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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  81  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  70  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  76  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  76  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  82  68  83  64  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
GGG  78  68  82  65  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
LFK  88  72  86  67  90 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13