Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281156
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 28/12z TAFs, low stratus and patchy dense fog will affect
most terminals through the mid to late morning hours. The fog
should dissipate before noon local time, but cigs will be slower
to lift. Clouds should slowly scatter through the day and into the
late afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms also cannot be ruled
out after 28/18z across portions of Southern Arkansas and Northern
Louisiana. KMLU would be the most likely TAF site to be affected.
Any convection that develops should exit the area or dissipate
after sunset. A moist airmass and very wet soils from recent
rainfall will likely lead to MVFR or lower flight conditions
overnight as low stratus and fog develop once again.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning the upper low pressure system that has been helping
with the wet weather was over the middle part of the country and
will continue lifting into the Western ridge aloft over the
Northeast States and Great Lakes Region and Eastern Canada. In
wake of the associated trough axis trailing South along the
lower Mississippi valley...a nearly zonal flow over the Four
State Region today will give way to brief low amplitude ridge and
dry conditions. However this will change as the next upper low
pressure system shifts from Southern California and into the
desert Southwest and North Mexico providing our next round of
convection for the late half of the holiday weekend. Disturbances
rounding the base of the approaching trough in the Southwest
flow and a supply of Gulf of Mexico moisture will keep an
unsettled weather pattern for the area. This Western low will be
slow to shift East as a Northern Stream upper closed low moves
along the central Canadian and Northern U.S. border states during
the first half of the work week nudging a cold front South that
will keep convection in the picture. This cold front will enter
the Four State Region late Wednesday night and Early Thursday. The
wet weather and cloud cover will result in cooler than normal
temperatures for the late half of the week and the supply of
cool temperatures will keep reading low for the start of the
weekend. A welcome change in the pattern will be under way for the
late part of next week as the Western upper low weakens and merges
with the Northern upper trough axis and shifts east of the
forecast area, while a highly amplified upper ridge axis builds
from Mexico North across the Four Corners Region into the western
Canadian Providences. This will result in a Northerly flow aloft
along with a building of surface high pressure into the area, with
a pleasant weekend in store. The pattern will remain dry into the
start of that next week. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  70  87  70 /  20  10  20  30
MLU  84  68  88  71 /  40  20  20  20
DEQ  84  67  87  67 /  20  20  30  30
TXK  84  68  87  69 /  20  20  30  30
ELD  84  67  88  69 /  30  20  20  20
TYR  86  71  86  69 /  20  20  30  30
GGG  86  70  86  70 /  20  10  30  30
LFK  86  70  87  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09



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