Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 010925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
425 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF CONVECTION WEAKENING AT
THIS TIME AS IN MOVES ACROSS LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA...AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT OF FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/S WEATHER WILL BE WITH
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...THE
MODELS AGAIN ARE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...MORE SURROUNDING OUR AREA RATHER THAN OVER IT.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS...BELIEVE
WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVE ZONAL FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THESE DAYS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE THESE
DAYS...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO NORTH NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDER AIR FINALLY SURGING SOUTH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE THE ONE DRY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON EASTER SUNDAY...WITH COOL
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTER BUNNY
MAY LUCK OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...SKC OR SOME ANVIL CIRRUS. LIGHT S/SW
SFC WINDS OR CALM. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
18Z. LOOK FOR A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ARRIVING IN E TX BY 18-21Z AND
AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE MID SOUTH.
ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE DEEP SW FLOW ONLY 10-20KTS AND THEN
VEERING TO WNW 20 BY 5KFT UP TO 50-65KTS AT FL240-FL300. LITTLE
CHANGE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW UNTIL FROPA 04/00Z. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  64  81  67 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  81  63  83  66 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  76  61  78  63 /  40  40  30  30
TXK  77  63  79  66 /  40  30  30  20
ELD  77  63  80  65 /  30  30  30  10
TYR  80  65  82  67 /  40  20  30  10
GGG  80  64  82  67 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  81  66  84  68 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/24



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