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000
FXUS64 KSHV 041547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STOUT INVERSION WITNESSED ON OUR 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY ABOVE 15HDFT AND THUS...DESPITE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO SEE THE ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING THIS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ATTM. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM
6 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE AT 15Z ON TUE AND FOR THAT REASON...
WILL NEED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE SO ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.

LATEST 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SNAKING ITS WAY FROM SW MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
HEELS OF OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION AND/OR RAIN ON THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUST
TOO DRY.

WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME STRONG DECISIONS ON WINTER
STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT
THESE HAZARDS WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES INCLUDE DEWPOINT/WIND AND SKY GRIDS TO
MIMIC CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR REMAINS AT KTXK AND CIGS VARYING ABV AT KTYR WITH SITES MVFR
STRATUS...EXPECTING VFR 16-18Z. S/SW 8-12G20KTS. CLIMB WINDS ARE
SIMILAR SW AT 30KTS BY 2KFT NEAR AN INVERSION. THE DRY AIR ABV WILL
MIX WELL ERODING CLOUDS. THE MID LEVELS SIMILAR AROUND 30KTS UP TO
12KFT...THEN VEERING TO W INCREASING 40-85KTS BY ABV FL300.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN 05/03-06Z WITH MORE
STRATUS AND THEN AS A COLD FRONT NOSES INTO THE AREA WE ARE LOOKING
AT NW GUSTY FROM 12Z-18Z WITH OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  62  64  40  42 /  10  10  70 100  80
MLU  82  66  70  41  41 /  10  10  50  90  90
DEQ  74  45  48  35  38 /  10  20 100  90  80
TXK  76  50  52  37  38 /  10  10  90 100  80
ELD  77  58  61  38  38 /  10  10  80 100  80
TYR  81  49  50  33  37 /  10  10  70 100  80
GGG  82  52  54  38  39 /  10  10  70 100  80
LFK  83  65  66  42  43 /  10  10  50  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/24