Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 292328
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
628 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered -TSRA noted well North of ktxk and keld were gradually
drifting South. A few computer models hint at this activity
nearing/affecting the said terminals, therefore a VCTS is
warranted for a few hours. By this evening, any lingering
precipitation should be waning. Attention will turn to the
potential for VFR fog particularly at keld and klfk overnight,
with hints of FEW-SCT MVFR-IFR CIGS, more so at klfk. Otherwise,
light East to Southeast winds will prevail. Tomorrow afternoon,
chances for rain should remain South of all terminals, though can
not rule out a few stray storms nearing klfk.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19


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