Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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746
FXUS64 KSHV 071721
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
TAF sites will see IFR and MVFR conditions this period with light
rain or rainshowers developing after 08/00Z. Feel best threat for
steady precipitation will occur over East Texas...in addition to
the lowest vsby/cigs. Conditions will begin improving late. Light
east/southeast winds will back from the north and increase with
occasional gusts as an arctic front pushes through.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN/

DISCUSSION...
Skies are mostly cloudy across the ArLaTex region this morning,
with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the north to around
50 degrees across the south. Winds are light from a general
easterly direction. The patchy, dense fog that developed over east
TX early this morning has lifted, with visibilities above 3 miles
across the board.

Moist, isentropic ascent will persist this afternoon across much
of the region, but condensation pressure deficits are still
relatively large for all but the northern reaches of the CWA.
Thus, measurable rainfall is not expected this afternoon across LA
and slight chances PoPs were trimmed back a bit. Afternoon
sprinkles were carried for areas north of Shreveport. Rain chances
will increase this evening as an arctic cold front moves into the
ArkLaTex region.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
A stubborn stratus deck encompassed the Four-State Region early this
morning, with intermittent periods of drizzle/light rain accompanying
the cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover, moist grounds from
recent rainfall have allowed for the development of fog with
visibilities restricted to less than 5 miles at some locations.
Any lingering fog will scour out by mid-morning, but as sfc winds
veer to the east southeast /upslope component/, the low cloud
cover will persist and subsequently, so will bouts of drizzle/light
rain. Temps will therefore remain below seasonal norms /40s and
50s/. This evening-tonight, a longwave trough will move from the
Rockies onto the Plains and will send a breezy cold front across
the region /15-20 mph especially across far east TX which is
nearing Lake Wind Advisory criteria/. Model solutions continue to
show chances for light rain, not frozen precip, as the associated
CAA will not arrive concurrent with the fropa.

The main weather feature with the cold front is and continues to be
the rather cold Arctic air that will blanket southeast OK and the
ARKLATEX by tomorrow tonight/early Friday morning. 850 mb temps
between 0C to -5C suggest temps plummeting into the teens across
southeast OK and portions of southwest AR, with lower 20s elsewhere.
Do not believe the MOS guidance temps is handling the cold air well,
as it shows temps in the middle to upper 20s. Can not ignore that a
1045 mb sfc ridge is the driving force behind this front and as
such, this will be the coldest air since the Winter of 2015.
Furthermore, the anticipated area-wide freeze is nearing Hard Freeze
criteria, so remain vigilant and take the necessary precautions such
as: covering sensitive vegetation, bring pets indoors and covering
exposed outdoor pipes.

A return to southerly sfc flow will take place by the weekend, hence
daytime temps will recover from the 30s and 40s Thursday-Friday, to
the 50s and a few 60s by late weekend into early next week. Rainfall
chances may return as well by late weekend, as an ul shortwave
trough translates east across the central Plains and central
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  37  42  22 /  10  30  20   0
MLU  55  38  43  21 /  10  30  20   0
DEQ  48  29  39  17 /  20  30   0   0
TXK  50  32  39  20 /  10  30  10   0
ELD  51  34  40  20 /  10  30  10   0
TYR  56  34  40  21 /  10  30  10   0
GGG  57  35  41  21 /  10  30  20   0
LFK  63  41  44  24 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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