


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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159 FXUS64 KSHV 140517 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - One more day of mostly scattered diurnally driven convection before we see an uptick in temperatures. - Some areas could see temperatures nearing and or exceeding triple digits on Tuesday but especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Could tropical moisture be in our future for late week? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Another active day of storms on Sunday with some of these producing strong and damaging wind gusts uprooting trees across portions of Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana. Scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible on Monday. While the best upper forcing will be found near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor given the remaining shear axis across this area, PWAT values near 2 inches across our entire forecast area will await sufficient daytime instability for the generation of this convection but storms may be ongoing early closer to the shear axis across our west and northwest zones. By Tuesday, drier air begins to infiltrate our region from the south in the form of lower PWATS as we begin to become more under the influence of a weak upper level ridge extending from the Mid- Atlantic Region into the Tenn Valley and into Southeast Texas. Isolated to widely scattered storms will still be possible but will be tied to a weak shear axis across our far northern zones and across our far southern zones. Any semblance of the shear axis is gone by Wednesday but the ridge is still in place. Also on Wednesday we begin to look across the Northeast and Northern Gulf Coast where an easterly wave will be trying to become better organized as it moves closer to the Southeast Louisiana Coast. The GFS tries to bring this system under the ridge into SE TX by late Thu into early Friday. Both the operational ECMWF and NAM output have similar solutions but how close this system remains to the coast and just how well developed the system can become will determine our impacts from such a system. For now, NBM is depicting increasing rain chances across our far southeast zones by Thursday and across our eastern half Friday and Saturday. This should help with the heat as we could be looking at Heat Advisories becoming necessary as early as Tuesday across our eastern half and that would likely continue into at least Wednesday. 13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Similar to conditions yesterday, ceilings will be mostly VFR with a line of thunderstorms moving across the region. These storms will weaken through most of the evening, but could still briefly worsen conditions as they pass over airports. Surface winds will generally be light and southerly with lowering ceilings as we get closer to sunrise tomorrow. MVFR/IFR ceilings should lift back to VFR ahead of the next round of showers, which I have coming into the region by 14/18z. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening across portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North Louisiana for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which may result in localized flooding. /15/ 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 77 97 78 / 30 20 10 0 MLU 95 75 97 76 / 30 20 20 0 DEQ 88 70 90 71 / 50 30 30 10 TXK 94 74 96 76 / 40 30 20 0 ELD 92 72 95 73 / 40 20 20 10 TYR 92 74 93 74 / 40 20 10 0 GGG 92 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 LFK 93 74 95 74 / 30 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...57