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000
FXUS64 KSHV 120051 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
751 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NE LA THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF LOW MVFR STRATUS OVER NCNTRL
LA AFFECTING THE MLU TERMINAL...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NE FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND INTO NCNTRL LA BY/SHORTLY AFTER
06Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...ANALYZED FROM
NEAR A MKO...TO ADM...TO MWL AND COM LINE AS OF 00Z...WILL QUICKLY
SURGE SE INTO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK BY 06Z...REACHING AN ELD...TO
SHV...TO LFK LINE AROUND 09Z...EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
12Z. SKC THIS EVENING OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR MAY EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION OF TO VFR CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. THESE CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM NW TO SE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIN CIRRUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FLIGHT HAZARD THIS TAF PERIOD WILL
BE THE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WHICH WILL VEER FROM THE SSW TO
THE NNW WITH THE FROPA...INCREASING TO 16-20KTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX BY THE END OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S INTO WCNTRL TX. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO 70S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...EXCEPT WHERE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN HOLDING TEMPS IN 60S ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
LA. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVG INTO NORTHERN OK ATTM. WINDS GUSTING TO
OVER 40 KTS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EXPECTING FRONT TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS...ARRIVING INTO SE OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR NOT
AS SHALLOW AS LAST FEW STG FRONTS HAVE BEEN SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
DELAY AS FRONT CROSSES THE OUACHITAS. AS INVERSION WELL
ELEVATED...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN WED AFTN...
AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES DURG AFTN.
ACTUALLY HAVE SOME TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING IN MORNING HOURS JUST
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
MODELS RUNNING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WEEKEND. A
FAST MOVG SHORT WAVE WILL BRING AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE...BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRY ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ON FRIDAY.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BREAK DURG WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGH IN NW
FLOW APPROACHING MORE SLOWLY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR
PRECIP...ASSOCIATED WITH MORE UPPER MOISTURE AND LESS LOW LVL
MOISTURE...WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER NE TX...AND SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE
TROUGH MOVEMENT. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING TO START A FAIRLY DRY WEEK OFF NEXT WEEK. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  60  34  62  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  58  33  60  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  45  55  30  60  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  47  56  33  59  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  50  59  32  59  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  48  57  34  64  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  50  59  33  63  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  60  35  64  40 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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