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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221205
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
705 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning the upper level ridge of high pressure
remained centered over Southeast Oklahoma, Southeast Kansas,
Southwest Missouri, and North Arkansas and expanded to the East
into Kentucky and Tennessee. This system was affected by a series
of weak disturbances riding across the Northern Central sections
of the country and the Upper Midwest. A closed upper low pressure
system was riding along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana underneath the
upper ridge of high pressure and will be providing cloud cover
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms for the forecast area
during the day and overnight. The expected daytime temperatures
will be higher over the Northern zones and tapering lower into the
Southern sections from Deep East Texas across Lower Northwest and
North Central Louisiana. This morning an isolated thunderstorm
had developed over Northeast Louisiana and additional convection
will spread into the Four State Region providing some cooling. Due
to the expected dew points remaining in the seventies to
complement the hot temperatures in the middle and upper nineties,
expanded the heat advisory for the rest of the zones across the
County Warning Area. Heat indices expected to range from near 105
to 108 degrees. Current thinking is to allow the heat advisory
expire this evening since the daytime temperatures on Sunday will
be a little cooler and convection looks to be continuing. Models
all similar in solution of the upper ridge reforming and
retrograding across the rockies and amplifying North. At the same
time a trough of low pressure aloft will be extending from the
Great Lakes Southwest into the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys and the combination of the disturbances moving around the
Southwest periphery of the trough and the upper low over parts of
Southeast Texas will provide a chance for showers and
thunderstorms into the first of next week. During the first half
of the work week, the upper level ridge of high pressure will
start to extend back over the Southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley limiting the chance for convection for the Four
State Region. The temperatures will be climbing back into the mid
to upper nineties for the rest of the week and will most likely
require the re-issuance of heat advisories. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 22/06z TAFs, a couple of isolated instances of patchy fog
and MVFR visibilities are possible across the area before
sunrise, but VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at
all TAF sites for the duration of the period. More daytime cu is
likely on Saturday, and isolated convection is possible during
peak daytime heating. Coverage is expected to be too spotty to
mention in the TAFs at this time frame. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  93  76 /  30  20  40  30
MLU  95  76  93  75 /  30  20  30  30
DEQ  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  96  76  94  74 /  20  20  30  30
ELD  96  75  93  74 /  20  20  40  30
TYR  96  76  94  77 /  20  20  30  30
GGG  96  76  94  76 /  20  20  40  30
LFK  95  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/09