Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 081843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 08/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING 09/18Z...EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE WARPPING AROUND A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHEAST STATES...WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6-9 KFT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS THROUGH 09/00Z WHEN
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING STRONG
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHERGUSTS
TO 17-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNUSUALLY STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A RESULT OF A VERY STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT THE WIND FCST THIS
MORNING WITH THE IDEA OF POSSIBLY CHANGING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO A WIND ADVISORY. IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD REACH
INTO THE 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD SEE THIS AREAWIDE FOR A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS...AS
WELL AS MAX TEMP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  30  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  25  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12


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