Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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912
FXUS64 KSHV 181649
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1049 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
To bump high temps a good bit and tweak pops/wx.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lots of peak a boo sunshine and warm Southwest winds have some
current temps already at forecast highs, so we have gone several
categories upwards in some zones. Otherwise, the front is on
approach and will quickly sweep through the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. Idabel just did drop 6 degrees to 64 and nearby
DeQueen was 77 last hour. Temps will fall a good 10 ten or more
degrees depending on sky condition for the next few hours behind
the boundary.

The new model runs have some QPF developing right overhead more
or less with a line is developing now far to our North over
Northern Arkansas. Any rain will be brief with a very progressive
system pushing weather quickly out on gusty and shifting winds
aloft. Just a quick look at the visible imagery on GOES 16 shows
this brisk push. Nothing on our radar yet as moisture is still
shallow, but deepening a bit at this time. We will rerun zone
formatter at noon to clear morning wording for the rest of today.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS plagued all but keld early this morning /with MVFR CIGS
closing in on keld/ and will likely persist through mid-late
morning. Breezy southwesterly winds with intermittent gusts have
been persistent all night courtesy of a tightened pressure
gradient. Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph early this morning will
increase to between 15-25 mph by the afternoon, whilst winds veer
to the northwest courtesy of a cold frontal passage. These breezy
conditions will endure through early evening and aoa sunset, a
notable declination in wind speeds will take place with speeds
dropping to below 15 mph and to below 10 mph near 10 pm CST give
or take. Computer models hint at rather isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
developing along the front, though more so near kmlu and keld.
Have therefore inserted a VCSH at the said TAF sites during the
late afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread low stratus blankets the region this morning ahead of a
cold front approaching from the northwest, currently entering the
OKC metro area as of 10Z this morning. Southerly winds continue to
increase and gust ahead of the front as the sfc pressure gradient
tightens up. Based on trends so far this morning and new guidance,
have expanded the Lake Wind Advisory to cover all of our region
for today as post-frontal winds are expected to be even stronger
out of the northwest. The advisory will run through 6 PM tonight
at which time winds are expected to drop off fairly quickly just
after sunset. Any convection that develops along and ahead of the
front is expected to be isolated to widely scattered at best due
to a general lack of deep layer moisture coupled with the best
dynamics residing well north of our region. The best odds of
seeing showers this afternoon will be over our far eastern zones
where the front will be located during the peak heating hours.
Expect to see rapid clearing behind the front with temperatures
falling off quickly into the mid to upper 30s north and lower 40s
farther south by sunrise Sunday morning.

This noticeable air mass change will be felt through early next
week with lower to mid 60s for highs Sunday and Monday with lows
dipping further into the 30s areawide by Monday morning. A modest
warm-up will occur ahead of our next cold front set to arrive on
Tuesday with another slight chance of showers due to very limited
moisture return. This front will usher in even cooler air for the
Thanksgiving holiday as temperatures look to run some 5-10 degrees
below normal on Wednesday and Thursday based on the latest progs.
Southerly winds will return by the end of the week with slightly
warmer temperatures and nice weather for Black Friday shopping.
Dry conditions will prevail through at least next Saturday with
another cold front likely arriving by late next weekend. However,
rain chances remain quite meager much like with these previous
fronts. So, unfortunately, our ongoing drought will not see any
improvement over the next week with many locations likely missing
out on any rainfall despite a series of consecutive cold fronts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  42  62  35 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  82  42  61  33 /  40   0   0   0
DEQ  78  36  60  30 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  75  39  60  34 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  78  39  60  30 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  77  40  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  77  41  62  36 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  81  42  64  37 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/29/19



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