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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
931 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LOTS OF
INGREDIENTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SE ZONES ATTM. THIS AREA
HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NE TX INTO SW AR AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO RESIDE
ALONG THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS. WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS TO THE SW OF LUFKIN ATTM.

MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN ACCELERATING MCV ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BASED UPON ITS LAST LOCATION WITNESSED ON VIS
SATELLITE THIS EVENING. ITS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND HISTORY SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY BASICALLY EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN
NE TX. THIS COULD VERY WELL SERVE AS A FOCUS OVERNIGHT AS WELL
ALONG WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LIKELY RESIDE
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

LOOKING ALOFT...THETAE SURFACES AT THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVEL SHOW
WEAK THETAE RIDGES ACROSS NE TX AND N LA BASICALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE WEST TO EAST SFC BOUNDARY AND THESE COULD PROVE TO BE FOCUS
MECHANISMS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT CONTENT AS OBSERVED ON OUR SOUNDING THIS
EVENING...WILL LEAVE POP FORECAST AS IS FOR THE NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE RESIDES.

CONCERNING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...02Z TEMPS ARE RUNNING QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND THIS IS DUE IN PART TO
ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL TODAY. FCST MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT SEEM TO
HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WHILE CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEAR FCST LOWS
ATTM ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS...DO NOT THINK THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE TOO MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT.

WHAT CHANGES WERE MADE WERE FAIRLY COSMETIC WITH SKY...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN BAND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA PRIOR TO THE START OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KOSA
TO KELD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. WHERE
THE PRECIP IS NOT OCCURRING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG AND
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. SLOW...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT AND AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF I-20. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ON A
DIMINISHING TREND BY 20/02Z.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  90  73  93  74 /  30  30  10  20  10
MLU  70  89  70  92  72 /  30  30  10  20  10
DEQ  64  90  68  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
TXK  68  90  70  91  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
ELD  67  90  69  92  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
TYR  69  91  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
GGG  69  90  73  93  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
LFK  71  92  73  94  74 /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09