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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06