Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 241508
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1008 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers beginning to move into east Texas this morning ahead of
a dryline across central Texas. Visible satellite imagery showing
well developed cyclonic feature across the Texas panhandle pushing
southeast toward the Arklatex. Lapse rates forecast to increase as
heights fall in response to approaching upper-low. Increased lapse
rates combined with enhanced low-level moisture will provide
instability to support strong thunderstorms later today. Will
maintain high temperatures slightly above guidance due to the
possibility of cloud breaks and compressional heating ahead of the
dryline. Otherwise, lake wind advisory remains in effect through 1
AM. Current forecast is on track, no updates at this time. /05/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 24/12Z TAF period, mostly MVFR conditions affecting our
area terminals this morning as low stratus continues to surge in
from the Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front across the Srn
Plains. This front will make quick eastward progress today with a
line of showers and thunderstorms intensifying east of I-35 with
arrival at TYR/GGG/TXK shortly after 18Z this afternoon and then
by late afternoon into the early evening at SHV/LFK followed by
ELD/MLU. This line of convection may be intense enough to support
severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. Winds will already be quite strong ahead of the frontal
boundary with southerly winds from 15-20 kts and gusts exceeding
25-30 kts throughout much of today. This will help cigs lift into
the VFR category by mid to late morning through the afternoon as
some scattering of cigs may also occur at times before the line of
convection arrives later in the day. Conditions will improve late
in the period as the front clears from west to east with showers
and storms gradually ending across the region through early Sat.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  59  78  51 /  60  80  10   0
MLU  82  64  80  51 /  20  90  40   0
DEQ  76  51  72  45 /  90  60  10   0
TXK  77  55  74  50 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  80  60  76  48 /  40  90  30   0
TYR  76  54  75  53 /  90  30   0   0
GGG  78  56  76  52 /  80  60   0   0
LFK  80  59  81  54 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05


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