Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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