20.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY MID
WEEK...TEMPS AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN A SEEMING PERSISTENT
PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH CHANGES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IF THE UPPER
LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX...ENSUING SUBSIDENCE COULD YIELD
LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY CONVECTION GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  69  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  68  93  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  69  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  67  95 /  20  10  10  20
TYR  73  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  70  94  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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