138
FXUS64 KSHV 131628
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
   possible across the Four State Region today.

 - More in the way of scattered convection on Monday before rain
   chances dwindle as the work week continues.

 - With lower rain chances during the week, temperatures should
   begin to warm with near Heat Advisory criteria possible later
   this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An upper-level trough with embedded closed low across eastern
Oklahoma into Texas to linger through Monday night allowing for
increased instability resulting in periods of mainly diurnally
driven convection today through Monday evening. Locally heavy
rainfall can be expected with some storms today, especially in the
vicinity of the upper-trough across southeast Oklahoma and
northeast Texas. Stronger convection to gradually diminish during
the evening hours with scattered lingering showers and embedded
thunderstorms possibly continuing through the early morning
hours. Overnight lows are forecast to average in the lower 70s.

Similar conditions expected again on Monday as upper-low remains
parked across Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Scattered diurnally
driven afternoon showers expected with conditions again improving
in the evening as the upper-low begins to shift northeast
into Missouri, marking the beginning of an overall pattern shift
across the ArkLaTex. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range
from the mid 80s across southeast Oklahoma where best rain chances
are expected to the the mid 90s across north Louisiana where
subsidence from an upper-ridge building west will become more
influential.

Upper-ridge to become established across the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing for more typical July hot and dry conditions
areawide. Some locations across the ArkLaTex could expect highs
in the upper 90s by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon heat index
values 105 to 107 degrees across much of north Louisiana.

Models are coming into agreement in bringing an easterly wave
across the northern gulf coast late in the work week allowing for
increased rain chances across mainly portions of Louisiana and
south Arkansas continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the 13/12Z TAFs, areas of the typical daybreak MVFR/IFR CIGs
are developing, looking to improve towards midmorning. North and
west however, CIG recovery will be short-lived at best, as an area
of showers and storms pushes north and east out of central Texas.
At this time, thunder impacts before 13/18Z look most likely at
KTXK, KTYR and possibly KGGG, reflected in TEMPO groups. Storms
will become more widespread into the afternoon and evening hours.
CIGs look to return to VFR overnight before lowering once again
towards daybreak tomorrow. Winds will become southwesterly and
increase to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts during the day, with
gusts of up to 15 kts possible, and stronger gusts possible in
the vicinity of thunderstorms.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm
or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and
excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  93  77 /  60  30  40  10
MLU  94  75  95  75 /  50  20  40  10
DEQ  87  70  87  70 /  70  50  50  20
TXK  93  73  92  74 /  60  40  40  20
ELD  94  72  93  72 /  60  30  50  10
TYR  90  73  90  74 /  60  40  40  10
GGG  92  73  92  74 /  60  40  40  10
LFK  94  73  93  74 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...26