Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181739
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 19/18Z...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR
FLIGHT WEATHER DUE TO CIGS...RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
WINDOWS OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH RAIN BEGINNING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AFTER 06Z. ALL AREAS
CAN EXPECT RAIN BY 15Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJSO TO KAEX LINE.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 KFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
AND SOUTHERN AR TO AROUND 10 KFT DEEP EAST TEXAS. SURFACE WIND
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHWRS IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR SERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA IN GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWRD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXCEPT FOR
THOSE FAR SE PARISHES. OTHER CHANGES TO NOTE INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  50  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  48  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  48  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  54  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  58  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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