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000
FXUS64 KSHV 072338
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A 1017MB HIGH PRESSURE AT KMSY DRIFTING
EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH UNDER CIRRUS IS DEEPENING. OUR VFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND A BIT MORE PATCHY
BR/FG WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY LVL FLOW UP TO 5KFT. SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS 09-13Z SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15 OR 16Z...BUT COULD LINGER AS
SCT SHWRS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DURING TOMORROW WITH WEAK FROPA OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHWRS ENDING
DURING EARLY SUNDAY FROM W TO E. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MOISTURE WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE AREA WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THICK HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER...THUNDER IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. NOT
A BIG COOL DOWN WITH THIS FRONT...AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
STILL SHOW THE TROUGH BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. THINK MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE UNTIL THE SYSTEM KICKS NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
THEN...THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WHICH SHOULD BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS/FOG STILL AFFECTING A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM TOLEDO BEND EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER BUT THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE PER LATEST VIS SAT TRENDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
08/06Z. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WILL RIDE NWD FROM THE GULF OF MX ON THE SLY
LOW LVL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING THE OCCURENCE OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS PRESENCE OF OTHER
CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. ANY MVFR/IFR VSBYS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN BELOW
VFR AS SCT SHWRS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  67  44  58  44 /   0  50  60  20  10
MLU  43  69  48  62  46 /   0  20  50  30  10
DEQ  40  60  38  55  38 /   0  60  50  10  10
TXK  44  64  42  54  42 /   0  60  60  10  10
ELD  40  66  42  57  43 /   0  40  50  20  10
TYR  47  62  37  55  42 /   0  60  50  10  10
GGG  46  65  40  56  42 /   0  60  60  20  10
LFK  48  68  43  58  44 /   0  50  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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