Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010030 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 01/18Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE
TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 02/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  68  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  55  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  60  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  62  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  61  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  67  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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