Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 280214
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
914 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low circulating over southeast Texas has enabled convection
to sustain itself well after sunset this evening. Most of the
activity has shown a weakening trend over the past hour although
one strong storm continues to move westward across Smith County as
of 02Z. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have transitioned to mostly light
showers across the remainder of east Texas and north Louisiana all
south of I-20. For the update, did increase pops markedly across
north central Louisiana and deep East Texas closer to the center
of the upper low where storms where training earlier with showers
ongoing at this time. All areas along and south of I-20 will keep
higher pops through midnight before diminishing into the slight
and low chance categories. Our northern sections should remain dry
for the most part but can`t rule out a few stray showers entirely
through midnight. Aside from the update to pops, the remainder of
the forecast appears to be on track. Updated products have already
been issued. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 841 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 28/00Z terminal forecast...expecting mostly VFR flight
categories until after 28/09Z when lower ceilings and
visibilities have a potential to develop and spread across the
area. Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a
closed middle level low pressure system will over Southeast Texas
and West Central Louisiana will keep the precipitation spreading
to the West and Northwest around its center. Could see brief
MVFR/IFR conditions in heavier showers and thunderstorms until
they end in the evening. Patchy MVFR visibilities and ceilings
will likely develop between 28/09Z-28/13Z...potentially impacting
the tafs sites until mid morning Sunday. Surface winds will be
light and variable to light East and Southeast overnight and then
increasing slightly to 5-10 knots Sunday. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  30  30  20  20
DEQ  72  92  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
TXK  73  92  75  92 /  20  20  20  20
ELD  73  93  75  93 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  90  74  91 /  40  30  20  30
GGG  74  91  74  91 /  40  30  20  20
LFK  74  89  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/06



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