Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 030005 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...WITH IT EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO AND
WINDS DECOUPLE...PATCHY FG AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CONVECTION AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MIDMORNING. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S
OF I-20...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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